Category Archives: Marketing

Weekly Crop Comments for September 18, 2015

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Corn and cotton were down; soybeans and wheat were mixed for the week. Harvest corn futures prices retreated almost 20 cents from last week’s high of $3.95 on Tuesday.  This retreat eliminated last week’s entire 13-18 cent bump which resulted from the September WASDE and Crop Production reports. As harvest progresses north, we will likely see prices continue to slide lower and challenge the December contract low of $3.57 ½ on August 12th. Harvest weather conditions will be closely watched, as will variation in yield as harvest picks up in the Corn Belt.  Continue reading at Weekly Crop Comments.


Monthly Crop Outlook & Profitability Outlook Update

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September 11, 2015 – USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates

Corn

Projected 2015/16 U.S. feed grain supplies are reduced this month with lower forecast corn production more than offsetting a small increase for sorghum. Corn production is forecast 101 million bushels lower with the national average yield expected at 167.5 bushels per acre, down 1.3 bushels from the August forecast. Continue reading at Monthly Crop Outlook & Profitability Outlook Update for comments on the September 12th USDA report and early look at the 2016 Profitability Outllok.


Tennessee Market Highlights

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Corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat were down for the week. Prices continued to slide lower this week as harvest progressed across the South. Compared to last year at this time, corn and cotton futures are about the same while soybean and wheat futures are substantially lower. In 2014, the December corn contract low was $3.18 ¼ on October 1; the November soybeans contract low was $9.04 on October 1; the December cotton contract low was 57.84 on November 20; and the December wheat contract low was $4.66 ¼ on September 25. For 2015, the current contract lows are: corn ($3.57 ½); soybeans ($8.55); wheat ($4.63); and cotton 61.20. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.


Tennessee Market Highlights

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Corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat were down for the week. Prices continued to slide lower this week as harvest progressed across the South. Compared to last year at this time, corn and cotton futures are about the same while soybean and wheat futures are substantially lower. In 2014, the December corn contract low was $3.18 ¼ on October 1; the November soybeans contract low was $9.04 on October 1; the December cotton contract low was 57.84 on November 20; and the December wheat contract low was $4.66 ¼ on September 25. For 2015, the current contract lows are: corn ($3.57 ½); soybeans ($8.55); wheat ($4.63); and cotton 61.20. Given the estimated size of this year’s crop, current global economic conditions, the strength of the USD relative to our competitors, and the abundance of grain, oilseed, and cotton stocks worldwide, it is very unlikely that we have seen the contract lows for 2015. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.


Tennessee Market Highlights

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Corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat were down for the week. This week we saw a tremendous amount of volatility in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and crude oil. The DJIA reached a 565-day low of 15,666 on Tuesday August 25th and October WTI Crude Oil futures established a new low of 37.75 on Monday August 24th. The DJIA bounced back and erased all of the week’s losses with rallies on Wednesday and Thursday closing close to where the week began. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.


Tennessee Market Highlights

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Soybeans and wheat were down; cotton and corn were up for the week. December corn has bounced back from the August 12th low of $3.57 ½. Corn yields continue to be the subject of great debate as several crop tours have substantially different state yield estimates than the August 12th USDA Crop Production report. It is generally accepted that the Western Corn Belt will have record-to-near record yields while the Eastern Corn Belt will have yields that are below trend. Whether the good yields in the west offset the poorer yields in the east will determine if the USDA’s estimated national average yield of 168.8 bu/acre is high or low. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.


Tennessee Market Highlights

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Corn, soybeans, and wheat were down; cotton was up for the week. In grain and oilseed markets there were two dominant pieces of news this week: 1) the devaluation of the Chinese Yuan and 2) the August 12th WASDE and Crop Production reports. On August 10th the Chinese Yuan was trading at 6.21 to 1 USD. As of writing on August 14th, the Yuan was trading at 6.43 to 1 USD, 3.5% less than the beginning of the week. Simplistically stated the devaluation of the Chinese Yuan makes U.S. exports more ex-pensive for Chinese consumers to purchase and makes Chinese goods imported into the U.S. less expensive, all else being equal. While the full ramifications of this devaluation are yet to be determined for U.S. agricultural exports, it is likely that given the USD’s relative strength and the large global supplies of many grains, oilseeds, and fiber crops that exports and domestic prices will be adversely affected. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.


Comments on the USDA WASDE report & Profitability Outlook update

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Comments by Dr. Aaron Smith

August 12, 2015 – USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates

Corn Projected 2015/16 U.S. feed grain supplies are increased this month with higher forecast corn, sorghum, barley, and oats production. Corn production is forecast at 13.7 billion bushels, up 156 million from the July projection, with the season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast at 168.8 bushels per acre, 2.0 bushels higher than last month’s trend-based projection. Corn supplies for 2015/16 are projected at a record 15.5 billion bushels, up 154 million from last month with a small reduction in beginning stocks. Continue reading at USDA WASDE Comments & Profitability Outlook update.