Corn, soybeans, and wheat were down; cotton was up for the week. This week provided confirmation that weather is firmly in the drive seat for row crop prices. Drought in the southern plains has pushed cotton prices to new highs. Severe drought in the southern plains and moderate drought in parts of North Dakota have helped hold wheat prices in a three week range between $5.02 and $5.54. Above average growing conditions throughout the Corn Belt and Mid-south contributed to week-overweek declines in corn and soybean harvest futures of 13 and 48 cents. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

RECENT RAINS BRING VARIABLE CONDITIONS

Tennessee producers experienced multiple rain days with fluctuating amounts throughout the state. Fieldwork and other activities were halted during the 2.6 days suitable for field work. Some report concern for wheat and hay condition as lodging is present in some areas of the state. Others are finding great conditions with crops and cattle. Wet conditions are not helping the progression of hay cutting and tobacco setting. There is concern about
the maturity of the hay. Topsoil moisture was 4 percent short, 66 percent adequate, and 30 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture was 1 percent very short, 5 percent short, 70 percent adequate, and 24 percent surplus. Continue reading at TN_06_03_18 .The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-06-04-2018.

Corn, soybeans, and wheat were down; cotton was up for the week. Volatility continues to be prevalent in commodity markets. For row crops, the source of the volatility is primarily weather and the on-again-off-again trade posturing between the US and Canada, Mexico, and China. This week trade friction heated up again with the US announcing tariffs would be implemented on steel and aluminum exports from Canada, Mexico, and the European Union. The three parties predictably responded with retaliatory tariffs on US goods. The proposed retaliatory tariffs have a limited impact on agriculture, however the series of tariffs and retaliatory tariffs likely indicates that an agreement on a new NAFTA is not forthcoming any time soon. An exit from NAFTA could have dramatic implications for the agricultural sector. Trade negotiations between the US and China also hit a bumpy patch
as the US indicated it would proceed with $50 billion in tariffs in retaliation to intellectual property theft concerns with China. These tariffs have not been imposed at this time but if they were imposed and as a result China imposed retaliatory tariffs it would likely have a strong agricultural component. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

UNEVEN RAINS FRUSTRATE FARMERS

Heavy rains in some areas drove farmers from the field while some eastern counties found themselves still needing rain. Planting of corn, soybeans and cotton continued. Hay producers reported a substantial drop in quality and yields from previous years. Unseasonably high temperatures placed a great deal of stress on cattle and other livestock. There were 3.9 days suitable for field work. Topsoil moisture was 1 percent very short, 9 percent short, 69 percent adequate, and 21 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture was 2 percent very short, 7 percent short, 69 percent adequate, and 22 percent surplus. Continue reading at TN_05_29_18.   The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-05-29-2018.

Corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat were up for the week. Corn and soybean markets continue to closely follow the trade situation with China and weather across key production regions. This week easing of trade tensions with China caused an immediate 20 cent increase in soybean futures on Monday with additional price increases for the rest of the week. Corn futures also had a similar rally. The trade news this week was very positive for agriculture (China indicated it would by “large amounts” of US agricultural and energy products to help narrow its trade deficit with the US), however negotiations remain  very fluid and could result in continued market volatility (up or down) as negotiations  continue to evolve. Drought concerns are at the forefront of wheat and cotton futures markets. Dry conditions in the Southern Plains have helped push wheat and cotton futures to new six month highs. Additionally, dry conditions in the Dakotas and Minnesota could  continue to support wheat futures. July wheat futures are up 68 ½ cents since April 23 closing on Friday at $5.43. December cotton has accelerated its upward move gaining over 5 cents since May 16. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

PROGRESS IN PLANTING

Producers in Tennessee took full advantage of 4.7 days suitable for field work this week. Many report significant gains in planting of corn, full season soybeans, and cotton. Other fieldwork included herbicide and nitrogen applications to corn and hay cutting. There are concerns circulating through the state in regard to varying need for rain, cattle prices, and hay yields. Overall, pastures and cattle are in good condition and rain is in the forecast. Topsoil moisture was 2 percent very short, 8 percent short, 65 percent adequate, and 25 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture was 2 percent very short, 7 percent short, 68 percent  adequate, and 23 percent surplus.  Continue reading at  TN_05_21_18.  The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at  CropProg-05-21-2018.

Corn, cotton, and wheat were up; soybeans were down for the week. Trade negotiations and weather continued to drive market direction this week. However, bubbling under the surface of commodity markets is the strengthening USD, which could have an impact on US agricultural exports for the remainder of 2018 and beyond. The USD Index has increased from 89.23 on April 17 to 93.38 on May 17, a 4.6% increase in value in one month. A strong USD makes agricultural exports less competitive on the global market. The USD index is a weighted measure of several currencies, so it provides a general direction of the strength of the USD relative to a global basket of currencies. Each commodity has currency exchange rates that are more important. For example, the Brazilian Real-to-USD exchange rate is important to soybean exports. As of May 17, 2018, one Brazilian Real would purchase 0.26997 USD, down 8.3% in the past month (On April 17, one Brazilian Real would purchase 0.29449 USD). While many factors impact the global demand for soybeans it will be important to watch the strength of the USD relative to the Brazilian Real (and to a lesser extent the Argentina Peso) throughout 2018 and into 2019. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PUT PRODUCERS TO WORK

Tennessee farmers made significant progress during 6.0 days suitable for field work.  The state experienced warm and dry conditions for most of the week. This allowed producers to make considerable headway with all plantings, fungicide applications, and hay cutting. Many report improved conditions for most crops and cattle due to the favorable weather. Some are concerned with hay yields due to the previously low temperatures, but hopeful for the condition of future cuttings. Topsoil moisture was 1 percent very short, 8 percent short, 84 percent adequate, and 7 percent surplus.  Subsoil moisture was 3 percent short, 67 percent adequate, and 30 percent surplus.  Continue reading at TN_05_14_18. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-05-14-2018.