Supply and Demand Estimates and Profitability Outlook

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The report is prepared monthly by Dr. Aaron Smith and Chuck Danehower.


October 11, 2018 – USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates


Market Reaction: December 2018 corn futures closed up 6 ½ cents at $3.69 ¼ with a trading range for the day of $3.60 ¼ to $3.73. December 2019 corn futures closed up 5 ½ cents at $4.02 ¼ with a trading range for the day of $3.94 ½ to $4.03. The market reacted positively to the small yield reduction on this month’s report. The increase in beginning stocks was factored into the market from the release of the September Grain Stocks report. A small increase in exports provides some hope for higher prices.

USDA Summary: This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, increased exports, reduced feed and residual use and larger ending stocks.  Corn production is forecast at 14.778 billion bushels, down 49 million on a reduced yield forecast.  Harvested area is virtually unchanged from last month.  Corn supplies are forecast record high, as a smaller crop is more than offset by an increase in beginning stocks based on the September 28 Grain Stocks report.  Exports are raised 75 million bushels reflecting U.S. price competitiveness and reduced exports for Russia.  Projected feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels based on a lower crop and indicated disappearance during 2017/18. Corn ending stocks for 2018/19 are raised 39 million bushels.  The projected midpoint for the season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at a range of $3.00 to $4.00 per bushel.  Continue reading at Supply and Demand Estimates and Profitability Outlook.

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