October 12, 2017 – USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates

Corn

Market Reaction: December 2017 corn futures closed up 3 cents at $3.49 with a trading range for the day of $3.42 ½ to $3.54. December 2018 corn futures closed up 2 ½ cents at $3.94 ¾ with a trading range for the day of $3.89 ¼ to $3.99 ¾. The December 2017 contract set a new low at 11am when the report was released, however prices increased 11 cents in the minutes after the report was released before retreating throughout the remainder of the day to close up 3 cents. Yield was increased 1.9 bu/acre (bearish), harvested acreage was decreased 400,000 acres (bullish), and total use was increased 35 million bushels (bullish). At the end of the day, US ending stocks were projected up 5 million bushels at 2.34 billion (bearish) and foreign stocks were projected down 65 million bushels at 5.571 billion (bullish). Continue reading for additional comments and Profitability Outlook  update at Supply & Demand Estimates and Profitability Outlook.

HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE RAIN CREATE CONCERN

Harvest is in full swing across the Volunteer State. Continued dry and warm conditions provided Tennessee producers multiple opportunities to continue or begin harvest on late season crops. Yield reports are optimistic, but the fear of damage due to dry conditions is surfacing. There were 6.4 days suitable for field work. Topsoil moisture was 15 percent very short, 37 percent short, 46 percent adequate, and 2 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture was 13 percent very short, 24 percent short, 61 percent adequate and 2 percent surplus.  Continue reading at TN_10_08_17. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-10-10-2017.

Corn was down; soybeans and cotton were up; and wheat was mixed for the
week.

Stocks-to-use ratio is a commonly used measure to predict marketing year average
price for corn and soybeans. Simply stated stocks-to-use is a measure of the
amount of a commodity held in reserve (marketing year ending stocks) compared to use for a specified time (annual consumption or annual
consumption plus annual exports). Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

GOOD YEAR FOR HAY PRODUCTION; CORN, SOYBEAN YIELDS PROMISING

Tennessee’s agricultural producers continue to cut hay, with each cutting showing promise of adequate supplies going into winter. Drier weather has returned to the Volunteer State, allowing farmers to catch up on corn harvest and begin soybean harvest but stressful for pasture conditions. There were 6.9 days suitable for field work. Topsoil moisture was 11 percent very short, 23 percent short, 65 percent adequate, and 1 percent surplus.
Subsoil moisture was 12 percent very short, 19 percent short, 67 percent adequate and 2 percent surplus. Hay and roughage supplies were 1 percent very short, 9 percent short, 75 percent adequate, and 15 percent surplus. Continue reading at TN_10_02_17. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-10-02-2017.

Corn was up; soybeans and wheat were down; and cotton was mixed for the week.

Today the USDA released the September 1 Grain Stocks report. The report provides an estimated stocks carry-over from the 2016/17 marketing year for corn and soybeans. Overall, the Grain Stocks report was supportive for corn and soybeans and bearish for wheat prices. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

Good Corn Yields Reported, Winter Wheat Planting Begins

Corn harvest was active last week, with some producers reporting corn for grain yields as good as or better than last year’s average. Isolated showers in southern Middle Tennessee delayed some harvest efforts. Producers are planning their last cuttings of hay, adding to their winter stocks. Some winter wheat has been planted. Crops and pastures were in mostly good to excellent condition. There were 6.4 days suitable for field work. Topsoil moisture was 8 percent very short, 5 percent short, 83 percent adequate, and 4 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture was 9 percent very short, 8 percent short, 78 percent adequate and 5 percent surplus. Continue reading at TN_09_25_17.  The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-09-25-2017.

Corn and cotton were down; soybeans and wheat were up for the week.

December corn futures prices have moved sideways since the contract low on August 31 of $3.44 ¼, closing at $3.50 ¼ on Thursday. Mixed yield reports across the Corn Belt continue to provide some production uncertainty. Fur-ther complicating the supply picture are USDA’s projections of 2.335 billion bushels of domestic stocks versus an almost 1 billion bushel projected decrease (8.935 billion bushels to 7.971 billion bushels, an 11% year-over-year reduction) in global corn stocks from the 2016/17 marketing year end to the 2017/18 marketing year end. Corn prices are likely to establish (if the low hasn’t al-ready been set) a bottom this month. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

WEATHER SLOWS BURLEY TOBACCO HARVEST

Burley harvest was delayed by wet weather conditions. As the weather dries, harvest is expected to again be in full swing. Corn harvest has progressed with good yields reported, some even above last year’s record. Cotton defoliation was ongoing. Producers are preparing to make another cutting of hay, continuing to build their stocks for winter. There were 3.8 days suitable for field work. Topsoil moisture was 10 percent very short, 4 percent short, 70 percent adequate, and 16 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture was 12 percent very short, 6 percent short, 70 percent adequate and 12 percent surplus. Continue reading at TN_09_18_17. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-09-18-2017.