Corn, soybeans, and wheat were up; cotton was down for the week.

Has a bottom been established in soybean and corn markets? The current low in the  December corn contract is $3.50 ¼ established on July 12. The current low in the  November soybean contract is $8.26 ¼ established on July 16. For corn, the supply and demand fundamentals paint a much more bullish picture than soybeans. For example, global corn stocks are projected down over 1.5 billion bushels year-over-year, while global soybean stocks are projected up 82 million bushels. Global demand for both commodities remains strong, however trade disputes continue to weigh heavily on agricultural commodities. Approximately 47% of US soybean production and 15% of corn production are exported annually, as such disruptions to global trade adversely affects soybean prices more than corn prices. At this point in time, a swift resolution to the trade war with China appears unlikely. Whether a bottom has been established in corn and soybeans will depend on further escalation of the trade war and how weather progresses between now and harvest. Currently, a stronger argument can be made for a bottom in the corn market than the soybean market. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

SOME CROPS STARTING TO SHOW STRESS; HAY HARVESTED

Even though there were some scattered thundershowers across the State, mostly hot, dry weather across most of the State last week caused some crops to start showing signs of stress. Some showers are needed to help replenish soil moisture. The drier weather did, however, allow for active hay harvest. There were 5.6 days suitable for field work. Topsoil was 2 percent very short, 12 percent short, and 77 percent adequate, and 9 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture was 2 percent very short, 13 percent short, 79 percent adequate, and 6 percent surplus. Continue reading at TN_07_16_18. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-07-16-2018.

Corn, soybeans, and wheat were down; cotton was up for the week. Another substantial drop in corn, soybean, and wheat futures prices this week as a result of positive weather forecasts and an intensifying tit-for-tat trade war with China. Cash soybean offerings in west Tennessee have dipped below $8. Prices are currently searching for a bottom as we are treading in untested waters from a technical standpoint.

In price risk management you often have to take the good with the bad when it comes to price fluctuations. To highlight this phenomenon one only has to look to the soybean and cotton futures markets from March 2018 to today. On March 1, November 2018 soybean futures closed at $10.38. This Friday (July 13) the November soybean contract closed at $8.34, a decrease of $2.04 (20% decrease). Conversely, on March 1, December 2018 cotton futures closed at 77.18 cents. This Friday (July 13) the December contract  closed at 87.84 cents, an increase of 10.66 cents (14% increase). Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

RELEASED: July 12, 2018

Tennessee Winter Wheat Production Down from 2017

NASHVILLE, Tenn. – The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics  Service  (NASS) released its July Crop Production report today, based on the Agricultural Yield survey  conducted at the beginning of month. The report includes information on Tennessee’s winter wheat  forecast.

Tennessee farmers expect to produce 18.6 million bushels of winter wheat from 295,000 acres for  harvest this season. At this level, production would be down three percent from 2017 and down 17  percent from the June forecast. Based upon crop conditions as of July 1, growers expect a yield of  63 bushels per acre, down seven bushels from 2017 and down 12 bushels from last month’s forecast. Continue reading →

At the moment, cotton appears to be growing almost as fast as palmer amaranth; rains and abnormally warm temperatures have promoted rapid growth and the second (or third) application of Plant Growth Regulators (PGRs) are currently being applied.  With our current growing conditions, forecast, and planted cultivars, I’m applying and recommending aggressive rates; now that the root zone has expanded and N uptake has begun to increase exponentially, expect rapid plant growth to continue in areas which have adequate moisture.  This blog highlights points to be considered when attempting to regulate growth in 2018. Continue reading →