RAINS KEEP PRODUCERS OUT OF THE FIELD

Rains across most of the State has helped green up pastures. At the same time, very little corn has been planted and producers are anxious to start getting corn, as well as their other crops, in the ground. Because of the incessant rains, there were only 2.9 days suitable for field work. Topsoil moisture was 3 percent short, 74 percent adequate, and 23 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture levels were 1 percent very short, 8 percent short, 78 percent adequate, and 13 percent surplus. The earlier hard freeze caused light to severe damage to most of the wheat crop. Wheat damage from the previous freeze was 6 percent severe, 31 percent moderate, 27 percent light, and 36 percent no freeze damage. Continue reading the Tennessee NASS Crop Progress report  at TN_04_03_17. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-04-03-2017.

Corn was up; cotton and soybeans were down; and wheat was mixed for the week. On Friday, the USDA released the Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports. Before the USDA reports were released, harvest futures for corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat were trading at $3.82/bu, $0.735/lb, $9.58/bu, and $4.35/bu, respectively. For the day, corn closed at $3.88 ¼, cotton at $0.7409, soybeans at $9.54, and wheat $4.39. Overall the reports were bearish for soybeans and neutral-to-bullish for corn, cotton, and wheat. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

Released: March 31, 2017
Tennessee Cotton Acreage Continues to Rebound After Record Low in 2015
NASHVILLE, Tenn. – The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released the Planting Intentions report today, showing Tennessee farmers intend to plant less corn, but more soybeans this year.

 
“Prospective plantings gives us the first indication of producer’s plans for row crop acreages,” said Debra Kenerson, Tennessee State Statistician. “In addition to farmers intending to plant 90,000 more soybean acres, this release indicates that cotton acreage is on a slow but steady increase from the record low acreage in 2015.”

 
Farmers in Tennessee intend to plant 840,000 acres of corn, 40,000 acres lower than 2016. U.S. corn growers intend to plant 90 million acres for all purposes in 2017, down four percent from last year and two percent higher than 2015. Continue reading at MarchPP17_TN.

Corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat were down for the week. As of March 24, December corn was trading 7 ¾ cents lower than last year; November soybeans were trading 54 ¼ cents higher; December cotton was trading $0.18 cents higher; and wheat was trading 31 ¼ cents lower. Similarly, in Tennessee, September and October/November cash forward contract prices are 5 cents lower and 63 cents higher for corn and soybeans, respectively.

 
Planting is quickly approaching and with substantially higher relative prices to corn it is likely that cotton and soybean acreage will see increased acreage nationally. Relative prices are only one of the factors (all though a very important one) that producers consider when determining which crops they will plant. Other important considerations include: relative changes in the cost of production, adherence to crop rotations, expected yields, anticipated weather, and planting conditions. Typically if planting conditions are good early in the planting interval corn acreage increases. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights. 

Every year I get calls from producers asking what should be their breakeven price.

While this is a number I generate monthly for profitability update reports, it really is a generic number. Each producer should have their own breakeven price number that they calculate based on their operation. While Extension coworkers and colleagues across Tennessee and other states can assist in the calculation, there will be wide variations among producers. There will be differences between operations among the basic inputs of seed, fertilizer, herbicide, insecticide, fungicide as well as fuel, repairs and labor. Each operation will have a different cost structure based on how and where inputs are purchased. The differences in input costs are really not the differences I get concerned with in calculating breakeven prices or yields. Continue reading at Southeast Farm Press.

Corn and cotton were up; soybeans and wheat were down for the week. There were limited gains and losses for the week across all four commodities as most contracts traded flat for the week.

For December corn, early week losses were more than offset by daily gains at the end of the week. Domestic planted acreage, for corn, will be closely watched. If estimates continue to indicate a reduction in corn acreage a moderate rally could occur. This week’s export sales were also a pleasant surprise for prices.

November soybeans continued to slide lower this week and are now 40 cents lower than the start of March. Soybeans continue to face headwinds due to the record South American crop, greater projected planted acreage in the U.S., and a strong USD. There is strong support in the November contract near $9.80. The USDA’s Prospective Plantings report, at the end of the month could provide some additional price volatility. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

Corn, soybeans, and wheat were down; cotton was mixed for the week.

Thursday’s WASDE report projected a record large soybean crop for Brazil and increased production estimates for South American corn production. Minor adjustments were made to the U.S. domestic balance sheet. The decrease in soybean exports was unexpected at this juncture, however record South American production and a strengthening USD, relative the Brazilian Real, provide some justification for USDA changes.

For corn, compared to last month’s report, domestic supply was unchanged; feed and residual was decreased 50 million bushels and ethanol was increased 50 million (resulting in no changed in domestic use); U.S. ending stocks were unchanged; and foreign stocks were increased 123 million bushels. Currently, global ending stocks are projected at 8.688 billion bushels (2.32 billion in the U.S. and 6.368 billion in foreign stocks), up 4.6% from the previous marketing year. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

This link to  the March 9, 2017 – USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates contains a summary of the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Domestic balance sheets for corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat are displayed along with price reaction in futures markets for each commodity on the day of the report release. Additionally, supply and demand estimates for key importing and exporting countries are provided for the current month along with change in estimates from the previous report. The Profitability Outlook section contains estimated returns per acre for each commodity for 2017 based on Tennessee state average yield projections and estimated price offerings for 2017(note: cotton prices include a seed and hauling rebate). Variable expenses are based on the University of Tennessee Extension 2017 Row Crop Budgets. Prices are updated monthly; expenses are updated as warranted during the year and may be different than the expenses contained in the 2017 Row Crop Budgets. This section provides an estimation of the current relative profitability amongst major row crops in Tennessee.