Corn, soybeans, and wheat were up; cotton was down for the week. The size of the U.S. corn and soybean crop, large domestic stocks carried over from 2017, continued trade  disruptions, and faster crop maturity than normal will diminish (eliminate) early harvest price premiums and depress harvest basis below typical levels.

Will producers in Tennessee have lower gross revenue this year, compared to 2017?

From August 1 to October 31, 2017, the average cash prices for corn and soybeans across the state were $3.35/bu and $9.43/bu. So far, in August 2018, cash prices have averaged $3.63/bu and $8.59/bu. Cash wheat prices from June 1 to July 31, were $4.83 (2017) and $5.08 (2018). Cash cotton prices, from October 1 to November 30, 2017 averaged 69.39 cents/lb, currently, cotton pric-es are 81.51 cents/lb. So far, year-over-year average corn, cotton, and wheat prices are up, soybean prices are down. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

WEATHER CONDITIONS MOSTLY VARIABLE LAST WEEK

Spotty yet substantial showers were prominent across the State last week. These rains improved pasture conditions and at the same time kept some producers from making additional hay cuttings. In East Tennessee, tomatoes and other vegetables were stressed and made more susceptible to disease because of wet weather. There were 5.1 days suitable for field work. Both topsoil and subsoil moisture improved from last week. Topsoil moisture rated 6 percent very short, 23 percent short, 64 percent adequate, and 7 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture rated 6 percent very short, 26 percent short, 63 percent adequate, and 5 percent surplus. Continue reading at TN_08_13_18. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-08-13-2018.

Corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat were down for the week.

Prior to Friday, wheat futures were up for the week, corn and soybeans were trading flat, and cotton was down around 1 cent. On Friday, the USDA released the Crop Production and WASDE reports and the news was overwhelmingly bearish. As a result,  soybeans were down 43 cents, corn was down 11 cents, wheat was down 18 cents, and  cotton was down 2.0 cents.

Nationally, corn yield was estimated at 178.4 bu/acre, up 1.8 bu/acre from 2017 and an all-time record; soybean yield was projected at 51.6 bu/acre, up 2.5 bu/acre from last year and near the all-time record of 52 bu/acre in 2016; winter wheat yield was estimated at 47.9 bu/acre, down 2.3 bu/acre from last year and down 0.1 bu/acre from last month; and upland cotton yield was projected at 895 lbs/acre, the same as last year (all cotton yield was estimated at 911 lbs/acre, up 6 lbs/acre from 2017). Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

“Tennessee’s agricultural producers remain optimistic about the 2018 crop year, particularly corn, which is expected to produce a record yield,” said Debra Kenerson, State Statistician. “We express our sincere gratitude to agricultural producers for making this picture of Tennessee agriculture possible.”

Corn production in Tennessee was forecast at 127 million bushels, up 5 percent from the previous crop. Yield was estimated at 174 bushels per acre, up 3 bushels from the 2017 level. Acres for harvest as grain were estimated at 730,000 acres, up 20,000 acres from 2017. The U.S. corn production was forecast at 14.6 billion bushels, down slightly from 2017. Based on conditions as of August 1, yields are expected to average 178.4 bushels per acre, up 1.8 bushels from 2017. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 81.8 million acres, unchanged from the June forecast but down 1 percent from 2017. Continue reading at PRAUG18_TN.

News of government payments to offset a loss of exports from tariffs, while welcome, is viewed as a short-term solution and not a replacement to income from the market.

There is uncertainty among Tennessee Producers these days as while an excellent crop appears to be developing (rain is needed in some areas), corn and soybean prices have tumbled. Cotton is the bright spot as prices have hung on near their highs while the Tennessee crop is very promising.

Uncertainty somewhat can be overcome by sound farm financial planning. While yields, prices, and government assistance will vary from year to year, producers who have in place a farm financial plan are better equipped to weather the unknowns and bumps in the road that may appear from time to time. Continue reading at Southeast Farm Press.

GENERAL, SOAKING RAINFALL NEEDED

Widespread showers are needed to reverse the slow depletion of subsoil and topsoil moisture. We were very fortunate to have rain earlier in the season that gave us mostly adequate to surplus moisture which is sustaining us now in most areas. Crops are beginning to show stress in some areas while there are isolated areas that have plentiful moisture from unseasonable rainfall. Producers continue to spray for pests and cut hay. There were 5.9 days suitable for field work. Topsoil moisture rated 6 percent very short, 34 percent short, 55 percent adequate, and 5 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture rated 7 percent very short, 32 percent short, 57 percent adequate, and 4 percent surplus. Continue reading at TN_08_06_18. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-08-06-2018.

Corn, soybeans, and wheat were up; cotton was mixed for the week.

In July, commodity markets were driven by weather and trade disputes. For most of the major corn and soybean producing regions in the United States, growing conditions have been very good, as a result many are expecting yields to be above trend line (early national average yield projections are 171-179 bu/acre for corn and 48-53 bu/acre for soybeans). Cotton production has suffered in parts of Texas and the Southwest, however the Mid-South and Southeast cotton crop looks very good. July 6th marked the day that China officially put retaliatory tariffs on several U.S. agricultural goods, including cotton, corn, soybeans, and wheat. The futures market had the tariffs priced into the market as the trade dispute had been building since early January and intensified at the end of May. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.