Soybeans and cotton were up; corn was mixed; and wheat was down for the
week.

After setting a new contract low ($3.48 ¾) the previous week, March corn
futures returned to the familiar trading range of $3.50 to $3.70. As the New
Year approaches a mild seasonal price appreciation should be expected; however
at this point it is unlikely (baring a weather event in South America or a trade disruption) that prices will exit its current trading range. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

DRIER CONDITIONS ALLOW HARVEST TO RESUME

Drier conditions returned to Tennessee, allowing farmers to complete corn harvest, and to make progress harvesting cotton and soybeans as well. Tobacco producers continued to be busy stripping tobacco. Cattle producers in areas that received less rainfall than usual started to put out hay for their herds. There were 4.5 days suitable for field work, up from 3.1 the previous week. Topsoil moisture was 1 percent very short, 5 percent short, 78 percent adequate, and 16 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture was 2 percent very short, 9 percent short, 82 percent adequate and 7 percent surplus. Continue reading at TN_11_20_17. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at  CropProg-11-20-2017.

Soybeans and cotton were up; corn was mixed; and wheat was down for the
week.

Fridays rally helped pull commodity prices up after early week price declines
on follow through from the November 9th WASDE and Crop Production reports.
On Friday, corn contracts closed up 5 ½ -6 cents, soybeans up 15 ½ – 18
½ cents, cotton up 0.17-0.57 cents, and wheat up 4-5 ¾ cents.
As harvest winds down it is important for producers to re-evaluate their marketing plan. Consideration may need to be given to the following: 1) Storage – How much of the crop stored is priced versus unpriced? What are my alternatives for the unpriced crop held
in storage?; 2) Re-ownership (establishing a position in the futures market without holding the physical commodity – after the cash sale occurred) – If the cash crop was sold, are strategies using futures and options to take a position or potential position, in order
to participate in a potential post-harvest rally, worthwhile; 3) Price enhancement – Are there option strategies that can allow me to increase my average selling price for the crop by collecting premiums? Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

LOCALIZED FLOODING CAUSES DAMAGE

Localized flooding in upper Middle Tennessee caused visible damage to some field crops as heavy rains came through the area Tuesday night. Otherwise, last week was basically a repeat of the week before with wet conditions continuing to delay harvest of field crops. Tobacco producers were busy stripping tobacco. There were 3.1 days suitable for field work, down from 3.6 the previous week. Topsoil moisture was 3 percent short, 77 percent adequate, and 20 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture was 2 percent very short, 8 percent short, 80 percent adequate and 10 percent surplus.  Continue reading at TN_11_13_17. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-11-13-2017.

Soybeans and wheat were up; cotton was mixed; and corn was down for the
week.

The USDA released its monthly WASDE report on Thursday. The largest surprise
in the report was increasing 2017 projected national average yield to 175.4 bu/acre, up 3.6 bu/acre from last month’s estimate and 0.8 bu/acre over last year’s all-time record. A small increase was anticipated due to favorable conditions the last two months of the growing season, but not the 3.6 bu/acre indicated in the report. Weekly Crop Progress reports indicated corn condition at 66% good-to-excellent for the week of October 29, 2017 compared to 74% good-to-excellent in 2016 (11% poor-to-very poor in 2017 compared to 7% last year), so markets were caught a little off guard by such a large increase and as a result corn futures prices decreased 6-7 cents immediately following the report release. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

November 9, 2017 – USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates

 Corn

Market Reaction: December 2017 corn futures closed down 6 ¾ cents at $3.41 ½ with a trading range for the day of $3.40 ¾ to $3.49 ¾. December 2018 corn futures closed down 6 ¼ cents at $3.87 ½ with a trading range for the day of $3.86 ½ to $3.95. The largest surprise on the report was an increase in average US corn yield to an all-time record of 175.4 (up 3.6 bu/acre). Markets tumbled lower as acreage was left unchanged resulting in an increase in production of 298 million bushels from last month’s report. Partially offsetting were 75 million bushel increases in both feed and export use. The dramatic yield increase is contradictory to Crop Progress reports that had the 2017 crop at 66% good-to-excellent compared to 74% in 2016.

USDA Summary: This month’s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, increased feed and residual use and exports, and greater ending stocks.  Corn production is forecast at 14.578 billion bushels, up 298 million from last month on a record-high yield. Feed and residual use is raised 75 million bushels based on a larger crop.  Exports are raised 75 million bushels, reflecting expectations of improved U.S. competitiveness, reduced exports for Ukraine, and increased demand from Mexico based on sharply lower sorghum production prospects.  With supply rising faster than use, corn ending stocks are up 147 million bushels from last month.  The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged with a midpoint of $3.20 per bushel. Continue reading at UT Monthly Crop Comments.

Released: November 9, 2017

November 1 Tennessee Crop Production Forecast

Corn production in Tennessee is forecast at 121 million bushels, up 1 percent from the October forecast but down 4 percent from the previous crop. Yield was estimated at 171.0 bushels per acre, up 1.0 bushel from last month and up 20.0 bushels from the 2016 level. Acres for harvest as grain were estimated at 705,000 acres, down 125,000 acres from 2016. The U.S. corn production is forecast at 14.6 billion bushels, up 2 percent from the October forecast but down 4 percent from 2016. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average 175.4 bushels per acre, up 3.6 bushels from last month and up 0.8 bushel from 2016. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 83.1 million acres, unchanged from the October forecast and down 4 percent from 2016. Continue reading at NovCrop17_TN.

RAIN CONTINUES TO DELAY HARVEST

Rain continued to delay harvest of field crops, leaving producers hoping for drier conditions. These same rains gave a boost to pasture and forage conditions, making livestock producers optimistic about winter feed supplies. There were 3.6 days suitable for field work, down from 4.4 the previous week. Topsoil moisture was 1 percent very short, 6 percent short, 75 percent adequate, and 18 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture was 2 percent very short, 10 percent short, 80 percent adequate and 8 percent surplus.  Continue reading at TN_11_06_17. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-11-06-2017.