CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS CAUSE WORRIES

The trace of rain received last week was not enough to relieve dry conditions that have dominated the State for months. Pasture conditions continued to decline and many producers are having to feed hay and haul water for their livestock. Wheat farmers who have already planted are worried about their crops, while those who have not planted are waiting for more favorable conditions. On a brighter note, the dry conditions have helped with soybean and cotton harvests. There were 6.9 days suitable for field work. Topsoil moisture was 42 percent very short, 36 percent short, 21 percent adequate, and 1 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture levels were 37 percent very short, 39 percent short, and 24 percent adequate. Continue reading Tennessee NASS report at tn_10_31_16.  The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at cropprog-10-31-2016.

Corn, cotton, and soybeans were up; wheat was down for the week. Compared to last year at this time December corn futures are 20-30 cents lower, November soybean futures are 80-125 cents higher, December cotton futures are 5-8 cents higher, and July wheat futures are 40-60 cents lower. Global production of corn, soybeans, and wheat are projected to be at alltime highs for the 2016/17 marketing year, however, so is global consumption of all three commodities. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights .

Many producers have struggled to completely pay the last two years’ financial obligation and had to extend them forward in their financial plan. They are not only working to satisfy this year’s cash flow but have to also account for previous year’s shortfall or at least some amortized version of those shortfalls.

Will yields and prices be enough to put producers back into the positive side of their cash flow? Discussions and review of producer’s operations prior to harvest indicated that it was going to be close. Continue reading at Southeast Farm Press.

DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE STATE

Though the State received light and scattered showers last week, it was not enough to relieve dry conditions that have stressed most of the State for months. Pastures are predominately parched and producers are still feeding hay and hauling water, causing deep concerns about shortages heading into the winter months. The dry conditions have helped farmers get their row crops out of the field but are all but halting winter wheat seedings.  Continue reading Tennessee NASS report at tn_10_24_16. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at cropprog-10-24-2016.

Corn, cotton, and wheat were down; soybeans were up for the week. December corn traded mostly sideways for the week in a 10 cent range ($3.50- $3.60). Since the contract low of $3.14 3/4 on August 31, corn prices are up almost 40 cents. Strong global demand and reduced yield estimates (the national average will still be a record) have helped to provide support for corn prices. As we move through the remainder of harvest, futures prices will likely trade between $3.40 and $3.70. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST

The Tennessee Department of Agriculture is set to publish its Hay Directory this week, which will assist producers in finding the hay they need for their livestock going into winter. Farmers are feeding hay much earlier this year because of deteriorating pasture conditions, and some are hauling water because of dry ponds. The extremely dry conditions across the state helped producers to finish harvesting their crops but slowed wheat planting and emergence. There was some welcome rain in parts of West Tennessee. There were 6.1 days suitable for field work.Continue reading Tennessee NASS report at tn_10_17_16.  The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at cropprog-10-17-2016.

Corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat were up for the week. On Wednesday the USDA released monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports. Detailed summaries of the reports can be accessed at: http://economics.ag.utk.edu/ outlook.html. Nationally, corn yields were decreased 1 bu/acre from 174.4 to 173.4 bu/acre. If realized this would be an all-time record and 5 bu/ acre above last year. In Tennessee, corn yields were dropped 2 bu/acre, to 148 bu/acre, down 12 bushels acre/from last year. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

This link to October 12, 2016 – USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates  contains a summary of the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Domestic balance sheets for corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat are displayed along with price reaction in futures markets for each commodity on the day of the report release. Additionally, supply and demand estimates for key importing and exporting countries are provided for the current month along with change in estimates from the previous report. The Profitability Outlook section contains estimated returns per acre for each commodity for 2017 based Tennessee state average yield projections and estimated price offerings for 2017(note: cotton prices include a seed and hauling rebate). Variable expenses are based on the University of Tennessee Extension 2016 Row Crop Budgets. Prices are updated monthly; expenses are updated as warranted during the year and may be different than the expenses contained in the 2016 Row Crop Budgets. This section provides an estimation of the current relative profitability amongst major row crops in Tennessee.

The report is prepared monthly by Dr. Aaron Smith and Chuck Danehower.