Corn: Corn futures have traded $0.29 lower since the market’s open on Monday morning. Farm Journal has just released the results of the Pro Farmer 2016 Crop Tour. Their estimated national yield for corn is 170.2 bushels per acres. That is less than the USDA August 12th estimate of a national yield of 175.1 bushels per acre. Illinois was projected to have an average yield of 194 bushels per acre for the corn crop planted there. Currently, the USDA estimates the average yield for Illinois to be 200 bushels per acre. The USDA continues to rate the corn crop in a very favorable light with 75% being rated as good-to-excellent. They also reported that 85% of the crop at the dough stage with 40% having already reached dent. With private estimates at odds with USDA forecasts, it will be interesting to see how the market reacts to the estimated yields during the next trading session
Soybeans: Soybean futures have traded $0.34 lower for the week. The Pro Farmer crop tour indicated that their estimate is higher than the USDA’s estimated national yield for soybeans. Currently, the USDA’s has the national soybean yield pegged at 48.9 bushels per acre. The Pro Farmer crop tour resulted in an estimated national yield of 49.3 bushels per acre. The crop tour revealed that the yields in Iowa and Illinois are expected to be rather large at 58.5 bushels per acre for each state. On Monday, the USDA rated 72% of the soybean crop as being good-to-excellent with 89% of the crop already setting pods.
Wheat: The wheat market was relatively quiet this past week. The price direction of the wheat market will be dependent upon what happens oversea markets for the time being.
Cotton: December cotton futures closed at 67.99. After Texas starting to receive rain, the weather premium that was priced into the cotton market has been erased. Cotton equities are currently near $0.13. On Monday, the USDA rated 47% of the crop as good-to-excellent, which is down from a rating of 53% good-to-excellent as of this time last year. The USDA crop progress report also indicated that 92% of the crop has begun to set bolls with 16% of the bolls already opening.
Take Home Message: Crop prices have been under quite a bit of pressure this week. Pro Farmers is expecting yields to be lower than what the USDA has projected for the corn crop, which is bullish news for corn prices. For beans, their estimates were higher, which means a higher supply. The Pro Farmer results were announced after the market’s close this afternoon. We will have to wait until the next trading session to see if the results of the crop tour will impact grain markets. These private company estimates may not have a direct impact on the market. However, they do add some validity to the comments that USDA’s figures could be too high for corn. Farmers are faced with making the decision to either price more grain ahead of harvest or hold on to their grain as long as they can. If yields are as high as the USDA is projecting, prices could come under even more pressure. Some local producers are beginning to harvest corn here in West TN, which means that yield figures will start to trickle in very soon.
West TN Grain Elevator Bids: Grain Newsletter 8-26-2016
