The United States wheat exports from June 2025 through February 2026 totaled 710 million bushels, a 19% increase over the same period last year, suggesting the U.S. remains competitively priced in global markets despite abundant world supplies. Read here: https://arec.tennessee.edu/extension/tennessee-market-highlights/crop-comments/#:~:text=April%202026%20Wheat%20Outlook,more%20profitable%20corn%20and%20soybeans.

However, a rapidly intensifying drought across the Southern Plains is raising concerns. This deterioration threatens the 2026 winter wheat crop and is adding a notable weather premium to wheat futures.

For Tennessee and Southeastern wheat producers, careful enterprise budgeting is critical as the 2026 growing season progresses, given the combined pressures of record-low national planting intentions, a $5.00 farm price (a six-year low), elevated input costs, and an uncertain weather outlook.

Wheat and other small grains typically have a relatively low daily water requirement during the grain-fill period—approximately 0.2 inches per day—which generally spans from flowering through early dough.

Temperature makes a big difference in how much water wheat needs during grain fill. When daytime highs are around 72–75°F, crop water use is relatively low. However, once temperatures rise to ~80°F, daily water demand can increase to nearly 0.3 inches per day.

IF those higher temperatures persist, applying about 1 inch of water would typically meet the crop’s needs for roughly 4–5 days. Because grain fill is a yield-sensitive period, careful irrigation management during this stage is critical for maintaining high and consistent yields.

Another challenge during a dry spell is disease pressure—and that can sound counterintuitive. After all, disease risk is usually lower in dry years than in wet years, and that’s generally true.

However, when irrigation is used during a dry season, the situation can change quickly. If unexpected rainfall occurs soon after an irrigation event, the added moisture and longer periods of canopy wetness can create favorable conditions for disease development, sometimes leading to higher-than-anticipated disease pressure even in an otherwise dry year.

The most important consideration is to maintain adequate soil moisture from flowering through early grain fill so the crop can meet its evapotranspiration (ET) demand. Doing so supports yield during this highly sensitive period and can also help avoid extended periods of excessive canopy moisture, which reduces the risk of many common disease infections.

Previous research result, read here: https://sites.udel.edu/weeklycropupdate/?p=11779 suggests limiting any additional irrigation for roughly 1–2 weeks before and 1–2 weeks after flowering. During this window, it is also important to scout fields regularly to determine whether changing conditions warrant extra irrigation events.

Be prepared to apply fungicides if wetter conditions occur following irrigation, particularly during flowering, and particularly if you have a variety that is susceptible to head scab. See previous blog article and video on wheat disease resources here: https://news.utcrops.com/2026/04/resources-for-wheat-fungicide-decisions/. Read here for more information on irrigation and potential disease risk: ttps://www.canr.msu.edu/news/considerations_for_raising_irrigated_wheat

IF interested in “estimating” either potential yield or seasonal wheat water requirements then check out this link: https://waterquality.montana.edu/farm-ranch/irrigation/wheat/wheat-irrigation.html

Final take away, given a silt-loam soil and center-pivot irrigation, a practical target is to schedule about 0.20–0.25” of water per day when temperatures exceed 80°F and no rainfall is expected.

When irrigating, always keep these points in mind:

• Soil type: Adjust irrigation timing and frequency based on your soil (e.g., silt loam vs. sandy).
• Effective rainfall: Credit only the portion of rainfall that infiltrates and can make its way to the root zone.
• Pivot efficiency: Ensure your irrigation system is operating efficiently—ideally ≥ 80% application efficiency.
• Avoid overwatering: Excess irrigation can cause waterlog and increase disease risk.