UT Extension Commodity Market Update

Author: Danny Morris, Ext Area Specialist - Farm Management Comments Off on UT Extension Commodity Market Update

Corn: September futures were down $0.03 today. For the week, corn has declined $0.13. The decline was primarily caused by the enactment of a 25% tariff on $50 billion worth of Chinese imports. Going forward, weather should dictate market prices as the crop year progresses. Planting progress for continues to march forward with 92% of the crop having been planted as of 5/27/2018 with 72% having already emerged. The current crop rating is 79% good-to-excellent. Locally, new crop basis for corn averaged -$0.08 as of today’s market close.

West Tennessee Grain Bids can be viewed here: West Tennessee Grain Bids 6-1-2018

Soybeans: November futures were up $0.03 today. For the week, November soybeans futures traded $0.10 lower. The soybean market was hit harder by the tariff news since China is the largest importer of U.S. soybeans. Much like corn, we will soon begin to shift into a weather market and any trade disruptions, like tariffs, will exacerbate any swings in prices. Planting progress for soybeans is increasing week over week with 77% of the crop being planted as of 5/27/2018 with 47% of the crop has emerged. The USDA did not report a crop condition rating for soybeans this week. Locally, new crop basis for soybean averaged -$0.17 as of today’s market close.

Wheat: July wheat futures were $0.03 lower today and $0.07 lower for the week. Like the other grains, wheat futures have declined due to trade wars with the U.S. and China. We need to keep in mind that we have not lost the entire rally that wheat market has experienced over the last 90 days, which was a result of dry weather in the Southern Plains. According to the USDA, 73% of the winter wheat crop has already headed out. Of that crop, only 38% is rated good-to-excellent. The condition of the nation’s wheat crop has been the primary driver behind our recent rally in wheat futures.

Cotton: Cotton planting progress is in line with the 5-year average according to the USDA. Cotton prices have rallied in the past week due to strong buying and weather concerns in West Texas. The rally has not hindered cotton buying just yet, but some fear another 2010-2011 rally that killed cotton demand. For producers, this has resulted in equities ranging between $0.32 and $0.34. The most recent crop progress report showed 62% of the nation’s cotton crop planted with only 51% of the cotton crop in Texas planted. As we enter the growing season, the condition of the Texas cotton crop and textile mill demand for cotton will largely impact domestic prices.

Take Home Message: Producers should be mindful of their overall planted acres and expected yields when considering additional sales. We are about to enter into a weather market and selling opportunities could very well present themselves. Producers should be mindful of their production costs to be sure to price sales at profitable price levels. If you need assistance in adopting farm planning tools to aid in this, contact your local UT Extension Farm Management Specialist for assistance.

 

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