CONTINUED PLANTING, DESPITE VARIABLE WEATHER

Tennessee farmers made great planting progress this week, taking full advantage of the 4.5 days suitable for field work. Cooler temperatures and a few rain events halted activities early in the week. Producers are encouraged by the warming weather which came later in the week, as pasture and other conditions are improving. All crops are mostly in fair to good condition. Topsoil moisture was 1 percent short, 53 percent adequate, and 46 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture was 1 percent short, 55 percent adequate, and 44 percent  surplus. Continue reading at TN_04_23_18. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-04-23-2018.

Corn, soybeans, and wheat were down; cotton was up for the week. December corn futures closed down 8 cents this week. December corn futures have decreased 14 cents since March 9. Markets will closely monitor planting progress and weather forecasts as we move into next week. Planting progress has been behind the 5-year average, however forecasts have improved planting conditions in the next 5-7 days.

November soybean futures dropped 14 cents this week. This week volatility in soybean markets was muted compared to the previous two weeks as the trade rhetoric between the United States and China has cooled. For now, markets appear to be taking a wait and see approach to any trade disruptions. Potential tariffs are currently providing a great deal of uncertainty in soybean markets and the long term ramifications for U.S. soybean producers could be profound. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

SOME RELIEF FROM WET, COOL WEATHER
ALLOWS PLANTING ACCELERATION

Drier weather last week provided producers the opportunity to make substantial progress in planting field crops, and applying herbicides and pesticides. There were 4.3 days suitable for field work, double the number of days last week. Though the weather was drier, cooler weather in some areas caused some damage to the peach crop. The strawberry crop was in fair to good condition. Topsoil moisture was 2 percent short, 57 percent adequate, and 41 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture was 1 percent short, 55 percent adequate, and 44 percent surplus. Continue reading at TN_04_16_18. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-04-16-2018.

Corn was down; cotton, soybeans, and wheat were up for the week. In the past ten trading days, November soybean futures have traded between $9.97 ¾ and $10.60 per bushel – a 62 ¼ cent range! There is a great deal of uncertainty regarding the direction of soybean futures. A reasonable case can be made for a move above $11.00 or below $9.50. The bullish argument centers on reduced Argentinian supplies, lower U.S. planted acreage, strong world demand, and no implementation of the proposed Chinese tariffs on soybeans (or escalation of a China-U.S. trade war). The bearish argument points to the highest U.S.
ending stocks since the 2006/2007 marketing year, the proposed retaliatory Chinese tariffs on soybeans (or increased escalation of a China-U.S. trade war), increased U.S. plantings – due to higher prices, and a sixth consecutive record Brazilian soybean harvest.
Given the number of factors at play it is very likely that volatility in soybeans will continue.

Corn planting in Tennessee has commenced, however rain in the 5-7 day forecast could slow progress in the coming week. President Trump announced support for possibly moving to year round E15, which could be supportive for corn demand. December
corn futures continue to hold above $4.10 per bushel, markets will closely monitor planting progress and trade negotiations. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

PERSISTENT RAINS, FREEZING TEMPERATURES, LIMITED FIELDWORK

Continued rains and wet, soft ground kept producers out of the field again this week, allowing only 2.1 days suitable for field work. Freezing temperatures accompanied by a frost over the weekend have some worried about wheat, fruit trees, and gardens. Wet weather has hindered corn planting. Many producers are waiting for a window of opportunity to return to fields. Some are optimistic for future pasture conditions due to the recent rainfall, though cattle still need fed due to wet conditions. Pasture and Strawberries appear to be in mostly good condition. Generally, crop progress seems to be comparable to last year. Topsoil moisture was 1 percent short, 53 percent adequate, and 46 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture was 55 percent adequate, and 45 percent surplus. Continue reading at TN_04_09_18. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-04-09-2018.

Corn, cotton, and wheat were up; and soybeans were down for the week.

This past week was a volatile week in commodity futures markets. The biggest story in agricultural markets this week was the announcement, by China, of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, wheat, sorghum, beef, and cotton. It is important to point out that these tariffs have not been implemented yet simply announced
as potential retaliatory measures to be imposed in the future. If the tariffs were  it would not be good for U.S. agriculture, particularly for commodities that rely on exports to China, such as soybeans and cotton. Hopefully the two nations can work out their trade differences prior to the enactment of the tariffs.

When the tariffs were announced on Wednesday futures prices immediately dropped: soybeans 40-50 cents; corn 10-15 cents; wheat 10-15 cents; and cotton 1.5-2.5 cents. By the close of Thursday all four commodities had regained all or most of these loses. While I’m not yet convinced that the tariffs on soybeans will come in to effect (Chinese soybean consumers have as much to lose as US soybean producers), in the short-term we could potentially see accelerated export sales and shipments before the proposed tariffs are scheduled to be implemented as exporters attempt to secure and deliver product before tariff implementation. This could support prices in the short term. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

Please see the information below on the Farmers and Suicide Prevention web page created by the Tennessee Suicide Prevention Network in partnership with Tennessee Department of Agriculture.  There are some good publications on this website.  The web page can be found here – http://tspn.org/farmers-and-suicide-prevention .

Farmers and Suicide Prevention

No population is immune to suicide, least of all farmers who face financial worries,  unpredictable weather, plant pests, livestock diseases, and isolation. With this information, TSPN is proud to debut a NEW PAGE on our website highlighting this at risk group partnering with the Tennessee Department of Agriculture. With this partnership, TSPN is forming a Task Force to see how we can address this issue in Tennessee. As all those who have been impacted by loss or lived experience with suicide are important to us, we would like to hear your stories and get your involvement in this new Task Force. It is a priority to have those who work in this field represented on the Task Force and to hear from you how we can best impact this at risk group.  If you would like to submit a story or be a part of the Task Force please email tspn@tspn.org.

A Summary of the USDA’s Prospective Planting and Grain Stocks Report

with

Profitability Update

March 29, 2018

On March 29, 2018, the USDA released the Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports. The Prospective Plantings report provides projections for planted acreage for specified commodities. The projections provide an initial estimate of planted acreage (and potential production) for primary row crops. Below is a summary of the 2018 report projections and 2012-2017 March projections and final planted acreage estimates for corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat, nationally and for Tennessee. Continue reading at ProspectivePlantingsGrainStocks032918.