TROPICAL STORM BRINGS RAIN

Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Cindy made their way through West and Middle Tennessee this week. Many producers experienced less time in the field than they would have liked, causing some to bustle earlier in the week. These rains and mild temperatures are producing favorable yield conditions for most crops. There were 4.0 days suitable for field work. Topsoil moisture was 3 percent short, 70 percent adequate and 27 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture was 3 percent short, 78 percent adequate and 19 percent surplus. Continue reading at TN_06_26_17. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-06-26-2017.

Corn, soybeans, and wheat were down; cotton was mixed for the week.

The average cash price for a bushel of soybeans, in Tennessee, fell to $8.94
on Thursday, June 22. This is the lowest average price since March 15, 2016.
Similarly, harvest cash forward contracts (October/November delivery)
dipped to an average of $9.01/bu, the lowest since March 18, 2016.  For soybean prices to improve, it is likely that one (or both of the following will need to happen: 1) export sales will need to rebound – export sales for this marketing year have been strong, however recent weeks export sales commitments have been underwhelming (4.2 million bushels this past (reported) week for the 2016/17 and 2017/18 marketing years combined) and sales commitments for the 2017/18 marketing year are substantially lower than past years (3.4 MMT compared to 6.2, 6.0, and 10.3 MMT for the previous 3 years at the same time in the marketing year); Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

WHEAT HARVEST, CORN, SOYBEANS, COTTON CROPS PROGRESSING WELL

Wheat harvest was ahead of schedule, with soybeans, corn, and cotton progressing well. Some eastern counties had excessively wet soil that slowed hay harvesting and field work. Winter wheat yield was above average in most of the central and western regions. Pasture conditions were fair to excellent except in some eastern counties. Hay quality may have been affected by recent rains. There were 5.2 days suitable for field work. Topsoil moisture was 1 percent very short, 7 percent short, 74 percent adequate and 18 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture was 1 percent very short, 5 percent short, 81 percent adequate and 13 percent surplus. Continue reading at TN_06_19_17. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-06-19-2017.

Corn and cotton were down; soybeans were mixed; and wheat was up for
the week.

U.S. corn and soybean planting is all but complete. As such, focus will turn to
the critical pollination period for corn (June-July) and pod filling stage for
soybeans (July-August). The past two years the futures market has provided short lived rallies that offered opportunities to price corn near $4.50 for the December contract. Weather will be the driving factor in determining if the market can produce a similar
opportunity this summer. Any rallies, in the futures markets, should be viewed as opportunities to price additional production (with the caveat that projected production is sufficient to meet the additional pricing commitment). Do not trade price risk for production risk! Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

GREAT PROGRESS ON FIRST CUTTINGS OF HAY, WHEAT HARVEST

Overall, weather conditions were advantageous to both crop development and harvest, with both showing considerable progress over last week and year. Producers made pronounced progress with first cuttings of hay and wheat harvest under favorable conditions for both crops. Also on a positive note, both cattle and pastures were reported to be in mostly good to excellent condition. There were 5.4 days suitable for field work. Topsoil moisture was 1 percent very short, 9 percent short, 80 percent adequate and 10 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture was 1 percent very short, 4 percent short, 83 percent adequate and 12 percent surplus. Continue reading at TN_06_12_17. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-06-12-2017.

Corn, soybeans, and wheat were up; cotton was down for the week. Today the USDA released its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and Crop Production reports. A full summary of the reports for corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat can be found at: http://economics.ag.utk.edu/outlook.html.

Corn: No changes were made to the domestic balance sheet this month. 2017/18 foreign stocks were decreased by 37 million bushels from the previous month. The USDA is projecting a decrease in global corn stocks of 1.192 billion bushels from the 2016/17 marketing year to the 2017/18 marketing year. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

June 9, 2017 – USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates

Corn
Market Reaction: July 2017 corn futures closed up 2 cents at $3.87 ¾ with a trading range for the day of $3.80 ¾ to $3.89 ½. December 2017 corn futures closed up 2 ¼ cents at $4.06 with a trading range for the day of $3.98 ½ to $4.07. USDA is currently projecting global corn ending stocks to contract over 1 billion bushels from 2016/17 to 2017/18. This is positive to long term price prospects; however US growing conditions and production will be important if this reduction is to materialize. Continue reading at June 9, 2017 USDA World Supply & Demand Estimates.

WET CONDITIONS SLOW FIELD WORK

Hit-and-miss showers and thunderstorms kept some farmers from their fields this past week. Those farmers who were able to get into their fields made good progress wrapping up corn and cotton planting and getting soybeans planted. The winter wheat crop was heading toward harvest. Some producers were able to cut hay between rains. Livestock producers reported pastures were in mostly good shape. There were 4.5 days suitable for field work. Topsoil moisture was 4 percent short, 75 percent adequate and 21 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture was 1 percent very short, 3 percent short, 77 percent adequate and 19 percent surplus. Continue reading at TN_06_05_17. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-06-05-2017.