Released: November 8, 2018

Record Tennessee Corn Yield Projected

Corn production in Tennessee is forecast at 119 million bushels, down 1 percent from the October forecast and down 2 percent from the previous crop. Yield was estimated at a record 173.0 bushels per acre, down 1.0 bushels from last month and up 2.0 bushels from the 2017 level. Acres for harvest as grain were estimated at 685,000 acres, down 25,000 acres from 2017. The U.S. corn production is forecast at 14.6 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the October forecast and up slightly from 2017. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average 178.9 bushels per acre, down 1.8 bushels from last month and up 2.3 bushels from 2017. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 81.8 million acres, unchanged from the October forecast and down 1 percent from 2017. Continue reading at NovCrop18_TN.

RAINS PUT FIELD WORK ON HOLD

Mid-week rains once again put a halt to field activities, but not before some harvest of field crops occurred. Despite mostly good yields, soybean and cotton producers reported quality issues due to wet conditions. Winter wheat planting continued as the weather allowed. As cooler temperatures approach, livestock producers were reporting adequate hay supplies. There were 3.5 days suitable for fieldwork. Topsoil moisture rated 1 percent short, 58 percent adequate, and 41 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture rated 2 percent short, 68 percent adequate, and 30 percent surplus. Continue reading at TN_11_05_18.  The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-11-05-2018.

Corn, cotton, and soybeans were up; and wheat was mixed for the week.

On Thursday, positive comments from President Trump regarding trade negotiations with China sparked a 30 cent rally in soybean futures, ending a three week slide in soybean futures that saw January futures prices decline from $9.00 to below $8.50. While the market reacted positively, there is still a long way to go before a long term resolution with the Chinese is likely. Moving forward volatility is likely to remain in soybean markets as positive/negative trade news is released. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

FIELD ACTIVITIES RESUME

Drier conditions allowed farmers to resume harvest activities until late week rains forced them out of their fields again. Yield reports were mixed with some producers fearing that recent rains had adversely affected yields. Pasture conditions declined a bit with a few areas reporting frost, but, for the most part, conditions remained good. There were 3.9 days suitable for fieldwork. Topsoil moisture rated 2 percent short, 74 percent adequate, and 24 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture rated 2 percent short, 82 percent adequate, and 16 percent surplus. Continue reading at  TN_10_29_18. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-10-29-2018.

Corn and cotton were up, soybeans and wheat were down for the week.

Futures prices declined for the week as tepid weekly export sales numbers for corn and soybeans resulted in further concerns about dispersing this year’s large domestic crop. Soybean and wheat export commitments (outstanding sales and accumulated exports) are well behind the pace to meet USDA projections. Currently, wheat export commitments are 45% of the USDA’s marketing year goal. This compares unfavorably to last year at 68% and the five year average of 64% for the same time period. Similarly, soybean export commitments are at 38% of USDA’s marketing year total, compared to 50% last year and a five year average of 57%. Chinese tariffs have obviously played a substantial role in reduced soybean export commitments. However, these are troubling numbers during harvest when export sales are typically at their highest. Reduced exports will increase domestic carry-over and further decrease cash prices. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

University of Tennessee Extension is hosting 5 meetings to assist producers and landowners with finalizing their decisions regarding generic base acres and seed cotton as a result of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018. The meetings will provide information on: updating yields, options for reallocating generic base, 2018 ARC and PLC program selection for seed cotton base acres, and the short & long term implications of the decisions for landowners and cotton, grain, and oilseed producers. Also on the program will be how to handle seed damage through crop insurance and details on signing up for the Market Facilitation Program

For producers and landowners that have already made reallocation and program election decisions, the meetings will provide an opportunity to review (and change) decisions based on: 1) updated 2018 county yield data; and 2) recent policy developments in the 2019-2023 Farm Bill negotiations.

The sign up deadline at FSA service centers is December 7^th. Meetings will be held in Dyersburg, Somerville, Alamo, Brownsville, and Jackson (October 29-31; See Generic Base Meetings Flier 2018). We encourage attendees to register so we can get an accurate head count for meals.