All posts by Danny Morris, Ext Area Specialist - Farm Management

UT Commodity Market Update 3/3/2017

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Corn: Over the past month, corn futures have been trading in a relatively sideways pattern. However, the past few days have allowed cash bids for new crop corn to be near $4.00 levels. Based on the UT Extension Crop Budgets, a producer could potentially lock in a profit at this price level, assuming an average yield of 150 bushels per acre. Private estimates are currently projecting corn acres to be lower in 2017 compared to last year’s levels. Continue reading


Managing a New Kind of Risk

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In agriculture, we are constantly faced with risk. Farmers are faced with the risk of adverse weather conditions, volatile commodity markets, and many other production risks. As an Extension Farm Management Specialist, I try to communicate to producers the options they have to reduce their overall risk exposure.

I like to narrow down the areas of risk that farmers must manage to two main areas: financial risk and production risk.

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UT Commodity Market Update 1/20/2017

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West Tennessee Grain Bids 1-20-2017

Corn: September corn futures increased by $0.10 over the past week. Corn exports have been strong over the past weeks. That along with the news that the RFS looks to remain in place have allowed corn futures to climb higher for the fourth straight week. Brazil and Argentina will begin their corn harvest next month, which could shift demand from U.S. corn to the South America. The size of their crop could impact U.S. corn prices and take the top out of this rally.

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UT Commodity Market Update 1/13/2017

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West Tennessee Grain Bids 1-13-2017

 

Corn: September corn futures only increased by a penny over the past week. The latest USDA report did not contain any major changes from last month’s report. As a result, corn prices have traded virtually sideways yesterday and today. Brazil and Argentina will begin their corn harvest next month. The size of this crop could impact U.S. corn prices as we edge closer to planting.

Soybeans: November futures increased by $0.36 over the past week. The latest USDA report reduced the size of the U.S. soybean crop. This was a major surprise to the soybean market. Most analysts were expecting an increase in this week’s report. Brazil is currently harvesting their soybean crop and Argentina will start next month. The size of this crop will influence U.S. soybean prices until we know the U.S. planting intentions.

 Wheat: The USDA reduced winter wheat acreages in this week’s report. The 2017 wheat crop is thought to be the smallest wheat crop in over 100 years. As a result, July wheat futures increased by $0.07 over the past week.

 Cotton: December cotton futures closed at 0.709. Cotton equities continue to range between $0.10 and $0.13 for 2016 equities and $0.15 for 2017 equities.

 

Take Home Message: With the recent rally in soybeans, producers may look at the potential of booking soybeans above the $10.00 level for the 2017 crop year. Producers should look at their costs of production to determine profitability levels and work with suppliers for input prices for 2017. UT Extension crop budgets for 2017 will be ready within the next few weeks.

 


UT Commodity Market Update 1/6/2017

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West Tennessee Grain Elevator Bids can be viewed here: West Tennessee Grain Bids 1-6-2017

Corn: September corn futures have increased by $0.10 over the past two weeks. The increase can be attributed to strong export sales and a better sentiment across the commodity complex. Over the past month, the increase in oil prices and stock prices has created a positive mood that continues to spill over into commodity markets. Despite the $0.10 increase in prices, the corn market is limited by large supplies due to the extremely large 2016 corn crop. This will limit any upside in corn prices. Continue reading


UT Commodity Market Update 12/9/2016

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For West Tennessee Grain elevator bids as of today’s market close: grain-newsletter-12-9-2016

Corn: The corn market has recently experienced a bit of an uptick in prices. The March contract has gained approximately $0.12 this week. However, September futures for next year have traded virtually sideways this week. Why have corn prices begun to show signs of improvement? Well, the answer is a mixture of things. First off, the financial sector continues to show signs of strengthening after the presidential election. The DOW Jones closed at record high of 19,756.85 yesterday. The financial markets and the commodity markets are interrelated. Therefore, the gains felt on Wall Street find their way over to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Now, that is not the only reason that corn prices have increased this week. Export sales continue to exceed USDA expectations and are ahead of last year’s numbers. The combination of a positive mood on Wall Street and better than expected sales make for a recipe for higher corn futures. Continue reading


UT Commodity Market Update 11/18/2016

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Corn: December corn futures were able to increase by $0.05 over the course of the week. Corn futures have been dampened over the past few weeks due to the extremely large size of the 2016 corn crop. With a national yield of 175.3 bushels per acre, the supply of corn is quite abundant. However, the demand for corn has begun to show some signs of improvement over the past week. Ethanol production is reportedly higher this week as ethanol futures rose to a two-week high. Corn exports have also been better than expected given the recent strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Continue reading


UT Commodity Market Update 11/11/2016

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Corn: December corn futures closed $0.08 lower for the week. This past week has been a bit tumultuous for the commodity markets. Earlier this week the USDA released the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report. This report indicated that corn production would be raised for the 2016 crop. The USDA projected that the U.S. corn crop would equal 15.23 billion bushels and a national yield of 175.3 bushels per acre. Continue reading