Low temperatures Friday (3/25) and Saturday (3/26) morning are predicted to be at or near freezing. Currently most wheat is in the jointing stage. In southern counties the wheat is a little ahead of wheat in our northern counties but none is in the boot stage yet. Wheat susceptibility to freezing temperatures increases as stages of wheat growth advance. During the jointing stage temperatures need to drop below 25F for several hours to have moderate yield reductions. As of Thursday night (3/24) temperatures are not forecast to fall to those levels. If we see damage it will likely be some minor leaf burning that will show up 12-36 hours after freezing temperatures.

In 2007 the wheat crop was in the boot to early head emergence stage and was severly damaged by freezing temperatures. That night in some areas low temperatures dropped to 26F for 3-4 hours. Northern counties that had wheat in the jointing stage did not see the crop losses the many of the southern counties experience. When wheat is in the boot stage temperatures below 28F can cause damage. Once head emergence occurs, temperatures of 32F or lower can cause major damage.

I am not concerned about this years crop these next few nights given the current stage of development. Most fields have not yet had flag leaf emergence so even some major leaf burn will not affect yield potential.