May 10, 2017 – USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates

Corn

The U.S. feed-grain outlook for 2017/18 is for lower production, domestic use, exports and ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at 14.1 billion bushels, down from last year’s record high with a lower forecast area and yield. The yield projection of 170.7 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer weather, estimated using the 1988-2016 time period. The yield model includes a downward stochastic adjustment to account for the asymmetric response of yield to July precipitation. The smaller corn crop is partly offset by the largest projected beginning stocks since 1988/89, leaving total corn supplies down from a year ago but still the second highest on record. Continue reading at  May 10, 2017 – USDA World Supply & Demand Estimates.

The Tennessee Field Office of USDA, NASS has released the 2016 cotton yields per acre for Tennessee. They can be accessed at Cotton16_TN. Please note that counties not meeting NASS publication standards are combined and shown under Other Cntys and included in State totals. Districts not meeting NASS publication standards are combined and shown under Other Districts and included in State totals.

Released: May 10, 2017

Tennessee’s Expected Winter Wheat Production Down 12 Percent from 2016

NASHVILLE, Tenn. – The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its May Crop Production report today based on the Agricultural Yield survey conducted at the beginning of the month. The report includes information on Tennessee’s winter wheat forecast and on-farm hay stocks.

 
Tennessee farmers expect to harvest 21.5 million bushels of winter wheat during 2017. The expected crop for 2017 would be down 12 percent from the previous year. Farmers seeded 390,000 acres last fall with 295,000 acres to be harvested for grain. Based on crop conditions as of May 1 and assuming a normal growing season, farmers expect a yield of 73 bushels per acre, unchanged from 2016. Acres for other uses totaled 95,000 acres and will be used as cover crop or cut as silage or hay. Continue reading at PR_MAY17_TN.

RAINS CONINUE TO BE BENEFICIAL FOR SOME, HINDRENCE FOR OTHERS

Cool, wet weather continued to keep agricultural producers out of fields. Corn, cotton, and soybean planting, along with tobacco transplanting made little or no progress as farmers waited for the rains to stop for a second week, and even caused some to contemplate changing their choice of crops to plant. The rains did improve  pasture conditions in some areas, and caused some muddy pasture conditions in others. There were only 2.2
days suitable for field work, combined with 2.0 last week. As rains continued, topsoil moisture was 54 percent adequate and 46 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture levels were similar with only 1 percent short, but 67 percent adequate and 32 percent surplus. Continue reading at TN_05_08_17. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-05-08-2017.

Corn, soybeans, and wheat were up; cotton was down for the week. Snow in the central plains from last weekend provided the initial catalyst for a rally in grain markets early in the week; however by the end of the week corn and wheat gave back over half of the early week gains.

Corn planting progress increased 17% last week (approximately 15.3 million acres planted in one week). It is truly remarkable how quickly farmers can plant a crop if Mother Nature cooperates. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

RAINS CONTINUE

Rains continued last week, keeping most farmers out of their fields. Corn, cotton, and soybean planting remained on hold as farmers waited for the rains to stop. Tobacco plants were ready to be transplanted, but producers were unable to get into the fields due to excessive moisture. The rains did improve pasture and hay conditions, but many hay fields were short due to the adverse effects of last year’s drought. There were 2.0 days suitable for field work. Topsoil moisture was 1 percent short, 54 percent adequate, and 45 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture levels were 5 percent short, 65 percent adequate, and 30 percent surplus. Hay and Roughage Supplies were 11 percent very short, 28 percent short, 55 percent adequate, and 6 percent surplus. Continue reading at TN_05_01_17. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-05-01-2017.

Corn and wheat were up; cotton was mixed; and soybeans were down for the week. December corn opened April at $3.89 ¾ and closed at $3.85, down 4 ¾ cents for the month. The trading range for April was $3.79 ¼ to $3.95 ¾. In March, the December contract decreased 4 ¾ cents. Corn has traded mostly between $3.75 and $4.00 for the past 7 months.

November soybeans opened April at $9.54 ¾ and closed at $9.53 ¼, down 1 ½ cents for the month. The trading range for April was $9.41 ½ to $9.68 ½. This was after the major price declines in March when the November contract decreased 64 ¼ cents.

December cotton opened April at 74.05 and closed at 74.62, up 0.57 cents for the month. The trading range for April was 72.19 to 75.16 cents. Harvest cotton futures are now at a 5 cent discount compared to the nearby contract. July wheat opened April at $4.42 ¼ and closed at $4.32 ¼, down 10 cents for the month. The trading range for April was $4.49 ½ to $4.16.

Weather will be the dominant influence in markets as we move through the planting and early growing periods. Producers should remain patient and look for marketing opportunities to increase pricing. For example, in each of the past two years the December contract has had short lived rallies above $4.25/bu (July 2015 and June 2016). These marketing opportunities have been brief but it is reasonable to expect we will see a rally during this production season, so producers need to remain vigilant for opportunities to secure profitable prices. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

RAINS HALT FIELD WORK

Rains, sometimes heavy, brought most field work to a standstill. A few isolated cases of flooding were reported with newly planted crops sustaining some damage. Strawberry harvest was also adversely affected. The state’s wheat crop continued to look good. Pasture condition improved with the added moisture. There were 3.4 days suitable for field work. Topsoil moisture was 4 percent short, 64 percent adequate, and 32 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture levels were 8 percent short, 73 percent adequate, and 19 percent surplus. Continue reading the Tennessee NASS Crop Progress report  at  TN_04_24_17. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at  CropProg-04-24-2017.