Corn and cotton were up, soybeans and wheat were down for the week.

Futures prices declined for the week as tepid weekly export sales numbers for corn and soybeans resulted in further concerns about dispersing this year’s large domestic crop. Soybean and wheat export commitments (outstanding sales and accumulated exports) are well behind the pace to meet USDA projections. Currently, wheat export commitments are 45% of the USDA’s marketing year goal. This compares unfavorably to last year at 68% and the five year average of 64% for the same time period. Similarly, soybean export commitments are at 38% of USDA’s marketing year total, compared to 50% last year and a five year average of 57%. Chinese tariffs have obviously played a substantial role in reduced soybean export commitments. However, these are troubling numbers during harvest when export sales are typically at their highest. Reduced exports will increase domestic carry-over and further decrease cash prices. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

University of Tennessee Extension is hosting 5 meetings to assist producers and landowners with finalizing their decisions regarding generic base acres and seed cotton as a result of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018. The meetings will provide information on: updating yields, options for reallocating generic base, 2018 ARC and PLC program selection for seed cotton base acres, and the short & long term implications of the decisions for landowners and cotton, grain, and oilseed producers. Also on the program will be how to handle seed damage through crop insurance and details on signing up for the Market Facilitation Program

For producers and landowners that have already made reallocation and program election decisions, the meetings will provide an opportunity to review (and change) decisions based on: 1) updated 2018 county yield data; and 2) recent policy developments in the 2019-2023 Farm Bill negotiations.

The sign up deadline at FSA service centers is December 7^th. Meetings will be held in Dyersburg, Somerville, Alamo, Brownsville, and Jackson (October 29-31; See Generic Base Meetings Flier 2018). We encourage attendees to register so we can get an accurate head count for meals.

Our 2018 Corn Silage hybrid trials data has been finalized and is now available on search.utcrops.com/corn-silage . Here you can find the full pdf version of the report  as well as all tables in either excel format or as web-friendly, sortable and searchable tables.

The online tables have some nice features for finding the data you want quickly and easily.  Here are a few tips for viewing online.

• Be sure to scroll to the right to view all columns.
• Use the “previous” and “next” button to see all entries.
• By default, columns are sorted by yield. If you’d like to sort  by a different column, just click on the column title.
• If you are looking for a specific hybrid or trait package, the search feature is especially useful.  Just type what you are looking for into the “Search” box at the top right of the table.  For example, typing “TN” brings up all of our TN experimental lines in the test while typing “LL” displays all hybrids that had LL listed in their herbicide trait package.

New this year, we have 1 yr, 2 yr, and 3 yr data in the same table so that you can easily see which hybrids have been evaluated over multiple years and how they performed. Mean separation (MS) letters are also now given for each trait evaluated, rather than just yield. This allows for easy identification of top-performing hybrids for either yield, agronomic, or quality traits. Hybrids that have any MS letter in common, within a column, are not significantly different for that trait.

Be on the lookout for our corn grain prelim report to be posted within the next week!

RAINS INTERUPT HARVEST

Rains across the state brought most harvest activities to a halt. Cotton producers feared that these rains would have an adverse effect on their yields, but corn and soybean producers remained mostly positive about their yields. Pasture conditions remained high with the extra moisture, and last week’s cooler temperatures were good for livestock. There were 3.3 days suitable for fieldwork. Topsoil moisture rated 1 percent short, 77 percent adequate, and 22 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture rated 4 percent short, 82 percent adequate, and 14 percent surplus. Continue reading at TN_10_22_18. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-10-22-2018.

Corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat were down for the week.

On Monday, soybean futures were up over 20 cents due to harvest weather concerns. On Thursday, abysmal export sales and improved weather forecasts triggered dramatic declines in soybean futures. U.S. soybean exports had remained strong throughout the summer with May through August exports to all countries up 53% compared to 2017.  Substantial year-over-year increases were noted for Argentina (up 204k MT), Vietnam (up 466k MT), Netherlands (up 807k MT), Indonesia (up
300k MT), Egypt (up 598k MT), Mexico (up 343k MT), Taiwan (up 567k MT), Spain (up 277k MT), Iran (up 418k MT), Italy (up 209k MT), and Pakistan (up 598k MT). These increased exports were three times more than the reduction in China’s soybean imports from the U.S. for the same time period (1.384 MMT lower than 2017). Sales to multiple countries is beneficial long term, reducing the reliance on a single export market. However, increased exports to these countries can be largely attributed to low prices compared to South American supplies. Prices in Brazil and Argentina are $1.50-$2.50 per bushel higher than U.S. prices, largely due to Chinese purchases.

The key marketing period for U.S. soybeans is October through February. With low South American supplies, at this time of year, global purchases should favor the United States. However, historically the majority of U.S. soybean purchases and export shipments at this time of year have been made by China. With the 25% retaliatory tariff on soybeans remaining in place, export business to China is likely to be substantially lower than in past years. As such, due to the size of this year’s crop (record U.S.  average yield), alternative export markets will be critical to  maintain/improve domestic prices. Unfortunately, the past two weeks have seen back-to-back disappointing weekly net export sales and it is very unlikely that other countries will be unable to make up for the loss of U.S. exports to the Chinese market. Without substantial improvements in export sales and shipments it will be difficult
for prices to rally. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

Dr. Tyson Raper discusses cotton harvest in our latest Call of the Week. Tried a different approach with this one, recording live from the cotton field. If you can forgive the wind in the background, you’ll find some great information. Click to listen.

HARVEST CONTINUES FORWARD

Tennessee producers were able to contribute a large portion of the week to harvesting thanks to 5.1 days suitable for fieldwork. Reports indicate that some corn harvest is complete and nearing completion. Many  welcome the cooler temperatures. Some report concerns of damage to crops and pasture due to recent rain. Yields are looking promising and winter animals are set to go out. Topsoil moisture rated 3 percent short, 75 percent adequate, and 22 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture rated 5 percent short, 81 percent adequate, and 14 percent surplus.  Continue reading at TN_10_15_18. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at  CropProg-10-15-2018.