FARMERS RETURN TO FIELDS

Drier conditions brought high temperatures and allowed farmers back into their fields. Soybean producers were wrapping up planting while corn producers were applying fungicides. Most farmers are reporting that their crops are looking good. The increased moisture levels from recent rains have had a slight adverse effect on tobacco. The higher temperatures slowed pasture growth, but, for the most part, pastures remained in good shape. There were 5.5 days suitable for field work. Topsoil moisture was 4 percent short, 87 percent adequate and 9 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture was 4 percent short, 88 percent adequate and 8 percent surplus. Continue reading at TN_07_17_17.  The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-07-17-2017.

Corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat were down for the week.

Grain and oilseed market’s turned bearish this week, due in part to the USDA’s July 12 WASDE report (details of the report for corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat can be found online at: https://ag.tennessee.edu/arec/Pages/MonthlyCropComments.aspx). The report projected 2017/18 marketing year domestic ending stocks of: corn at 2.325 billion bushels (up 215 million bushels from last month); cotton at 5.3 million bales (down 0.2 million bales from last month); soybeans at 460 million bushels (down 35 million bushels from last month); and wheat at 938 million bushels up 14 million bushels from last month). Foreign stocks (and change from the previous marketing year) were projected at: 5.58 billion bushels of corn (down 1.007 billion bushels); 83.43 million bales of cotton (down 3.64 million bales); 2.976 billion bushels of soybeans (down 96 million bush-els); and 8.637 billion bushels of wheat (up 340 million bushels). Overall, the WASDE report showed large domestic and foreign reserves for all four commodities. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

The MonthlyCropOutlook071217 is a summary of the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Domestic balance sheets for corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat are displayed along with price reaction in futures markets for each commodity on the day of the report release. Additionally, supply and demand estimates for key importing and exporting countries are provided for the current month along with change in estimates from the previous report.

The Profitability Outlook section contains estimated returns per acre for each commodity based  on 2016 Tennessee state average/trend yields and current price offerings (note: cotton prices include a seed and hauling rebate). Variable expenses are based on the University of Tennessee Extension 2017 Row Crop Budgets. Prices are updated monthly; expenses are updated as warranted during the year and may be different than the expenses contained in the 2017 Row Crop Budgets. This section provides an estimation of the current relative profitability amongst major row crops in Tennessee.

The report is prepared monthly by Dr. Aaron Smith and Chuck Danehower.

RELEASED: July 12, 2017                                                                                                             USDA-NASS

Tennessee Winter Wheat Production Forecast down 16 percent from 2016

According to the Tennessee Field Office of the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service Tennessee farmers expect to produce 20.5 million bushels of winter wheat from 285,000 acres for harvest this season. At this level, production would be down 16 percent from 2016 and down 5 percent from the June forecast. Based upon crop conditions as of July 1, growers expect a yield of 72.0 bushels per acre, down 1.0 bushels from 2016 and down 1.0 bushels from last month’s forecast. As of July 3, 96% of the crop was harvested, compared to 93% last year and 86% for the five-year average.

Winter wheat production for the Nation was forecast at 1.28 billion bushels, up 2 percent from the June 1 forecast and down 23 percent from 2016. Based on July 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at 49.7 bushels per acre, up 0.8 bushel from last month and down 5.6 bushels from last year. The expected area to be harvested for grain or seed totals 25.8 million acres, down 15 percent from last year.