Corn was mixed; cotton was down; soybeans and wheat were up for the week.

For corn and soybean producers, activity in futures markets in February is very important. For Tennessee producers, projected crop insurance prices and volatility factors are determined from February 1-28. The projected price will set revenue guarantees and potentially affect planting decisions. At the start of February 2023, December 2023 corn futures were slightly above ($5.94) last years projected crop insurance price of $5.90 per bushel and November 2023 soybean futures ($13.65) were well below last year’s futures price of $14.40. The direction of prices from now until the end of February will be key for producers when examining risk management and marketing strategies for the 2023 crop. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

Cotton was up; wheat and soybeans were down; and corn was mixed for the week.

Compared to the previous five years, 2021 and 2022 corn and soybean harvest futures prices experienced increased trading ranges. December 2022 corn futures, from December 1, 2021 to contract expiration, had a trading range of $2.23 ($5.43 to $7.66). November 2022 soybean futures, from November 1, 2021 to contract expiration, had a trading range of $3.81 ($12.02 to $15.81). Tight U.S. stocks, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, global inflation, supply chain disruptions, and drought in the U.S. and South America have propelled prices higher but have also increased volatility. The 2021 and 2022 December contracts had 49 and 65 trading days with moves of more than 10 cents up or down. The previous five years had a total of 54 trading days with a greater than 10-cent move. Similarly, in 2021 and 2022, the November soybean contract had 45 and 74 trading days with a greater than 20-cent up or down move. For the previous five years, the November soybean contract had a total of 64 days with a greater than 20-cent up or down move. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

Corn was up; wheat and soybeans were mixed; and cotton was down for the week.

The USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks Report was released on Thursday. The report estimated corn stored on December 1, 2022, totaled 10.8 billion bushels, down 7 percent from the previous year. The September-November 2022 indicated disappearance was 4.30 billion bushels, compared with 4.67 billion bushels during the same period last year. Soybeans stored on December 1, 2022, totaled 3.02 billion bushels, down 4 percent from the previous year. Indicated disappearance for September-November 2022 totaled 1.53 billion bushels, down 4 percent from the same period a year earlier. All wheat stored on December 1, 2022, totaled 1.28 billion bushels, down 7 percent from a year ago. The September-November 2022 indicated disappearance is 498 million bushels, 26 percent above the same period a year earlier. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

Soybeans were up; corn, cotton, and wheat down for the week.

Should producers start managing price risk for the 2023 crop? Yes. On September 16, December 2023 corn futures were $6.20/bu and November 2023 soybean futures were $13.66/bu. Some producers will be looking to hedge new crop production (and this would be a prudent risk management decision for many), however given volatility and the potential for increased margin requirements a more cost-effective strategy may be bridging the price risk gap until crop insurance prices are determined in March. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

Corn, cotton, and wheat were up; soybeans were down for the week.

December corn increased from $5.61 ¾, on July 22, to $6.85 this Friday, a 123 ½ cent increase in seven months. The upward trend has been supported by production concerns in the U.S. The August USDA WASDE report estimated national yield at 175.4 bu/acre, however many analysts are expecting a revision in yield next Monday to around 173 bu/acre. A 2.4 bu/acre reduction in national average yield equates to a 204.5-million-bushel reduction in U.S. production. This crop year has seen tremendous weather variability making yield estimates highly variable across large sections of the U.S. Corn Belt. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

Corn, soybeans, and wheat were down; cotton was mixed for the week.

Is the harvest low in for corn and soybeans?

December corn futures established a six-month low on July 22nd at $5.61 ¾. Since then, prices have increased nearly 50 cents closing the week at $6.10. Similarly, November soybeans had a six-month low, of $12.88 ½ before subsequently increasing to $14.08 ¾ on August 5th. Recent moves in futures markets and the drier/hot forecast for August in many production regions would tend to support higher prices moving forward. However, this year has been filled with volatility and abrupt changes in direction, so a challenge to current harvest lows cannot be ruled out. To give examples of the volatility, one only needs to look at the last 20 trading days. In 11 of the last 20 trading days the November soybean contract has seen daily moves of greater than 25 cents, including moves of 62 and 62.5 cents down and 37.75 and 38 cents up. For December corn, 9 of the last 20 trading days have had daily changes of greater than 10 cents, including a 42.5 cent decrease and a 19.5 cent increase). Simply stated, markets still have a tremendous amount of uncertainty and daily price swings are reflecting that uncertainty. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

The UT Center of Farm Management will be hosting an upcoming program titled “Farm Management During Uncertain Times.” The program will include a series of “town-hall meetings” via Zoom as well as a library of recorded videos (available August 9^th) that producers can access any time. The goal of this series is to provide resources and information to help producers make informed decisions as they navigate the uncertainty of production during drought, rising interest rates, and other current events. Please register at the link below to receive the webinar information for the town-hall meetings. The series is free and accessible to any producer interested.

Register Here: https://tiny.utk.edu/FarmManagementSeries

If you have any questions, please contact Tori Marshall at (615) 374-1283 or tmarsh21@utk.edu.

Corn, cotton, and wheat were down; soybeans were up for the week.

Harvest corn futures are now over 40 cents lower than the May 17th high of $7.65 ½. Planting has progressed substantially the past two weeks and is now approaching the 5-year average nationally. Additionally, most of the corn belt has favorable soil moisture. There is still a lot of time in the growing season, and late planting could affect national average yield, but crop conditions have improved. Weather will continue to dictate market direction until the next major USDA report, which will be the June 30th Acreage report. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.