RAINS INTERUPT HARVEST

Rains across the state brought most harvest activities to a halt. Cotton producers feared that these rains would have an adverse effect on their yields, but corn and soybean producers remained mostly positive about their yields. Pasture conditions remained high with the extra moisture, and last week’s cooler temperatures were good for livestock. There were 3.3 days suitable for fieldwork. Topsoil moisture rated 1 percent short, 77 percent adequate, and 22 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture rated 4 percent short, 82 percent adequate, and 14 percent surplus. Continue reading at TN_10_22_18. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-10-22-2018.

Corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat were down for the week.

On Monday, soybean futures were up over 20 cents due to harvest weather concerns. On Thursday, abysmal export sales and improved weather forecasts triggered dramatic declines in soybean futures. U.S. soybean exports had remained strong throughout the summer with May through August exports to all countries up 53% compared to 2017.  Substantial year-over-year increases were noted for Argentina (up 204k MT), Vietnam (up 466k MT), Netherlands (up 807k MT), Indonesia (up
300k MT), Egypt (up 598k MT), Mexico (up 343k MT), Taiwan (up 567k MT), Spain (up 277k MT), Iran (up 418k MT), Italy (up 209k MT), and Pakistan (up 598k MT). These increased exports were three times more than the reduction in China’s soybean imports from the U.S. for the same time period (1.384 MMT lower than 2017). Sales to multiple countries is beneficial long term, reducing the reliance on a single export market. However, increased exports to these countries can be largely attributed to low prices compared to South American supplies. Prices in Brazil and Argentina are $1.50-$2.50 per bushel higher than U.S. prices, largely due to Chinese purchases.

The key marketing period for U.S. soybeans is October through February. With low South American supplies, at this time of year, global purchases should favor the United States. However, historically the majority of U.S. soybean purchases and export shipments at this time of year have been made by China. With the 25% retaliatory tariff on soybeans remaining in place, export business to China is likely to be substantially lower than in past years. As such, due to the size of this year’s crop (record U.S.  average yield), alternative export markets will be critical to  maintain/improve domestic prices. Unfortunately, the past two weeks have seen back-to-back disappointing weekly net export sales and it is very unlikely that other countries will be unable to make up for the loss of U.S. exports to the Chinese market. Without substantial improvements in export sales and shipments it will be difficult
for prices to rally. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

HARVEST CONTINUES FORWARD

Tennessee producers were able to contribute a large portion of the week to harvesting thanks to 5.1 days suitable for fieldwork. Reports indicate that some corn harvest is complete and nearing completion. Many  welcome the cooler temperatures. Some report concerns of damage to crops and pasture due to recent rain. Yields are looking promising and winter animals are set to go out. Topsoil moisture rated 3 percent short, 75 percent adequate, and 22 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture rated 5 percent short, 81 percent adequate, and 14 percent surplus.  Continue reading at TN_10_15_18. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at  CropProg-10-15-2018.

Corn and cotton were up and soybeans and wheat were down for the week.

On Thursday, the USDA released the October Crop Production and WASDE reports. After the report corn and soybean prices were up cotton and wheat were neutral to slightly down.

U.S. corn production was projected at 14.8 billion bushels, up 1% compared to last year. National average yield was projected at an all-time record of 180.7 bu/acre, down 0.6 bu/acre compared to the  September estimate. Tennessee corn yield was projected at 174 bu/acre unchanged compared to last month. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

Released: October 11, 2018

October 1 Crop Production Forecast

Corn production in Tennessee is forecast at 119 million bushels, down 6 percent from the September forecast and down 2 percent from the  previous crop. Yield was estimated at 174 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month and up 3 bushels from the 2017 level. Acres for harvest as grain were estimated at 685,000 acres, down 25,000 acres from 2017. The U.S. corn production is forecast at 14.8 billion bushels, down slightly from the September forecast and up 1 percent from 2017. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 180.7 bushels per acre, down 0.6 bushels from last month and up 4.1 bushels from 2017. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 81.8 million acres, down slightly from the September forecast and down 1 percent from 2017. Continue reading at OctCrop18_TN.

FARMERS RETURN TO FIELDS

Unseasonably warm temperatures and drier conditions allowed farmers to return to their fields. Corn, cotton, and soybean harvest all made excellent harvest, but some producers were worried that the recent heavy rains had adversely affected their yields. The high temperatures stressed livestock. There were 5.5 days suitable for field work, compared to 1.3 last week. Topsoil moisture rated 4 percent short, 79 percent adequate, and 17 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture rated 6 percent short, 78 percent adequate, and 16 percent surplus. Continue reading at TN_10_09_18. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-10-09-2018.

Corn, soybeans, and wheat were up; cotton was down for the week.

A good bounce back week for grain and oilseed futures prices after last week’s bearish USDA stocks report. The rally this week was partially driven by a new trade deal (USMCA formally NAFTA) with Canada and Mexico as well as harvest weather concerns across the Midwest. As harvest progresses it remains unlikely that a significant rally in soybean or corn cash  prices occurs – due primarily to the size of this year’s crop – without movement in a trade deal with China, which does not appear to
be forthcoming. As such, producers should consider storage or delayed pricing alternatives that can extend the marketing interval.Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.