In this post, I’ll provide data supporting what I have penciled to be an ~860 lb per acre average lint yield for Tennessee. I’ll also provide a little background on how the USDA NASS numbers are generated and what we can do to make sure these estimates are improved when data is being collected by USDA NASS.
Acreage
My surprise with the USDA NASS numbers started early this year. The USDA NASS June 30th acreage report estimated Tennessee acres to be 260,000. Following the report, I had numerous phone calls inquiring as to where Tennessee was hiding approximately 100,000 acres of cotton, since none of the gins were aware of their location. We now know, based on certified FSA acreage data, that Tennessee certified 202,244 cotton acres and failed 13,075 acres- leaving us with 189,168 to harvest (you may be interested to know that we prevent-planted 48,338 acres). The USDA NASS miss on the acreage estimate is relatively easy to explain. Grower survey response rates have declined in recent years. I have not reviewed the 2025 survey response rate data to prove this, but I suspect that most likely a handful of growers who were able to plant early responded to the survey. Very few (or likely, none) of the growers who were struggling to finish planting responded. Take home here is pretty simple and, in turn, it is hard to point the finger at NASS on this miss. Response rates to USDA NASS surveys matter. If we do not respond to surveys when data is requested, the estimates will not represent what occurs in Tennessee.
Yield
Unfortunately, correcting the misses on yield estimates does not appear to be in our hands. The first yield estimate surprise came with the USDA NASS August 12th report, which estimated TN yield to be 1,061 lb per acre. By early August, we understood that yields were likely to fall well below our 5 year average but we had hopes for a 900 lb crop. The frustration escalated slightly when USDA NASS released the November 14th report, which estimated our yields at 1,213 lb per acre. By that time, almost all had finished harvest and no one expected average yields to exceed 900 lb. But when the USDA NASS December 9th report estimated our yields at 1,440 lb per acre- an all-time record yield for the state which would have surpassed our 2023 average of 1,250 by an additional 190 lb- conversations around the massive error in the estimate boiled over from frustration to anger.
I reached out to USDA NASS in early July to discuss the acreage miss and had several very constructive conversations during that effort. I also reached out to USDA NASS immediately after the December 9th report and I must admit that it was quite challenging to convince some that Tennessee would not realize 1,440 lb per acre average- that less than a handful of fields within the state achieved that level of yield- and our average would instead fall near 850 lb per acre, based on USDA AMS and FSA data (more on that below). I stuck with the effort, however, and was able to have several outstanding conversations with those at the highest levels of USDA NASS. They are aware of the errors in Tennessee and in other states and I expect to see a major correction in the January 12th or subsequent reports.
Average yield for the state of Tennessee, as of Jan 6th, is 864 lb per acre. Again, Tennessee FSA certified planted acreage (ignoring prevent plant and failed) was 189,168. Thanks to the USDA AMS Classing office, we know exactly how many bales from Tennessee are classed. They release these counts throughout the classing season and can be pulled quickly by state. USDA AMS office has classed 340,307 bales from Tennessee and has classed no new bales since early December, at which point all our gins had finished running for the season.
So why does it matter?
I’ve had landowners reach out questioning why their growers did so poorly, relative to the state average. I don’t typically interact much with landowners who are not actively involved in operations; I’m certain many growers are having to work through these conversations without the USDA AMS data. It is my hope this post could be referenced as evidence that USDA NASS overestimated TN yields in the Dec 9th report by 576 lb.
Furthermore, policy decisions are often influenced by this data. Unfortunately, when you access the 2025 Tennessee State Agricultural Overview you will find the 1,440 lb per acre number. This can be found in several reports and popular press articles, many of which have highlighted the record Tennessee cotton crop (Pro Farmer, Brownfield). It is my hope that many of these documents will be revised after the January 12th or subsequent reports, but unfortunately, the correction for Tennessee will not likely generate similar news releases in national popular press. It is impossible to understand the current condition of the Tennessee cotton industry if current USDA NASS numbers are considered accurate.
Finally, I’d like to thank the individuals with USDA NASS who took time to visit with me. It has been a tumultuous time for USDA. The agency is currently restructuring, many were fired or took early retirements in 2025, and the government was shut down for 43 days, during which much of this data was collected. I’m hopeful stability within the agency will improve the accuracy of the estimates in the future.
