Category Archives: Marketing

Comments on the July 12 USDA Supply & Demand Report

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Corn

This is somewhat an historic day in the annuls of USDA reports and the futures market as today marked the first day that the markets were trading as the USDA Supply & Demand reports were released. Trading opened up at the CME Group at 7:20 a.m. in anticipation of the 7:30 a.m. report release. There were not a lot of surprises in today’s report, so this probably was a good day for it to start. Continue reading

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Weekly Crop Marketing Comments

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Corn, cotton, soybean, and wheat prices are all up for the week. The June U.S. Dollar Index before the close was at 82.58, down 0.40 for the week but up 0.46 for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded before the close at 12,526, up 407 points since last Friday. Crude Oil before the close traded at 84.39 a barrel, up 1.15 a barrel for the week. Contributing to the markets rally this week has been weather concerns in the Midwest, mixed financial news from Europe, interest rate drop in China , and most likely positioning ahead of the June 12 USDA Supply & Demand report. The CME Group announced that starting June 25 they will extend the close of open outcry or pit trading to 2 p.m. to coincide with electronic trading. Continue reading

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Weekly Crop Marketing Comments

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Corn, cotton, soybean, and wheat prices are all down for the week. The June U.S. Dollar Index before the close was at 82.98, up 0.46 for the week and around a two year high. Strength in the Dollar or more appropriately the weakness of the Euro is tied directly to Europe’s financial instability. Weaker commodity prices have been a direct result. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded before the close at 12,129, down 322 points since last Friday. Crude Oil before the close traded at 83.36 a barrel, down 8.17 a barrel for the week. Continue reading

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Weekly Crop Marketing Comments

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Prices are through Thursday, May 24, 2012. Corn, cotton, soybean, and wheat prices are all down for the week through Thursday. The June U.S. Dollar Index closed at 82.49, up 0.84 for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed Thursday at 12,530, up 161 points since last Friday. Crude Oil closed at 90.81 a barrel, down 0.99 a barrel for the week. The market’s overall bearish tone this week has been focusing on the dollar and the weather along with talk of Chinese cancellations of sales of corn and soybeans. Continue reading

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Weekly Crop Marketing Comments

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Corn and wheat prices are up; cotton and soybean prices down for the week. The June U.S. Dollar Index is trading midday at 81.45, up 1.05 for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average before the close was down 405 points for the week at 12,416. Crude Oil traded before the close at 92.07 a barrel, down 3.58 a barrel for the week. The European Union financial crisis and its effect of strengthening the Dollar have been weighed this week against weather concerns. The dollar strengthened this week as troubles in both the political and financial arenas continued in Greece with concern that other countries will also be affected. This has been an ongoing saga throughout the year. Continue reading

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Weekly Crop Marketing Comments

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Corn, cotton, soybeans and wheat prices are all down for the week. The June U.S. Dollar Index is trading midday at 80.39, up 0.80 for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average before the close was down 180 points for the week at 12,858. Crude Oil traded before the close at 95.84 a barrel, down 2.65 a barrel for the week. Several non-agricultural related factors have come together here at the end of the week to put additional pressure on prices. These include the news that bank J.P. Morgan Chase has taken $2 billion in trading losses in a trading group that manages risks the banks takes with its own money and disappointing industrial production data from China and India. Continue reading

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Profitability Outlook

This table should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. This table looks at crop prices as of May 10, 2012 for 2012 and can give a glimpse of what crop profitability is in Tennessee as of this date. One of the expense items that have to be watched is fertilizer. Fertilizer cost, particularly nitrogen prices have gone up recently for producers who did not have it already priced. I have updated the table below to reflect this higher cost.   For reference, in variable expenses below, fertilizer expense per acre is estimated as follows: cotton – $ 155, Soybeans – $53, Corn – $186 (includes 150 units of N), Milo – $145, and wheat/soybeans – $138. Continue reading

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Comments on the May 10 USDA Supply & Demand Report

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Corn

 

In today’s report, USDA updated the old crop stocks and put forth their first official estimate of the new crop year. This report is being perceived as bearish as old crop stocks were raised rather than cut and new crop stocks are projected to be more than double old crop stocks .For new crop stocks, this could be the largest estimate of the year as the fallout from corn prices trending lower, soybean prices stable to trending higher, and higher nitrogen prices could cause a few corn acres to shift to soybeans. A record yield is projected and to be achieved will depend on ideal conditions. Lower corn prices may also stimulate additional demand. Continue reading

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