Grass weeds have been a real issue for farmers as they try to move combines through the field to harvest. Dr. Larry Steckel explains why we’re seeing an uptick in grass weed populations and offers weed control recommendations to keep in mind for next spring. Click to listen. Continue reading
RAINS INTERUPT HARVEST
Rains across the state brought most harvest activities to a halt. Cotton producers feared that these rains would have an adverse effect on their yields, but corn and soybean producers remained mostly positive about their yields. Pasture conditions remained high with the extra moisture, and last week’s cooler temperatures were good for livestock. There were 3.3 days suitable for fieldwork. Topsoil moisture rated 1 percent short, 77 percent adequate, and 22 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture rated 4 percent short, 82 percent adequate, and 14 percent surplus. Continue reading at TN_10_22_18. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-10-22-2018.
Corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat were down for the week.
On Monday, soybean futures were up over 20 cents due to harvest weather concerns. On Thursday, abysmal export sales and improved weather forecasts triggered dramatic declines in soybean futures. U.S. soybean exports had remained strong throughout the summer with May through August exports to all countries up 53% compared to 2017. Substantial year-over-year increases were noted for Argentina (up 204k MT), Vietnam (up 466k MT), Netherlands (up 807k MT), Indonesia (up
300k MT), Egypt (up 598k MT), Mexico (up 343k MT), Taiwan (up 567k MT), Spain (up 277k MT), Iran (up 418k MT), Italy (up 209k MT), and Pakistan (up 598k MT). These increased exports were three times more than the reduction in China’s soybean imports from the U.S. for the same time period (1.384 MMT lower than 2017). Sales to multiple countries is beneficial long term, reducing the reliance on a single export market. However, increased exports to these countries can be largely attributed to low prices compared to South American supplies. Prices in Brazil and Argentina are $1.50-$2.50 per bushel higher than U.S. prices, largely due to Chinese purchases.
The key marketing period for U.S. soybeans is October through February. With low South American supplies, at this time of year, global purchases should favor the United States. However, historically the majority of U.S. soybean purchases and export shipments at this time of year have been made by China. With the 25% retaliatory tariff on soybeans remaining in place, export business to China is likely to be substantially lower than in past years. As such, due to the size of this year’s crop (record U.S. average yield), alternative export markets will be critical to maintain/improve domestic prices. Unfortunately, the past two weeks have seen back-to-back disappointing weekly net export sales and it is very unlikely that other countries will be unable to make up for the loss of U.S. exports to the Chinese market. Without substantial improvements in export sales and shipments it will be difficult
for prices to rally. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.
Dr. Tyson Raper discusses cotton harvest in our latest Call of the Week. Tried a different approach with this one, recording live from the cotton field. If you can forgive the wind in the background, you’ll find some great information. Click to listen.
HARVEST CONTINUES FORWARD
Tennessee producers were able to contribute a large portion of the week to harvesting thanks to 5.1 days suitable for fieldwork. Reports indicate that some corn harvest is complete and nearing completion. Many welcome the cooler temperatures. Some report concerns of damage to crops and pasture due to recent rain. Yields are looking promising and winter animals are set to go out. Topsoil moisture rated 3 percent short, 75 percent adequate, and 22 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture rated 5 percent short, 81 percent adequate, and 14 percent surplus. Continue reading at TN_10_15_18. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-10-15-2018.
Corn and cotton were up and soybeans and wheat were down for the week.
On Thursday, the USDA released the October Crop Production and WASDE reports. After the report corn and soybean prices were up cotton and wheat were neutral to slightly down.
U.S. corn production was projected at 14.8 billion bushels, up 1% compared to last year. National average yield was projected at an all-time record of 180.7 bu/acre, down 0.6 bu/acre compared to the September estimate. Tennessee corn yield was projected at 174 bu/acre unchanged compared to last month. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.
After harvest is the perfect time to take soil samples not only for nutrient analysis but also to look for pathogens. You’ll never know if you have silent yield robbers lurking in the soil unless you look for them – Take the test, beat the pest! Continue reading
USDA Summary: This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, increased exports, reduced feed and residual use and larger ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 14.778 billion bushels, down 49 million on a reduced yield forecast. Harvested area is virtually unchanged from last month. Corn supplies are forecast record high, as a smaller crop is more than offset by an increase in beginning stocks based on the September 28 Grain Stocks report. Exports are raised 75 million bushels reflecting U.S. price competitiveness and reduced exports for Russia. Projected feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels based on a lower crop and indicated disappearance during 2017/18. Corn ending stocks for 2018/19 are raised 39 million bushels. The projected midpoint for the season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at a range of $3.00 to $4.00 per bushel. Continue reading at Supply and Demand Estimates and Profitability Outlook.