|
Price |
Change |
|
| U.S. Dollar |
79.82 |
+0.30 |
| Crude Oil |
95.97 |
-0.07 |
| Dow |
13,873 |
+223 |
Cotton and soybean prices are up while corn and wheat prices are down for the week. We are still seeing a certain degree of uncertainty with foreign weather keeping prices moving up or down depending on that day’s weather forecast. South American production while still large may have some weather related issues that could reduce production from USDA’s latest estimates. Conditions in Australia could have some impact on the wheat market. Here in the U.S., there is not a consensus among the weather watchers on what directions we are going in. So, all in all this uncertainty should keep weather premiums build in the market at least during the winter and most likely through the spring. The immediate concern on how the weather will affect the markets will be manifested in South American production.
Corn:
Nearby:
| Corn |
Price |
Change |
| March |
$7.20 ¾ |
-$0.06 ¾ |
| Support |
$7.12 |
-$0.03 |
| Resistance |
$7.32 |
-$0.06 |
| Technical |
Sell |
— |
| 20 Day MA |
$7.08 |
+$0.06 |
| 50 Day MA |
$7.23 |
-$0.01 |
| 100 Day MA |
$7.39 |
-$0.03 |
Weekly exports were below expectations with net sales of 7.5 million bushels (5.5 million bushels for the 2012/13 marketing year and 2 million bushels of net sales for the 2013/14 year). Ethanol production improved 8,000 barrels per day to 792,000 barrels per day in the latest report. It is still behind the pace to meet USDA projections.
New crop:
| Corn |
Price |
Change |
| September |
$6.07 ¼ |
-$0.06 ¼ |
| Support |
$6.02 |
-$0.03 |
| Resistance |
$6.15 |
-$0.06 |
| Technical |
Strong Sell |
– |
| 20 Day MA |
$6.10 |
-$0.03 |
| 50 Day MA |
$6.31 |
-$0.03 |
| 100 Day MA |
$6.48 |
-$0.02 |
I would have 10% of 2013 production priced. Target the $6.20 – $6.50 range for additional pricing but if prices start to drop back below $6.00, also be ready to price part of the crop.
Cotton:
Nearby:
| Cotton |
Price(cents) |
Change |
| March |
80.52 |
+1.97 |
| Support |
78.87 |
+1.87 |
| Resistance |
83.57 |
+3.91 |
| Technical |
Strong Buy |
= |
| 20 Day MA |
76.86 |
+0.91 |
| 50 Day MA |
75.02 |
+0.81 |
| 100 Day MA |
74.31 |
+0.14 |
| AWP |
66.16 |
+2.77 |
All cotton weekly export net sales slowed but were still above expectations at 264,100 bales (213,700 bales of Upland cotton net sales for 2012/13; net sales of 29,700 bales of Upland cotton for 2013/14 and net sales of 20,700 bales of Pima cotton for 2012/13). With the recent strength in the nearby market, I would be 75% priced on 2012 cotton. The run up in prices was due for today’s correction and is healthy for the market. Strength in demand, mainly exports, could push prices higher although at this time there is no compelling reason for any substantial moves. I would target 85 cents to price remaining cotton.
New crop:
| Cotton |
Price(cents) |
Change |
| December |
79.70 |
+0.52 |
| Support |
78.67 |
+0.16 |
| Resistance |
80.37 |
+0.54 |
| Technical |
Strong Buy |
+ |
| 20 Day MA |
79.16 |
+0.23 |
| 50 Day MA |
78.04 |
+0.36 |
| 100 Day MA |
77.76 |
-0.03 |
New crop cotton in the low to mid 80 cent range should be considered for initial pricing opportunities.
Prices this week have been hovering around the 20-21 cent per pound equity mark on 2013 loan cotton.
Soybeans:
Nearby:
| Soybeans |
Price |
Change |
| March |
$14.41 |
+$0.11 ¾ |
| Support |
$14.06 |
-$0.06 |
| Resistance |
$14.54 |
+$0.07 |
| Technical |
Buy |
+ |
| 20 Day MA |
$14.10 |
+$0.04 |
| 50 Day MA |
$14.25 |
= |
| 100 Day MA |
$14.87 |
-$0.09 |
Weekly exports were above expectations with net sales at 36 million bushels (14.1 million bushels for 2012/13 and 21.9 million bushels for 2013/14). Strong sales during the week have also been reported. Sales are well above USDA’s pace, however, exports are expected to slow once South America’s crop is available.
New crop:
| Soybeans |
Price |
Change |
| November |
$13.03 |
+$0.10 ¾ |
| Support |
$12.84 |
+$0.08 |
| Resistance |
$13.18 |
+$0.15 |
| Technical |
Buy |
++ |
| 20 Day MA |
$12.93 |
+$0.01 |
| 50 Day MA |
$12.99 |
-$0.01 |
| 100 Day MA |
$13.21 |
-$0.02 |
I would be 5% priced on 2013 production, but watching closely. Consider targeting the $13- $13.25 range as an opportunity for pricing.
Wheat:
Nearby:
| Wheat |
Price |
Change |
| March |
$7.76 ½ |
-$0.14 ¾ |
| Support |
$7.57 |
-$0.16 |
| Resistance |
$7.91 |
-$0.12 |
| Technical |
Sell |
= |
| 20 Day MA |
$7.67 |
-$0.03 |
| 50 Day MA |
$8.12 |
-$0.10 |
| 100 Day MA |
$8.50 |
-$0.05 |
Weekly exports were above expectations at net sales of 23.8 million bushels (21 million bushels for 2012/13 and 2.8 million bushels for 2013/14). Some fund positioning during the week led to the price decline.
New Crop:
| Wheat |
Price |
Change |
| July |
$7.88 ½ |
-$0.16 |
| Support |
$7.71 |
-$0.16 |
| Resistance |
$8.02 |
-$0.13 |
| Technical |
Sell |
= |
| 20 Day MA |
$7.82 |
-$0.03 |
| 50 Day MA |
$8.22 |
-$0.08 |
| 100 Day MA |
$8.41 |
-$0.03 |
I am currently priced 10% on the 2013 crop and would consider targeting the $8.30 – $8.50 range for
pricing opportunities.
