November 9, 2017 – USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates

 Corn

Market Reaction: December 2017 corn futures closed down 6 ¾ cents at $3.41 ½ with a trading range for the day of $3.40 ¾ to $3.49 ¾. December 2018 corn futures closed down 6 ¼ cents at $3.87 ½ with a trading range for the day of $3.86 ½ to $3.95. The largest surprise on the report was an increase in average US corn yield to an all-time record of 175.4 (up 3.6 bu/acre). Markets tumbled lower as acreage was left unchanged resulting in an increase in production of 298 million bushels from last month’s report. Partially offsetting were 75 million bushel increases in both feed and export use. The dramatic yield increase is contradictory to Crop Progress reports that had the 2017 crop at 66% good-to-excellent compared to 74% in 2016.

USDA Summary: This month’s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, increased feed and residual use and exports, and greater ending stocks.  Corn production is forecast at 14.578 billion bushels, up 298 million from last month on a record-high yield. Feed and residual use is raised 75 million bushels based on a larger crop.  Exports are raised 75 million bushels, reflecting expectations of improved U.S. competitiveness, reduced exports for Ukraine, and increased demand from Mexico based on sharply lower sorghum production prospects.  With supply rising faster than use, corn ending stocks are up 147 million bushels from last month.  The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged with a midpoint of $3.20 per bushel. Continue reading at UT Monthly Crop Comments.