Recent Updates

Supply and Demand Estimates and Profitability Outlook

This link  Supply & Demand Estimates & Profitability Outlook is a summary of the USDA’s November 8th, 2018 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Domestic balance sheets for corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat are displayed along with price reaction in futures markets for each commodity on the day of the report release. Additionally, supply and demand estimates for key importing and exporting countries are provided for the current month along with change in estimates from the previous report. The Profitability Outlook section contains estimated returns per acre for 2019 for each commodity based  on 2018 Tennessee state average/trend yields and current price offerings (note: cotton prices include a seed and hauling rebate). Variable expenses are based on the University of Tennessee Extension 2018 Row Crop Budgets. Prices are updated monthly; expenses are updated as warranted during the year and may be different than the expenses contained in the 2018 Row Crop Budgets. This section provides an estimation of the current relative profitability amongst major row crops in Tennessee.
The report is prepared monthly by Dr. Aaron Smith and Chuck Danehower.
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What’s Your Type? Understanding the soybean cyst nematode HG Type test and why resistant varieties need to be rotated

Once you’ve sample your field, had it tested, and you have soybean cyst nematode (SCN), you’ll want to consider SCN-resistant varieties, but there are certain populations of SCN that can reproduce on certain SCN-resistant varieties so how do you know what resistant variety is best for your field – you find out the HG Type of your population – a costly test that UT is offering for free this year to TN farmers. Continue reading

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Crop Production – Tennessee

Released: November 8, 2018

Record Tennessee Corn Yield Projected

Corn production in Tennessee is forecast at 119 million bushels, down 1 percent from the October forecast and down 2 percent from the previous crop. Yield was estimated at a record 173.0 bushels per acre, down 1.0 bushels from last month and up 2.0 bushels from the 2017 level. Acres for harvest as grain were estimated at 685,000 acres, down 25,000 acres from 2017. The U.S. corn production is forecast at 14.6 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the October forecast and up slightly from 2017. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average 178.9 bushels per acre, down 1.8 bushels from last month and up 2.3 bushels from 2017. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 81.8 million acres, unchanged from the October forecast and down 1 percent from 2017. Continue reading at NovCrop18_TN.


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Tennessee Weekly Crop & Weather Report

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Mid-week rains once again put a halt to field activities, but not before some harvest of field crops occurred. Despite mostly good yields, soybean and cotton producers reported quality issues due to wet conditions. Winter wheat planting continued as the weather allowed. As cooler temperatures approach, livestock producers were reporting adequate hay supplies. There were 3.5 days suitable for fieldwork. Topsoil moisture rated 1 percent short, 58 percent adequate, and 41 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture rated 2 percent short, 68 percent adequate, and 30 percent surplus. Continue reading at TN_11_05_18.  The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-11-05-2018.

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Tennessee Market Highlights

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Corn, cotton, and soybeans were up; and wheat was mixed for the week.

On Thursday, positive comments from President Trump regarding trade negotiations with China sparked a 30 cent rally in soybean futures, ending a three week slide in soybean futures that saw January futures prices decline from $9.00 to below $8.50. While the market reacted positively, there is still a long way to go before a long term resolution with the Chinese is likely. Moving forward volatility is likely to remain in soybean markets as positive/negative trade news is released. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.

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2018 Corn Grain Hybrid Tests in Tennessee

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As promised, our 2018 TN corn grain hybrid trial data has been finalized and is now available. Follow these links for the full pdf and all excel tables.  We are still working on getting our web-friendly, sortable, and searchable tables up on  I’ll post to the blog as soon as they are available, which should be sometime next week.

Due to persistent rain delaying harvest at some locations, our soybean variety trials data is likely still a week or two away, but will be posted as soon as possible!

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Crop Insurance & Soybean Damage

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This topic was discussed at our recent Generic Base/Seed Cotton meetings and with the soybean damage some producers have been seeing was worthy of being posted again on the blog.  In summary, use your grain elevator ticket production bushels to sign up for the Market Facilitation Program at FSA rather than production that has been adjusted for crop insurance. Please read the article for details. Chuck


For more information, contact the author at:
Dr. Aaron Smith


This year has been a challenging one for soybean producers across Tennessee. Trade disruptions and record national average yield has pushed cash prices well below $8.00 in many locations in Tennessee. Additionally, the extended wet weather in late September has impacted soybean quality. Damage is ranging from minor with small discounts to extensive damage with loads getting rejected at elevators and barge points.

Farmers experiencing any of the following should contact their crop insurance agent immediately and report the issue: 1) notice quality issues in standing soybeans, 2) have cut a portion of a field and had quality dockage at the elevator, 3) or had a load rejected. A crop insurance adjustor is supposed to visit the field(s) in question within 24 hours of filing a claim to determine the extent of the damage and the steps forward.

Quality issues will be difficult to overcome when marketing the crop. For example, damage discounts to cash prices can be $1 to $1.50 for 5 to 9 percent damage, resulting in cash soybean prices well below $7.00 per bushel. Continue reading at Soybean Damage.

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