Corn: Corn futures have traded $0.02 lower since the market’s open on Monday morning. Informa has just released their private estimate of what the national corn crop yield will be. Their estimated national yield for corn is 174.8 bushels per acres. That is in line with the USDA August 12th estimate of a national yield of 175.1 bushels per acre. The USDA continues to rate the corn crop in a very favorable light with 75% being rated as good-to-excellent. They also reported that 92% of the crop at the dough stage with 60% having already reached dent. Informa’s estimate is likely the closest to USDA’s estimate that has been released by a private company. The market did not appear to react surprised by the figures, which could mean that the trade is beginning to anticipate a very large crop. Locally, corn basis has begun to improve slightly at some local elevators.
Soybeans: Soybean futures have traded $0.12 lower for the week. Informa has released their estimate for the national soybean yield. Their estimate is higher than the USDA’s estimated national yield for soybeans. Currently, the USDA’s has the national soybean yield pegged at 48.9 bushels per acre. Informa estimated the national yield of 49.5 bushels per acre. This is the second estimate from a private company within the past week that has estimated that the crop is larger than what the USDA estimates. This means that we are setting the stage for a very large bean crop. On Monday, the USDA rated 73% of the soybean crop as being good-to-excellent with 94% of the crop already setting pods. Locally, soybean basis continues to remain strong due the export market still needing soybeans.
Wheat: At this time, there is no update on the wheat market. Locally, producers are insinuating that wheat acres will be down in 2017 due to prices.
Cotton: December cotton futures closed at 67.76. The cotton market has been trading sideways over the course of the past week. Cotton equities are currently near $0.13. On Monday, the USDA rated 48% of the crop as good-to-excellent, which is down from a rating of 54% good-to-excellent as of this time last year. The USDA crop progress report also indicated that 95% of the crop has begun to set bolls with 23% of the bolls already opening. The cotton crop looks to be an early crop this year. Several producers are reporting that they will begin to apply defoliant within two weeks or so.
Take Home Message: Crop prices continue on their downward trend this week. Private company estimates have varied quite a bit. If you compare the Pro Farmer Tour crop estimate to the estimate that Informa released today, then you will see the large range that we are looking at in regard to the national yield for corn and soybeans. This goes to show the sheer uncertainty that the industry has right now to what the actual size of the crop is. Corn harvest will begin to pick up next week and we will have a better idea of what kind of crop is out there. Producers should continue to monitor their crop budgets and identify what price levels they have to price their grain at in order to be profitable. At these price levels, a lot of grain will go into the bin in hopes that these markets turn around.
West TN Grain Bids: Grain Newsletter 9-2-2016
