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Tennessee Market Highlights

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Corn and cotton were up and soybeans and wheat were down for the week.

On Thursday, the USDA released the October Crop Production and WASDE reports. After the report corn and soybean prices were up cotton and wheat were neutral to slightly down.

U.S. corn production was projected at 14.8 billion bushels, up 1% compared to last year. National average yield was projected at an all-time record of 180.7 bu/acre, down 0.6 bu/acre compared to the  September estimate. Tennessee corn yield was projected at 174 bu/acre unchanged compared to last month. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

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Supply and Demand Estimates and Profitability Outlook

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The report is prepared monthly by Dr. Aaron Smith and Chuck Danehower.

 

October 11, 2018 – USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates

Corn

Market Reaction: December 2018 corn futures closed up 6 ½ cents at $3.69 ¼ with a trading range for the day of $3.60 ¼ to $3.73. December 2019 corn futures closed up 5 ½ cents at $4.02 ¼ with a trading range for the day of $3.94 ½ to $4.03. The market reacted positively to the small yield reduction on this month’s report. The increase in beginning stocks was factored into the market from the release of the September Grain Stocks report. A small increase in exports provides some hope for higher prices.

USDA Summary: This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, increased exports, reduced feed and residual use and larger ending stocks.  Corn production is forecast at 14.778 billion bushels, down 49 million on a reduced yield forecast.  Harvested area is virtually unchanged from last month.  Corn supplies are forecast record high, as a smaller crop is more than offset by an increase in beginning stocks based on the September 28 Grain Stocks report.  Exports are raised 75 million bushels reflecting U.S. price competitiveness and reduced exports for Russia.  Projected feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels based on a lower crop and indicated disappearance during 2017/18. Corn ending stocks for 2018/19 are raised 39 million bushels.  The projected midpoint for the season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at a range of $3.00 to $4.00 per bushel.  Continue reading at Supply and Demand Estimates and Profitability Outlook.

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October 1 Crop Production Forecast

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Released: October 11, 2018

October 1 Crop Production Forecast

Corn production in Tennessee is forecast at 119 million bushels, down 6 percent from the September forecast and down 2 percent from the  previous crop. Yield was estimated at 174 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month and up 3 bushels from the 2017 level. Acres for harvest as grain were estimated at 685,000 acres, down 25,000 acres from 2017. The U.S. corn production is forecast at 14.8 billion bushels, down slightly from the September forecast and up 1 percent from 2017. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 180.7 bushels per acre, down 0.6 bushels from last month and up 4.1 bushels from 2017. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 81.8 million acres, down slightly from the September forecast and down 1 percent from 2017. Continue reading at OctCrop18_TN.

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Tennessee Weekly Crop & Weather Report

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FARMERS RETURN TO FIELDS

Unseasonably warm temperatures and drier conditions allowed farmers to return to their fields. Corn, cotton, and soybean harvest all made excellent harvest, but some producers were worried that the recent heavy rains had adversely affected their yields. The high temperatures stressed livestock. There were 5.5 days suitable for field work, compared to 1.3 last week. Topsoil moisture rated 4 percent short, 79 percent adequate, and 17 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture rated 6 percent short, 78 percent adequate, and 16 percent surplus. Continue reading at TN_10_09_18. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-10-09-2018.

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Tennessee Market Highlights

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Corn, soybeans, and wheat were up; cotton was down for the week.

A good bounce back week for grain and oilseed futures prices after last week’s bearish USDA stocks report. The rally this week was partially driven by a new trade deal (USMCA formally NAFTA) with Canada and Mexico as well as harvest weather concerns across the Midwest. As harvest progresses it remains unlikely that a significant rally in soybean or corn cash  prices occurs – due primarily to the size of this year’s crop – without movement in a trade deal with China, which does not appear to
be forthcoming. As such, producers should consider storage or delayed pricing alternatives that can extend the marketing interval.Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

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