Corn, cotton, and wheat were up; soybeans were down for the week. This week we entered the critical price discovery period for crop insurance for corn, soybeans, and cotton in Tennessee. The projected (spring) price will be determined from February 1 to 28 using the harvest futures contract for each commodity. As of Friday, February 3, the 2017 projected price was $3.94/bu for corn, $10.13/bu for soybeans and $0.73/lb for cotton. Prices could change substantially from now until the end of February, however, currently, all three commodities would have higher projected prices than last year. For 2016, corn had a projected price of $3.86/bu (harvest price $3.49/bu); soybeans had a projected price of $8.85/bu (harvest price $9.75/bu); and cotton had a projected price of $0.60/lb (harvest price $0.69/lb). Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

Cotton was up; corn, soybeans, and wheat were down for the week. For the 2016/17 marketing year, the USDA currently estimates that 14.7%, 42.2%, 47.6%, and 73.7% of U.S. corn, wheat, soybean, and cotton production will be exported. These totals do not include exports of processed products such as ethanol, DDG’s soybean meal, soybean oil etc. For corn, the three markets with the largest marketing year-to-date U.S. export commitments are Mexico (25.6%), Japan (22%), and Columbia (9.6%). Currently, total export commitments for corn are estimated at 1.973 billion bushels as at the week ended January 19. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

Farm publications appear full of equipment auction notices, giving the impression of a bleak outlook for 2017. However, I think the profitability outlook is better now than a year ago.

Soybean prices for 2017 harvest are 17 percent better now than mid-January 2016. Corn prices are even up slightly, cotton even. Wheat is currently 8 percent worse compared to harvest prices offered in January 2016. Continue reading at Southeast Farm Press.

Corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat were up for the week. New crop corn futures continue to elude the psychological barrier of $4.00/ bu. However, the trend in December 2017 corn futures has been up since the contract low of $3.58 ½ on August 31, 2016. It is likely that 2017 harvest futures will get above $4.00 in the next couple of months so holding off on pricing new crop may be warranted. Given large domestic and global supplies it remains unlikely that a dramatic price appreciation is likely, so be vigilant in pricing some production if harvest futures are between $4.00 and $4.25. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

Released: January 12, 2017

2016 Tennessee Annual Crop Production

Corn production in Tennessee is estimated at 125 million bushels, up 6 percent from the November forecast and up 7 percent from the previous crop. Yield was estimated at 151 bushels per acre, up 3 bushels from the previous forecast and down 9 bushels from the 2015 level. Acres for harvest as grain were estimated at 830,000 acres, up 100,000 acres from 2015. U.S. corn production is estimated at 15.1 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the November forecast and up 11 percent from 2015. Yields averaged 174.6 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushels from the previous forecast and up 6.2 bushels from 2015. Area harvested for grain was estimated at 86.7 million acres, down slightly from the November forecast and up 7 percent from 2015. Continue reading at TN AN Crop Prod 2016.

Corn, soybeans, and wheat were up; cotton was down for the week. On Thursday the USDA released the Quarterly Grain Stocks, Winter Wheat Seedings, and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports. December 1, corn stocks were estimated at 12.4 billion bushels, up 10% compared to 2015; soybean stocks were estimated at 2.90 billion bushels, up 7% compared to 2015; and wheat stocks were estimated at 2.07 billion bushels, up 19% compared to 2015. Stock estimates were within trade expectations for all three commodities. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

This link to  the January 12, 2017 – USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates contains a summary of the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Domestic balance sheets for corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat are displayed along with price reaction in futures markets for each commodity on the day of the report release. Additionally, supply and demand estimates for key importing and exporting countries are provided for the current month along with change in estimates from the previous report. The Profitability Outlook section contains estimated returns per acre for each commodity for 2017 based on Tennessee state average yield projections and estimated price offerings for 2017(note: cotton prices include a seed and hauling rebate). Variable expenses are based on the University of Tennessee Extension 2017 Row Crop Budgets. Prices are updated monthly; expenses are updated as warranted during the year and may be different than the expenses contained in the 2017 Row Crop Budgets. This section provides an estimation of the current relative profitability amongst major row crops in Tennessee.

Corn, cotton, and wheat were up; soybeans were down for the week. Corn futures have reversed price direction after a mid/late December slide. The March futures contract continues to be range bound trading between $3.40 and $3.70 since early October. Next week’s WASDE report could be critical as USDA may have significant revisions to both production and use. Nearby corn -to-soybean price ratio has declined from over 3.0 to 2.78. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.