INCESSANT RAINS BRING FIELD ACTIVITIES TO NEAR HALT

Lots of ill-timed rainfall this last week of September has delayed crop harvest and even drowned a few soybean fields. Before the rainfall yields were expected to be above average; now, we’ll just have to see. Everything else is as expected for September in TN. Matthew Deist, Marion County

There were 1.3 days suitable for field work, compared to 5.4 last week. Topsoil moisture rated 1 percent short, 46 percent adequate,  and 53 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture rated 2 percent short, 59 percent adequate, and 39 percent surplus. Continue reading at TN_10_01_18.  The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-10-01-2018.

Corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat were down for the week.

On Friday, the USDA released the much anticipated quarterly Grain Stocks report. The September report provides estimates of corn and soybean stocks at the end of the most recent marketing year (2017/18) and an estimate of wheat stocks as of September 1. The USDA report is available online at USDA Grain Stocks Report.

As of September 1, corn stocks were estimated at 2.14 billion bushels, down 153 million (7%) from last year and 138 million greater than the 2.002 billion bushels estimated in the September WASDE; soybean stocks were estimated at 438 million bushels, up 136 million (45%) from last year and 43 million greater than the 395 million bushels estimated in the September WASDE; and wheat stocks were estimated at 2.379 billion bushels, up 113 million (5%) from last year. Overall, the report was decidedly bearish with the estimates at or exceeding the upper end of the pre-report range. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

FIELD CROP HARVEST CONTINUES AT RAPID PACE AHEAD OF RAIN

Tennessee producers made great harvest progress ahead of weekend rains, as shown in the increase in sub and topsoil moistures from last week. Hay harvest was in its final stages as winter wheat plantings  advanced. Cotton is being defoliated and some harvested. The rain is expected to improve the condition of winter wheat, doublecropped beans, and pastures. Some producers finished harvesting corn and changed headers to start harvesting soybeans. Producers were positive about yields for all crops. There were 5.4 days suitable for field work. Topsoil moisture rated 2 percent very short, 20 percent short, 60 percent adequate, and 18 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture rated 4 percent very short, 22 percent short, 63 percent adequate, and 11 percent surplus.  Continue reading at TN_09_24_18. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-09-24-2018.

Corn, soybeans, and wheat were up; cotton was down for the week.

Corn and soybean futures were up for the week for the first time in the past three weeks. December corn established a new contact low of $3.42 ½ on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday corn rallied 15 cents off the low, closing at $3.57 ½. November soybeans also established a new contract low of $8.12 ¼ on September 18. On Wednesday and Thursday, soybeans rebounded 43 cents off the low before a 3 cent decline on Friday closing at $8.47 ¼. Price action early next week will likely dictate if the rally is sustainable and the harvest contract low has been established. A retreat early next week could result in further price weakness.

In Tennessee, corn and soybean basis remains near record lows as harvest progresses. Record yields will keep cash prices down across Tennessee during this harvest season. Storing a portion of this crop should be considered to avoid the current large negative basis. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

CORN HARVEST CONTINUES AT RAPID PACE

Spotty showers did little to slow field work. Corn harvest continued to proceed rapidly with many producers reporting better than average yields. Cotton harvest began on a limited scale, while soybean harvest picked up somewhat. Hay producers were busy with their final cutting for the season. Pasture conditions improved slightly as temperatures dropped a few degrees. There were 5.9 days suitable for field work. Topsoil moisture rated 3 percent very short, 23 percent short, 72 percent adequate, and 2 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture rated 8 percent very short, 25 percent short, 66 percent adequate, and 1 percent surplus. Continue reading at TN_09_17_18.  The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-09-17-2018.

Corn and soybeans were down; cotton and wheat were mixed for the week.

The major news this week was USDA’s updated yield estimates. Nationally, corn, soybean, and upland cotton yields were estimated at 181.3 bu/acre, 52.8 bu/acre, and 881 lb/acre. Corn and soybean estimates were revised up 2.9 bu/acre and 1.2 bu acre from last month – if realized both would be all-time records. Upland cotton yield was decreased 14 lb/ acre from last month.

The larger than anticipated, corn and soybean yields contributed to December corn and November soybeans setting new contract lows of $3.48/bu and $8.21/bu. With the large crop headed towards market and no foreseeable end to trade disruptions a further leg down in futures prices cannot be ruled out at this time. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights. Comment on the September 12th USDA WASDE report and a Profitability Update looking to 2019 can be found at Monthly Crop Comments.

RELEASED: September 12, 2018

September 1 Tennessee Crop Production Forecast

Corn production in Tennessee is forecast at 127 million bushels,  unchanged from the August forecast and up 5 percent from the previous crop. Yield was estimated at a record 174.0 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month and up 3.0 bushels from the 2017 level. Acres for harvest as grain were estimated at 730,000 acres, up 20,000 acres from 2017. U.S. corn production is forecast at 14.8 billion bushels, up 2 percent from the August forecast and up 2 percent from 2017. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average 181.3 bushels per acre, up 2.9 bushels from last month and up 4.7 bushels from 2017. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 81.8 million acres, unchanged from the August forecast and down 1 percent from 2017. Continue reading at SepCrop18_TN.

MARKED PROGRESS MADE ON CORN, TOBACCO HARVEST

Dry weather last week paved the way for Tennessee growers to make marked progress on corn and tobacco harvest. Producer reported corn yields are better than earlier anticipated. Soybean harvest was just beginning last week and cotton was being defoliated. Plentiful amounts of hay was harvested and put up over the past week in most areas while in other areas, warmer temperatures have limited pasture growth and hay may need to be fed sooner this year. There were 5.5 days suitable for field work. Topsoil moisture rated 5 percent very short, 20 percent short, 69 percent adequate, and 6 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture rated 12 percent very short, 29 percent short, 56 percent adequate, and 3 percent surplus. Continue reading at TN_09_10_18. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-09-11-2018.