Corn: Over the past week, September corn futures increased by $0.06 while the average local harvest basis increased by $0.02 in West TN. The increase in corn prices can be attributed to the recent weakness in the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar has shown signs of weakness due to sluggish economic news. In fact, the Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen, stated this week that the Fed will not raise interest rates as high as previously thought. Prior to this week, the Fed was expected to raise interest rates up to four times throughout 2016. However, due to lackluster economic data within the U.S., it seems that the Fed will only raise rates twice this year. Continue reading →

Corn: Corn traded higher today due to better export figures in this week’s export report. Exports were helped by support from the wheat market and due to a lower dollar. Analysts are reporting that corn acres may be higher than what the USDA reported at the Outlook Forum last month. USDA has estimated that the 2016 crop will be about 90.0 million acres. The soil temperature in the Midwest is warmer than it has been the past few years due to a milder winter. Continue reading →

This link to Supply & Demand Estimates and Profitability Outlook  contains a summary of the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Domestic balance sheets for corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat are displayed along with price reaction in futures markets for each commodity on the day of the report release. Additionally, supply and demand estimates for key importing and exporting countries are provided for the current month along with change in estimates from the previous report. The Profitability Outlook section contains estimated returns per acre for each commodity based on 2015 Tennessee state average/trend yields and current price offerings (note: cotton prices include a seed and hauling rebate). Variable expenses are based on the University of Tennessee Extension 2016 Row Crop Budgets. Prices are updated monthly; expenses are updated as warranted during the year and may be different than the expenses contained in the 2016 Row Crop Budgets. This section provides an estimation of the current relative profitability amongst major row crops in Tennessee.

The report is prepared monthly by Dr. Aaron Smith and Chuck Danehower.

Corn imports are projected 10 million bushels higher based on recent imports of corn into southeastern U.S. feed markets. Corn exports are projected 50 million bushels lower as larger supplies of South American corn further increase competition for U.S. exports. Partly offsetting is a 25-million-bushel increase in projected U.S. corn use for ethanol based on the strong pace of ethanol production during January, as indicated by weekly Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, and higher forecast gasoline consumption. Corn ending stocks for 2015/16 are raised 35 million bushels. Continue reading at UT Monthly Crop and Profitability Outlook.