Cotton, soybeans, and wheat were up; and corn was mixed since December 22.

A New Year brings new opportunities for marketing, however it is also a good time to examine where the markets are relative to past years. The new crop December corn contract closed 2017 at $3.84/bu, virtually the same as the 2016 ($3.80/bu) and 2015  $3.83/bu) December contracts at the same time the past two years. Corn markets continue to suffer from large domestic supplies and a glut of grains on the world market. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

Corn, cotton, and wheat were up; and soybeans were down for the week. The nearby corn futures contract has traded between $3.01 (8/29/16) and $4.43 ¼ (7/13/15) since July 2014. 1,270 calendar days when the nearby contract has traded in a $1.42 range. As of the market close today, the nearby contract was $3.52, in the middle-to-lower end of the long-term range. Looking towards 2018 it is very unlikely that nearby corn futures will exit this long term trading range. Large global and domestic stocks of corn and other grains will limit rallies in the nearby futures contract. As such, producers may want to evaluate opportunities in deferred futures contracts and/or improvements in local basis as a path to higher prices. Given record corn yields in Tennessee a few extra cents per bushel can greatly assist producer profitability. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

Corn, soybeans, and wheat were down; and cotton was up for the week. With U.S. harvest complete, commodity markets will now shift focus to South American crop progress and U.S. exports. Each Thursday, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service provides a summary of export sales for agricultural products (weekly numbers for corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat are quoted below). Data in the report are broken into two general categories of export sales: 1) exports (shipped); and 2) outstanding sales (sales  that have not been shipped). Together these categories make total export sales commitments. These two categories are often compared to the USDA total marketing year projected exports – the export estimates contained (and revised) each month in the USDA WASDE report. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

The Tennessee Field Office of USDA, NASS has released the wheat yields for Tennessee by County. They can be assessed at  Wht17_TN.

The Tennessee Monthly Crop Outlook – MonthlyCropOutlook121217 – is a summary of the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Domestic balance sheets for corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat are displayed along with price reaction in futures markets for each commodity on the day of the report release. Additionally, supply and demand estimates for key importing and exporting countries are provided for the current month along with change in estimates from the previous report. The Profitability Outlook section contains estimated returns per acre for each commodity based  on 2017 Tennessee state average/trend yields and current price offerings (note: cotton prices include a seed and hauling rebate). Variable expenses are based on the University of Tennessee Extension 2017 Row Crop Budgets. Prices are updated monthly; expenses are updated as warranted during the year and may be different than the expenses contained in the 2017 Row Crop Budgets. This section provides an estimation of the current relative profitability amongst major row crops in Tennessee. The report is prepared monthly by Dr. Aaron Smith and Chuck Danehower.

Corn, soybeans, and wheat were down; and cotton was up for the week. March corn futures continue to struggle to gain positive traction. The contract low, $3.48 ¾, occurred on November 16, since then the contract has not traded above $3.60 ½, an 11 ¾ cent trading range. January soybean futures set 4-month highs earlier this week before retreating below $10 on Friday. Next week’s USDA WASDE report will determine if prices breakout to the upside or establish a new contract lows for corn. U.S. exports and adjustments to the South American crop will be closely watched for soybeans. Major revisions to the domestic crop on the WASDE report are not expected. Continue reading at Tennesseee Market Highlights.

Corn, soybeans, and cotton were up; and wheat was mixed for the week.
November was not a good month for grain futures. December corn closed
the month at $3.41 ¾, down 4 cents for the month and December wheat
closed at $4.09 ¼, down 9 ½ cents for the month. January soybeans traded
flat for the month closing at $9.85 ¾, up 1 cent from the start of the month.
Cotton futures had a terrific November. The December contract closed the month at 75.04 cents, up 6.33 cents for the month. While many factors have influenced futures prices this past month, export sales commitments shed some light on futures market
price direction in November. Year-to-date cotton export sales commitments are 9.646 million bales (2.19 million in exports-to-date and 7.456 million in outstanding sales), 41% higher than a year ago and 72% of the USDA’s marketing year total. By comparison
total export sales commitments for: soybeans are 1.264 billion bushels, down 18% from last year and 56% of the USDA’s marketing year total; corn are 867 million bushels, down 27% from last year and 45% of the USDA’s marketing year total; and wheat are 634
million bushels, down 9% from last year and 63% of the USDA’s marketing year total. Strong export demand for cotton was a major driver of improved cotton futures prices. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

EXCELLENT WEATHER FOR HARVEST, PLANTING

Weather conditions last week were ideal for row crop harvest and small grain planting. Producers took full advantage of the weather to finish corn harvest. Both soybean and cotton harvest are nearly complete and wheat planting is almost finished. Row crop producers report favorable yields. Cattle producers are starting to feed hay as pastures get short. There were 6.2 days suitable for field work, up from 4.5 the previous week.
Topsoil moisture was 1 percent very short, 8 percent short, 87 percent adequate, and 4 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture was 1 percent very short, 7 percent short, 87 percent adequate and 5 percent surplus. Continue reading at TN_11_27_17. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-11-27-2017. This is the last Crop Progress report until April, 2018.