Corn, soybeans, and wheat prices are up with cotton prices down for the shortened Thanksgiving trading week. The U.S. Dollar Index closed at 80.24, down 1.07 for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 13,010 up 422 points for the week. Crude Oil closed at 88.28 a barrel, up 1.30 a barrel for the week. Commodity prices with the exception of cotton responded well to strong export sales and a weaker dollar at the end of the week. Trading volume was thin due to the Thanksgiving Holiday.
Corn:
Nearby: March closed at $7.49 ¾ a bushel, up 18 ¾ cents a bushel for the week. Technical indicators have changed to a hold bias. Support is at $7.44 a bushel with resistance at $7.55 a bushel. Weekly exports were much above expectations with net sales of 37.7 million bushels (30.3 million bushels of net sales for the 2012/13 marketing year and 7.4 million bushels of net sales for the 2013/14 marketing year).This was corn’s biggest single week of exports sales since May 2011. Ethanol production last week was 811,000 barrels per day, down 13,000 barrels from the previous week. Ethanol stocks were up a million barrels to 18.9 million barrels. I would be priced out of 2012 corn at this time. However, for producers with corn in storage I would not store un-priced or without a floor price in place. A March $7.50 Put costs 33 cents and would set a $7.17 futures floor.
New crop: September contract closed at $6.46 a bushel, up 17 ½ cents a bushel for the week. Technical indicators have changed to a sell bias. Support is at $6.43 a bushel with resistance at $6.50 a bushel. I would have 10% of 2013 production priced.
Cotton:
Nearby: March closed at 71.43 cents per pound, down 1.21 cents since last week. Support is at 70.10 cents with resistance at 73.80 cents per pound. Technical indicators have a sell bias. The Adjusted World Price for November 23 – November 29 is 61.03 cents per pound, up 1.39 cents. Keep in contact with your cotton buyer for current quotes on loan equities and pricing alternatives. All cotton weekly export net sales were 626,600 bales (397,800 bales of Upland cotton net sales for 2012/13; net sales of 195,400 bales of Upland cotton for 2013/14 and net sales of 33,400 bales of Pima cotton for 2012/13. Cotton harvested was 84% compared to 75% last week, 85% last year and the five year average of 77%. China’s manufacturing index was reported up indicating economic growth which should be positive for the cotton market. I would be 25% – 50% priced on cotton. Look for any rallies as opportunities to add to pricing.
New crop: December 2013 cotton closed at 75.45 cents per pound, down 1.33 cents for the week. Support is at 74.55 cents with resistance at 77.15 cents per pound. Technical indicators have a sell bias.
Soybeans:
Nearby: The January contract closed at $14.18 ¾ a bushel, up 35 ½ cents a bushel since last Friday. Technical indicators have a strong sell bias. Support is at $14.07 a bushel with resistance at $14.32 a bushel. Weekly exports were within the range of expectations at net sales of 20 million bushels for 2012/13. I am currently priced out of 2012 production. There does not appear to be any advantage to storing other than price speculation. That may be better served by selling soybeans and buying an out of the money March or May call option. A $14.60 March Call would cost 35 cents. I would not store un-priced without setting a floor price. A March $14.00 Put would cost 54 cents and set a $13.46 futures floor. This option expires February 22, 2013.
New crop: November 2013 soybeans closed today at $12.84 ¾ a bushel, up 22 ¼ cents a bushel since last week. Technical indicators have a strong sell bias. Support is at $12.71 a bushel with resistance at $13.05 a bushel. Watch for 2013 opportunities. I would be 5% priced on 2013 production.
Wheat:
Nearby: March futures contract closed at $8.61 ½ a bushel, up 7 ¾ cents for the week. Technical indicators have a strong sell bias. Support is at $8.52 a bushel with resistance at $8.71 a bushel.
New Crop: July 2013 wheat closed at $8.54 ¼ a bushel, up 8 ½ cents since last week. Technical indicators have changed to a hold bias. Support is at $8.49 a bushel with resistance at $8.60 a bushel. Winter wheat emergence is reported at 84% compared to 79% last week, 86% last year and the five year average of 86%. Wheat crop condition ratings were reported with good to excellent at 34% compared to 36% last week, and 50% last year. Poor to very poor were 24% compared to 22% last week, and 16% last year. I am currently priced 10% on the 2013 crop and would put serious consideration to pricing more as the wheat crop develops.
