Corn:

Nearby: July closed at $6.35 ½ a bushel, up 54 ½ cents a bushel for the week. Technical indicators have changed to a buy bias. Support is at $6.12 a bushel with resistance at $6.32 a bushel. Weekly exports were just below the range of expectations at 34.1 million bushels (13.4 million bushels for the 2011/12 marketing year and 20.7 million bushels for the 2012/13 marketing year). For once, corn followed wheat in price movement as wheat led the way up this week from weather concerns.

Current Crop: September closed at $5.46 ½ a bushel, up 35 ¼ cents a bushel since last Friday. Technical indicators have changed to a sell bias. Support is at $5.30 a bushel with resistance at $5.45 a bushel.  Corn planted as of May 13 was 87% nationwide as compared to 71% last week, 56% last year and the five year average of 66%. Corn emergence is 56% compared to 32% last week, 16% last year and the five year average of 28%. I am currently priced at 50% and will look closely at adding to it if prices continue to rally. From a price risk management standpoint, a December $5.40 Put would cost 45 cents and set a $4.95 futures floor.  

Cotton:

Nearby: July closed at 77.99 cents per pound, down 0.98 cents since last week. Support is at 75.88 cents per pound with resistance at 79.18 cents per pound. Technical indicators have a strong sell bias. The Adjusted World Price for May 18– May 24 is 66.36 cents per pound, down 7.38 cents. All cotton weekly export sales were 258,700 bales (178,600 bales of upland cotton for 2011/12; sales of 78,700 bales of upland cotton for 2012/13; and sales of 1,400 bales of Pima cotton for 2011/12. Stronger than projected exports could lead prices higher, but won’t fully be known until the end of the marketing year July 31 as cancellations could be possible until then.  I am currently at 80% priced for 2011 production and would be willing to hold the remainder through the end of May and sell on a strong rally.

Current Crop:  December cotton closed at 75.21 cents per pound, down 1.13 cents for the week. Support is at 73.36 cents per pound with resistance at 76.48 cents per pound.  Technical indicators have a strong sell bias. Keep in contact with your cotton buyer for current quotes on loan equities and pricing alternatives. Cotton planting is pegged at 48% compared to 36% last week, 38% last year and the five year average of 39%. I am still holding out for prices to rally before pricing the crop. With projected record world old and new crop stocks, a change in China’s or possibly India’s policies would have to happen for a strong rally. World acres are expected down and weather concerns could also spark a rally. Certainly, a rebound in the U.S. or world economy would benefit the cotton market, but is not likely at the moment. Unless some of these alternatives break loose, prices will probably trade in a 70 – 90 cent range.  A move to the upside would need to be rewarded with sales.

Soybeans:

Nearby: The July contract closed at $14.05 a bushel, down 1 cent a bushel since last Friday. Technical indicators have a sell bias. Support is at $13.82 a bushel with resistance at $14.50 a bushel. Weekly exports were below expectations at 24.7 million bushels (22.6 million bushels for the 2011/12 marketing year and sales of 2.1 million bushels for 2012/13). USDA announced Thursday that China had purchased 17.6 million bushels of old crop soybeans, the 9^th largest daily soybean sale. This will be reflected in next week’s export report and is a strong indication that the U.S. is picking up sales normally sourced out of South America. Ending stocks could continue to tighten in future USDA Supply & Demand reports.

Current Crop: November soybeans closed today at $12.88 a bushel, down 33 ¼ cents since last week. Technical indicators have a sell bias. Support is at $12.68 a bushel with resistance at $13.27 a bushel. Soybean planting has progressed to 46% compared to 24% last week, 17% last year and the five year average of 24%. Soybean emergence is 16% compared to 7% last week, 3% last year and the five year average of 5%. The growing season is off to a good start with the anticipation that an earlier wheat harvest will see an above average acreage number of double crop soybeans. Even then, some analysts think those acres will be needed to keep up with demand.  I am currently 50% priced overall. From a price risk management standpoint, a $13.00 Put option would cost 85 cents and set a $12.15 futures floor.

Wheat:

Current crop:  July futures contract closed at $6.95 ¼ a bushel, up 98 ¼ cents a bushel since Friday. Technical indicators have changed to a strong buy bias. Support is at $6.36 a bushel with resistance at $7.26 a bushel. Weekly exports were above expectations at 26.1 million bushels (11.8 million bushels for 2011/12 and 14.3 million bushels for 2012/13). Overall, 72% of the winter wheat crop has headed compared to 63% last week, 50% last year and the five year average of 46%. Winter wheat conditions as of May 13 were 60% good to excellent compared to 63% last week, and 32% last year. Poor to very poor conditions are estimated at 14% compared to 12% last week and 44% last year. Wheat has been the darling of the market this week with concerns that dry weather will impact yields in the U.S. as well as the Black Seas regions. Although an early harvest is upon us or will start very soon, I would reward this week’s rally with big sales.  I would increase pricing to the 50% – 70% of anticipated production. There still is quite a bit of wheat in the U.S. and world. Producers, who feel strongly that prices will continue in a weather rally, may want to set a floor under their wheat with a put option. A $7.00 Put option would cost 37 cents and set a $6.63 futures floor. This option expires on June 22.

Deferred: December wheat closed at $7.20 a bushel, up 84 ½ cents since last week. Technical indicators have changed to a strong buy bias. Support is at $6.76 a bushel with resistance at $7.01 a bushel.  Spring wheat planted is at 94% compared to 84% last week, 33% last year and the five year average of 64%. Spring wheat emergence is 68% compared to 47% last week, 10% last year and the five year average of 32%.

Beet armyworm moth catches are not “impressive” but continue to be well above average for this time of year.  This may be an early sign of potential problems later in the season, but fortunately, the Bt cotton traits provide a substantial amount of protection.

Moth Trapping Data

These efforts are partially supported by state Cotton Incorporated funding, and thanks to those County Agents who are running many of the corn borer traps.

Clearly, we are dealing with adult migration that is overwhelming the insecticide seed treatments in many situations.  Thrips must feed to be exposed to these systemic insecticides, and continual migration can lead to injury even if they are killing adults.  It will be harder deciding if subsequent sprays are necessary as the seedlings begin to grow.  Plants will tolerate more thrips as plants get larger, and remember that you may see wrinkled leaves even after application because you can’t reverse damage to tiny, developing leaves that occurred before treatment.  There is virtually no data suggesting a third, foliar thrips application will improve yields on cotton having an insecticide seed treatment.

In cotton, the current debate is whether Radiant SC is needed, or whether we can stay with our standards (Orthene/Acephate, Bidrin or Dimethoate).  Refer to last week’s article for more detail.  Radiant is the product of choice if you are dealing with western flower thrips.  Use an adjuvant with Radiant!  Most the adult thrips that I’ve observed are dark colored, almost black, indicating they are tobacco thrips, in which case all the above insecticides will work well at typical use rates.  Don’t expect more than a few days of residual control with these treatments, but you will see downstream benefits by reducing populations of immature thrips.  The immature stages of all thrips are light colored, but so are the adults of several other species including onion thrips, eastern flower thrips and western flower thrips.  My observations indicate that tobacco thrips are the predominant species present, but this may vary across the state.

So how do you know if you are dealing with western flower thrips?  Because immature thrips are nearly impossible to tell apart, you must rely on adult ID and some detective work.  You will need a good hand lens.

• Adult tobacco thrips will be nearly black (see adult pictured above).  Adult western flower thrips will be light colored … sometimes described as having an orangish tint.  Look for wings to confirm you are looking at the adult stage.
• The presence of immatures, lacking wings, on cotyledon or 1-leaf cotton is a sign of western flower thrips because this species is not well controlled by insecticide seed treatments.  Cruiser will typically look a little better than Gaucho if western flower thrips are the predominant species.
• The presence of immatures within a few days following an application of Acephate, Bidrin or Dimethoate is also a sign of western flower thrips.  However, finding adults within a few days after an application is not uncommon if there is a large migration occuring, and thus, not necessarily a sign of western flower thrips.

Radiant, which is more expensive, does not seem necessary based on what I’m seeing and reports from the field.  However, there may be an advantage to using Radiant for follow-up applications if thrips pressure continues: 1) it is relatively soft on beneficial insects and less likely to flare secondary pests compared with multiple applications of other insecticides, and 2) thrips surviving a first application are more likely to be western flower thrips because Acephate, Bidrin and Dimethoate do not work especially well on this species.

What about soybean?  Soybeans are not nearly as susceptible to thrips as cotton, which is good because populations are also typically higher on soybean.  Do not use cotton thresholds!  Treatment is only occasionally needed in soybean (and very unlikley if an insecticide seed treatment was used).  Exceptions prove the rule, and there are examples where foliar insecticides or seed treatments have improved yields when thrips were the only obvious pest present.  I am not morally opposed, but I would only treat soybean for thrips when plants are small (prior to the first trifoliate), plants are growing poorly, and thrips are very common.

Leaf cupping, as seen with cotton, is not a typical response to thrips injury in soybean unless populations are extremely high.  Indeed, leaf cupping in soybean often indicates herbicide injury (e.g., dicamba).

False chinch bugs are a “true bug” that feed on plant juices with a beak.  They do not chew holes in leaves; they just suck plant dry.  Serious infestations involve mostly immature bugs, and thus, they will persist until the bugs “cycle out”.  Infestations are often in hot spots and spread outward, moving from plant to plant.  Insecticide seed treatments may help with light infestations, but they are not good enough.  There are no formal treatment thresholds.  Treatment is suggested if plants are being killed.  Spot treatments are possible which can save money because these insects are not easy to control. 

Immature and Adult False Chinch Bug

A standard spray recommendation is a full rate of Brigade, Fanfare, Sniper, Discipline or another bifenthrin product (6 oz) plus 0.5 – 0.75 lb of acephate/Orthene per acre.  I’ve also had success by substituting 12-16 oz of Lorsban 4E instead of the acephate, and thus, a premix like Cobalt Advanced at 24 – 32 oz per acre would be worth considering.  ULV malathion at 16 oz/acre may be the best treatment but requires some set-up time … and time is often critical.  Bidrin is NOT an option because full rates are required, and these rates are NOT allowed in prebloom cotton.  Things can happen fast with false chinch bugs, so act quickly!  The good news is the battle with these critters usually doesn’t last too long.

WEEKEND SHOWERS WELCOMED BY FARMERS

Showers and thunderstorms provided some needed relief this weekend, but it has been so dry recently that all regions of the state continue to need a general soaking rain. Crops continue to develop at rapid rate well ahead of normal. Corn planting is complete, all emerged and in mostly good condition. Cotton and soybean planting and tobacco transplanting were the main farm activities last week. Fertilizing, spraying post-emergence herbicides and hay harvest were also major farm activities. The wheat crop is ripening and farmers expect to begin harvest within the next two weeks. Strawberry harvest is on-going. Pastures are in fair-to-good condition.

There were 5.5 days suitable for fieldwork across the state. Topsoil moisture levels were rated 12 percent very short, 30 percent short, 56 percent adequate and 2 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture levels were rated 10 percent very short, 31 percent short, 58 percent adequate and 1 percent surplus. Temperatures across the state averaged near to slightly above normal. Rainfall amounts averaged above normal in the middle region and below normal across the remainder of the state.

County Agent Comments

 “Corn planting is done. Need a good rain. Soybean planting has begun at a moderate pace. Cotton planting also at moderate pace with more to come. Wheat changing color rapidly with dry weather. We probably see some trying to harvest some in about two weeks. Producers busy catching up on needed spraying from pre-emergence applications not working as well as needed due to lack of rainfall for activation.” Tim Campbell, Dyer County

“Top soil moisture is gone and planting has ceased.” Greg Allen, Lake County

“Lauderdale County got a much need rain last week and could use a slow soaker this week. Farmers continue to have good planting weather for Soybeans and Cotton. Corn planting for the county is complete and several producers are finished planting beans, as well. Cotton planting is well underway. Pastures overall are in good condition with a few areas becoming dry. Farmers are cutting hay this week.” J.C. Dupree, Lauderdale County

“A general rain (1/2-1″) across the county was very welcome. Winds have made herbicide applications difficult.”  Richard Buntin, Crockett County

“Producers have made great strides in planting soybeans with little to no precipitation delays. Soil moisture is becoming a limiting factor for both soybean seeding and established corn crops. Producers have been busy applying post-emerge weed control herbicides in corn, side-dressing nitrogen in corn and planting soybeans.” Jeff Lannom, Weakley County

“Some spotty showers but not enough to help with drought type conditions that are becoming more prevalent. Some folks are saying this is the driest early May they have seen. Soil crust is preventing no-till drilling.” Ruth Correll, Wilson County

“Soybean planting has been halted due to dry conditions.” Steve Harris, Coffee County

“With the exception of the far western portion of the County it was another dry week. Isolated thunderstorms on Saturday (05/05) and Sunday (05/06) produced from 1.0 to 2.0 inches of rain in the far western portion of the county giving much relief to crop and planting progress. Showers this past weekend (05/12-13) produced general rain producing from 0.5 to nearly one inch in isolated areas. Despite dry conditions the corn crop is holding on and making slow progress. The wheat crop continues to rapidly ripen, Cotton and soybean planting has slowed and emergence has been sporadic. Pastures need water.” Ed Burns, Franklin County

“Another dry week. Planting has stopped. Farmers reporting 50% to 30% hay yield compared to last spring. Fertilizing, spraying and hay harvest major activities for week. Need rain desperately.” Dale Beaty, Warren County

“Rain showers early and late in the week brought welcome moisture, more is needed. Strawberry crop still looks good.”  John Wilson, Blount County

 Two 3/10 inch showers this week has helped. Most corn planting is complete. Wheat is beginning to yellow. Corn looks better. Rain forecasts have hindered hay cutting/baling.” John Goddard, Loudon County

The University of Tennessee Weed Tour will be on Thursday, June 21 at the West Tennessee Research & Education Center in Jackson, TN.  Registration will start at 8:30 A.M. and the tour will begin at 9:00 A.M..  The tour will culminate with lunch at 12:00 with lunch in room A in the main building.

The tour will cover 60 weed management research tests in corn, soybean and cotton.  Most of the research shown will be on management of glyphosate resistant horseweed and Palmer amaranth.  Management of these weeds in Liberty as well as glyphosate based systems in cotton and soybeans will be highlighted. The new herbicide pyroxasulfone which will be sold under the trade name Zidua and in a tankmix with Valor under the trade name Fierce will also be on display. As usual, a plot plan book will be available.  UT personnel will be available for consultation and discussion of issues and product performance.

Hope to see you there,

Larry

Regrowth of flowering Palmer amaranth in emerged cotton after 40 oz Gramoxone + 32 oz Caparol

Many of these fields that were in Liberty-tolerant cotton were sprayed last week with Liberty to try to take out this regrowth. In most cases these follow up Liberty applications look to be successful.  However, please keep an eye on fields where the Liberty was applied more than 10 days after the Gramoxone as the Palmer may grow back and will need to be re-sprayed.  I would expect a sequential application of Liberty applied about 7 days apart should take out this regrowth.  In Roundup Ready cotton some have tried to overspray with Cotoran + MSMA with poor results.  Depending upon the Palmer density, a chopping crew or replant may be the best options for these fields. 

There has been a wide set of results to the pre plant and pre emergence applied herbicides in cotton.  This is mostly dictated by whether there was rainfall and the timing of this rainfall around the establishing cotton stand.  We still have significant cotton acres that have gotten very little rainfall.  The pre applied herbicides in these cases were not activated and post applications of Liberty are needed fast in fields of Liberty-tolerant cotton. In a few other areas, heavy rainfall fell and activated the herbicide as the cotton was emerging causing loss of cotton stand.

I have gotten calls about either the pre plant or pre applied herbicide as a major cause for poor cotton stands.  Notably different from last spring, no one herbicide seems to be the problem.  I have gotten calls about both Caparol and Cotoran in various fields causing some injury to cotton stands.  In other cases Reflex applied 21 to 14 days pre plant seemed to be involved in some cotton injury and in at least one case Valor applied 32 days before planting on dry soil was apparently activated with rain shortly after cotton planting and caused some damping off.   

In a few of cases, what was first thought to be damping off primarily due to the herbicide upon further inspection was found to be due to false chinch bug. Regardless the reason for the poor cotton stands, they now have to be assessed for their viability. Chris posted a good blog on May 12 about assessing poor cotton stand establishment and tips on replanting.

Calendar Date

The recommended planting window for Tennessee is April 20-May 10.  Although boll weevil eradication, Bt cotton and early-maturing varieties may have extended the planting window, but planting after May 20 is beyond the optimum planting window for high yields.  A poor stand may be replanted on May 1 but will more likely be kept on May 20.  Regardless of the advances in technology, an early freeze can be devastating to an immature crop (Table 2.).  Setting a two bale crop on the plant and harvesting that same cotton are two different things.

Evaluate the existing stand

Go to at least 10 places within the field and measure 1/1000^th of an acre.  For example, 13 feet, 9 inches is 1/1000^th of an acre for 38” rows.  For more row spacings see Table 3.  Once the desired length has been measured, count the number of plants.  Multiply the number of plants X 1000 to determine your plant population per acre.  Remember, go to several places and count not only the number of plants but also observe your stand for uniformity.  Take note of any skips longer than three feet in length.  Once this has been done, you then have to make the decision about plants that will live and those that will die.  If the plant has severe lesions on the stem and the plant is brittle, it will probably die.  If the roots are discolored but remain white or green when the brown tissue is scraped away, it will probably live.  Also, examine the plant terminal.  How do the new leaves look?  If there appears to be new growth emerging, the plant may live.  If the plant looks sick and you can’t make a decision, assume it will die.  However, cotton has a tremendous ability to survive and compensate during the growing season  if conditions improve.

How many plants are needed to make a crop?

Research has shown that cotton yields are similar when uniform populations of 20,000-70,000 plants per acre.  Uniform populations are critical and fields with large skips may need to be replanted.  What is the yield potential of the field?  Fertile, bottomland fields may have more compensation ability than eroded, droughty hills.  Remember when it’s getting late in the planting season yield potential is decreasing every day.  Uniform populations of 1-2 plants per foot (Table 4.) may not be ideal, but can be satisfactory provided the stand in UNIFORM.

What are your costs and what cultural practices have been used?

Sometimes replanting to cotton is not the best option.  However there are several factors that will determine this decision.  Has a residual herbicide been applied?  Some herbicides like Cotoran, Caparol or Diuron will essentially lock you into cotton due to labeled re-plant restrictions.  Is the land leased or under a gin contract?  Lease agreements are often crop specific and offer no alternatives.  Also, the type of rental agreement can play a role.  Extremely high rent may not allow a grain alternative.  Has fertilizer been applied?  Another factor that has become more important in recent years is the technology fee.  Before replanting, determine whether the additional technology fees will be rebated.  Another factor to consider if replanting to a different crop is that payments in the current farm bill are decoupled from production, thus payments are made regardless of crop planted.

Manage for earliness

Choose an early maturing variety with Bt technology if you decide to replant. If the stand was lost due to disease, use the full rate of fungicide when replanting and try to plant beside the old row.  The old furrow will contain disease inoculum and conditions for disease can be worse than the initial planting.   It is imperative to achieve a uniform stand with this planting because time is precious.  Fields that are not replanted will likely be stunted.  Fruit retention will be crucial, as time may not allow for late season blooms to mature.  In addition to early square retention, timely mepiquat chloride (Pix, Pentia, Mepichlor, Mepex, etc.) or Stance applications will help improve earliness.  If the stand is partially lost to hail, some of these plants with damaged terminals may lose apical dominance and become “crazy”.  This vegetative growth will need special care in order to achieve good fruiting and earliness.  In cases when the decision to replant is made, match the correct nitrogen rate to the realistic yield potential of the late planted crop.  Adding more nitrogen than necessary will delay maturity and increase the potential for losses from late season weather changes.

Other points to consider:

Weather forecast.  Does the 5-7 day forecast look promising?  Will conditions be conducive to plant growth or rapid germination and emergence?  Weather forecast can play a big role in replant decision making. If the decision to replant is made, destroy the old stand.  Plants from the first planting will mature differently and will compete with the replanted population.  Some control options are:

• 32-40 oz Gramoxone SL
• 32-40 oz Gramoxone SL + 32 oz Cotoran or Caparol
• 32-40 oz glufosinate (non-Liberty Link and non-WideStrike varieties only)
• 32-40 oz glufosinate + 32 oz Cotoran or Caparol
• 22-32 oz Glyphosate for Liberty Link or non-glyphosate cotton

Should the whole field or portions of the field be replanted?  Spot re-planting is a means of reducing seeding costs and time.  However, this often complicates crop management since several maturity ranges will be found within one field.  If spot planting, try to block out parts of the field so that management inputs can be directed to larger areas.  Also, choose varieties whose growth habits and maturity will closely follow the first planting.

Remember that cotton is very forgiving and you can make acceptable yields with a late planted crop. Once you make the decision to either replant or not you must believe that you have made the correct decision and do everything to ensure its success.  A common rule of thumb among most university Extension specialists is “If the decision to replant is difficult, then there are probably enough plants to keep the stand.”

Corn:

Nearby: July closed at $5.81 a bushel, down 39 ¼ cents a bushel for the week. Technical indicators have changed to a strong sell bias. Support is at $5.61 a bushel with resistance at $6.02 a bushel. Weekly exports were below expectations at 18.6 million bushels (8.8 million bushels for the 2011/12 marketing year and 9.8 million bushels for the 2012/13 marketing year). In somewhat of a surprise to the market, USDA raised ending stocks 50 million bushels to 851 million bushels rather than cutting stocks. Feed and residual use was reduced the 50 million bushels as it is assumed that feed wheat will take the place of corn in some rations. It is also assumed that an early harvested crop will alleviate any tightness in old crop stocks. It is also important to note that old crop basis has been usually strong, trying to entice producers to deliver corn and could be an indication that stocks are tighter than USDA estimates. We will have to watch as this plays out over the summer.

 Current Crop: September closed at $5.11 ¼ a bushel, down 24 cents a bushel since last Friday. Technical indicators have a strong sell bias. Support is at $4.97 a bushel with resistance at $5.24 a bushel.  Corn planted as of May 6 was 71% nationwide as compared to 53% last week, 32% last year and the five year average of 47%. Corn emergence is 32% compared to 15% last week, 6% last year and the five year average of 13%. USDA’s first look at the new crop came in for the most part as expected with the acreage from the March 30 Prospective Planting report and yields 2 bushels per acre higher at 166 bushels per acre based on above average planting progress. Ending stocks were projected at 1.881 billion bushels compared to the average pre-report guess of 1.704 billion bushels. The season average price is forecast to range from $4.20 to $5.00 a bushel. Considering the surprise in old crop stocks, the difference on the average in the new crop ending stocks was 84 million bushels higher than thought. With a soybean corn ratio at 2.60 to 1 today and nitrogen prices trending higher, it is conceivable that some corn acres may switch to soybeans. Also, a 166 bushel per acre nationwide yield will require ideal growing conditions and may be then difficult to achieve considering some lower yielding acreage planted to corn outside the Corn Belt. On the flip side, USDA increased feed and residual use 900 million bushels from the 2011/12 marketing year and if supplies are reduced for whatever reason, that usage could also be cut. Weather and growing conditions from now until harvest will have the greatest influence on prices. During the week, I added 10% to forward pricing and am now at 50% priced overall. From a price risk management standpoint, a December $5.10 Put would cost 42 cents and set a $4.68 futures floor.   

Cotton:

Nearby: July closed at 78.97 cents per pound, down 9.02 cents since last week. Support is at 74.70 cents per pound with resistance at 83.90 cents per pound. Technical indicators have a strong sell bias. The Adjusted World Price for May 11– May 17 is 73.74 cents per pound, down 3.59 cents. All cotton weekly export sales were 202,500 bales (99,400 bales of upland cotton for 2011/12; sales of 94,200 bales of upland cotton for 2012/13; sales of 6,500 bales of Pima cotton for 2011/12 and sales of 2,400 bales of Pima cotton for 2012/13.  USDA made some slight adjustments with old crop acreage and yields but the end result was an unchanged ending stock number of 3.4 million bales. Global ending stocks were raised 810,000 bales to 66.88 million bales, a record. I am currently at 80% priced for 2011 production and would be willing to hold the remainder through the end of May and sell on a strong rally. Cotton prices look to be oversold and commodity fund liquidation could be putting pressure on prices.

Current Crop:  December cotton closed at 76.34 cents per pound, down 9.46 cents for the week. Support is at 71.95 cents per pound with resistance at 81.37 cents per pound.  Technical indicators have a strong sell bias. Keep in contact with your cotton buyer for current quotes on loan equities and pricing alternatives. Cotton planting is pegged at 36% compared to 26% last week, 24% last year and the five year average of 28%. USDA used the March 30 intentions acreage of 13.16 million acres, an abandonment of 20%, and yields of 777 pounds per acre nationwide in this latest report. The abandonment and yields are influenced by the drought in Texas. Domestic usage is increased 100,000 bales and exports increased 600,000 bales from the old crop year. Ending stocks were raised 1.5 million bales to 4.90 million bales. The more bearish numbers are on the global picture as ending stocks are forecast to increase 6.87 million bales to 73.75 million bales. China is expected to hold 38% of the world’s stock and their policies on cotton will most likely sway the market as well as the goings on in India. Actual planted cotton acreage in the U.S and abroad will most likely be lower than the current projection. Stronger demand will be needed to pull prices up.  I am still holding out for prices to rally before pricing the crop.

Soybeans:

Nearby: The July contract closed at $14.06 a bushel, down 72 ¼ cents a bushel since last Friday. Technical indicators have changed to a sell bias. Support is at $13.64 a bushel with resistance at $14.82 a bushel. Weekly exports were above expectations at 67.1 million bushels (17.1 million bushels for the 2011/12 marketing year and sales of 50 million bushels for 2012/13). USDA cut ending stocks 40 million bushels in the May 10 report to 210 million bushels, 11 million bushels lower than the average pre report guess. Crush was raised 15 million bushels and exports increased 25 million bushels. The stocks to use ratio was lowered to 6.2% from 8.2 % last month. World ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected to again decrease to 1.956 billion bushels, 84 million bushels less than the April estimate.

Current Crop: November soybeans closed today at $13.21 ¼ a bushel, down 45 ½ cents since last week. Technical indicators have changed to a sell bias. Support is at $12.87 a bushel with resistance at $13.83 a bushel. Soybean planting has progressed to 24% compared to 12% last week, 6% last year and the five year average of 11%. Soybean emergence is 7% compared to 2% last year and the five year average of 3%.  In the new crop year, increased demand more than offsets increased production as ending stocks are projected at 145 million bushels, a historically low stocks-to-use ratio of 4.4%.Based on the March 30 USDA planting intentions report, soybean planted acreage is projected at 73.9 million acres. Acreage will most likely be increased at some point in the growing season as it is believed that higher soybean prices have encouraged either additional double crop acres or a switch from other crops. Currently, supplies are projected at 3.430 billion bushels with usage at 3.285 billion bushels. The season average price is estimated to range from $12.00 to $14.00 a bushel. Global new crop stocks are projected to increase 177 million bushels to 2.134 billion bushels as South American production is expected to rebound from their drought reduced production of 2011/12 and offset increased consumption. I am currently 50% priced overall. From a price risk management standpoint, a $13.20 Put option would cost 72 cents and set a $12.48 futures floor. 

Wheat:

Current crop:  July futures contract closed at $5.97 a bushel, down 12 ½ cents a bushel since Friday. Technical indicators have a strong sell bias. Support is at $5.86 a bushel with resistance at $6.09 a bushel. Weekly exports were within expectations at 20.2 million bushels (8.1 million bushels for 2011/12 and 12.1 million bushels for 2012/13). Overall, 63% of the winter wheat crop has headed compared to 54% last week, 39% last year and the five year average of 34%. Winter wheat conditions as of May 6 were 63% good to excellent compared to 64% last week, and 33% last year. Poor to very poor conditions are estimated at 12% compared to 10% last week and 42% last year. Projections for 2011/12 marketing year which ends on May 31 for wheat are for ending stocks of 768 million bushels, 25 million bushels lower than last month and 13 million bushels lower than the average trade guess. Exports accounted for the change as they were raised 25 million bushels. The stocks to use ratio is estimated at 34.7%. World ending stocks are projected at 7.239 billion bushels, down 34 million bushels from April. USDA new crop projections estimate ending stocks at 735 million bushels compared to the average pre-report guess of 805 million bushels. Production and total supplies are both projected higher than the previous year with demand forecast to increase 8.3% from the 2011/12 marketing year. Stocks to use are expected to drop to 30.7% with a season average price of $5.50 to $6.70 a bushel. Global stocks are expected to decrease 327 million bushels to 6.912 billion bushels.  I am priced 20% on the current crop and would target any rallies to the $6.50 range as a point to price more. . With harvest right around the corner and wheat looking like it has reached a bottom, if price targets aren’t met I would consider selling the remainder at harvest or possibly storing some depending on the deferred contracts basis and cash flow needs.  A $6.00 Put option would cost 27 cents and set a $5.73 futures floor. This option expires on June 22. 

Deferred: December wheat closed at $6.35 ½ a bushel, down 12 ½ cents since last week. Technical indicators have a strong sell bias. Support is at $6.24 a bushel with resistance at $6.48 a bushel.  Spring wheat planted is at 84% compared to 74% last week, 19% last year and the five year average of 49%. Spring wheat emergence is 47% compared to 30% last week, 5% last year and the five year average of 17%.

A media release from Syngenta in 2011 indicates that Syngenta herbicides including Halex GT, Callisto, Callisto Xtra, and all Touchdown brands are safe to be tank-mixed with foliar fungicide applications of Quadris, Quilt, and Quilt Xcel ( http://www.syngentaebiz.com/dotnetebiz/imagelibrary/News%20Release%20FINAL%20(2).pdf ).  Beyond this though, we really do not have a lot of information on herbicide and fungicide tank-mixes.  In the past, there has been quite a bit of injury from herbicide/fungicide combinations, so it’s best to avoid these unless otherwise noted on the label or by the manufacturer.

Halex GT in combination with insecticides and some herbicides may cause severe crop injury and crop loss.  Halex GT may be applied with pyrethroid insecticides (Warrior, etc.).  However, here is a list of DO NOT’S for Halex GT:

1.  DO NOT apply Halex GT postemergence to corn that was treated with Counter (terburfos), Lorsban (chlorpyrifos), or other organophosphate containing soil insecticides.
2. DO NOT apply Halex GT foliar postemergence tank-mixed with any organophosphate or carbamate insecticide.
3. DO NOT apply a foliar organophosphate or carbamate insecticide POST within 7 days before or 7 days after an application of Halex GT.
4. DO NOT apply Halex GT with emulsifiable concentrate (EC) grass herbicides.
5. DO NOT apply Halex GT with suspension fertilizers or UAN as the carrier.

Capreno also has several limitations for certain combinations.  Here is a list of DO NOT’S for Capreno.

1. DO NOT apply Capreno with liquid fertilizers as the main carrier.
2. DO NOT apply Capreno in the SAME SEASON as organophosphate insecticides such as Lorsban (chlorpyrifos), Counter (terbufos), Thimet (phorate), or Dyfonate (fonophos).
3. DO NOT apply foliar organophosphate or carbamate insecticides within 7 days of a Capreno application.
4. There are no restrictions with Capreno applications and the following soil applied insecticides:  Aztec, Regent, and Force (tefluthrin).

In 2011, we conducted a small study to evaluate combinations of POST corn herbicides with insecticides.  The results from this study indicate that significant crop injury and ultimately yield loss may result from some herbicide/insecticide combinations.  As expected, Capreno applied at the 4-leaf stage in combination with a foliar Lorsban application alone (or additionally with Lorsban in-furrow at planting) caused significant crop injury 10 days after application (46% & 63%).   Yield with these treatments (69 & 85 bu/A) was greatly reduced from the highest yielding treatment (166 bu/A).  Insecticide combinations with Halex GT appeared to cause minimal crop injury (less than 10%).  Although once again, the labels do state that Capreno and Halex GT should not be applied in the same season with Lorsban products.  Brigade (bifenthrin) applied foliar with Halex GT or Capreno appeared to be a much safer option with no associated yield loss and crop injury of less than 5%.

This is not an exhaustive list of every restriction.  As always, if you are unsure, complete a tank-mix compatibility test before making an application and read your herbicides labels.

Anyone having non-Bt corn  should strongly consider having 2 or 3 SWCB pheromone traps on their farm.  They are an excellent predictor of potential problems.  I’ve previously posted information about the traps, trapping guidelines, and interpreting the results.  We buy traps and pheromone at Great Lakes IPM (see below).

Universal Moth Traps and Hercon Lure Tapes
Cat. Nos.  IPS-G004 and HC-100356, respectively
http://greatlakesipm.com/
989-268-5693 or 800-235-0285

Some differences have occurred due to rounding

In today’s report, USDA updated the old crop stocks and put forth their first official estimate of the new crop year. This report is being perceived as bearish as old crop stocks were raised rather than cut and new crop stocks are projected to be more than double old crop stocks .For new crop stocks, this could be the largest estimate of the year as the fallout from corn prices trending lower, soybean prices stable to trending higher, and higher nitrogen prices could cause a few corn acres to shift to soybeans. A record yield is projected and to be achieved will depend on ideal conditions. Lower corn prices may also stimulate additional demand. Looking at the numbers, old crop corn ending stocks were raised 50 million bushels to 851 million bushels as feed and residual use is reduced 50 million bushels. It is assumed that attractive prices for wheat compared to corn will encourage summer wheat feeding. Also the start of an early crop year will produce new crop stocks that will be available during the old crop marketing year. The stocks to use ratio is increased from 6.3% to 6.7%. The trade was expecting ending stocks of 758 million bushels. The season average price is projected to range from $5.95 to $6.25 a bushel, narrowed 5 cents on the lower end and 15 cents on the top side. Global old crop corn stocks increased 69 million bushels from last month to 4.9 billion bushels. New crop ending stocks for the 2012/13 marketing year are projected at 1.881 billion bushels, 177 million bushels higher than the average trade guess. The new crop numbers really were 84 million bushels higher than expected if the adjustment for old crop stocks is taken out. Planted acreage at 95.9 million acres is based on the March 30 USDA Prospective Plantings report and the record estimated yield of 166 bushels per acre is based on planting progress and the outlook for good growing conditions. The supply with record production is projected 2.150 billion bushels higher than last year while demand is projected at 1.120 billion bushels higher. The new crop season average price is projected to range from $4.20 to $5.00 a bushel. Global stocks are projected at 5.997 billion bushels, 976 million bushels higher than the old crop year.  September corn closed down 13 ½ cents at $5.13 ½ a bushel. Technical analysis has a strong sell bias with support at $5.02 and resistance at $5.35. In weekly comments, I added 10% priced during the week to 50% over all. Over the past 31 years the average difference between the May projection for U.S. ending stocks and the final estimate has been 55 million bushels with 14 years below the final estimate and 17 years above.  The next USDA Supply & Demand report will be released June 12, 2012. 

Supply and Demand Projections and Historical Data Source: USDA

Cotton

USDA’s projections for old and new crop would have to be considered bearish as ending stocks are unchanged for old crop and project increased stocks for both the U.S. and the world in new crop. Old crop production was increased slightly but still resulted in unchanged ending stocks of 3.4 million bales. The projected price range for 2011/12 was also unchanged at 91 cents per pound. The stocks to use ratio is unchanged at 23%. World projections for old crop ending stocks were projected 810,000 bales higher at 66.88 million bales. Projections for new crop cotton start with the March 30 USDA planting intentions acreage of 13.16 million acres, an abandonment of 20%, and a yield of 777 pounds per acre. These numbers reflect the influence of the continued drought in the Texas High Plains area. Production is projected to increase 1.43 million bales from the previous year with total supply 2.22 million bales higher at 20.41 million bales. Domestic use is increased 100,000 bales and exports increased 600,000 bales from the previous year. Ending stocks increase 1.5 million bales to 4.90 million bales. The season average price for new crop is projected to range from 65 to 85 cents per pound. The acreage estimates will most likely be the highest estimate for the year as many analysts are looking for actual acreage to come in at 12.7 -12.8 million acres as soybean prices have risen while cotton prices have declined. Demand and increased prices for the new crop year will be dependent on whether a sluggish economy in the U.S. and abroad can finally break loose from current levels. Global stocks are also slated to increase 6.87 million bales to 73.75 million bales, which would be another record stock. World production is expected to decrease 6.35 million bales but still is estimated to be 6.7 million bales above consumption. China is expected to hold 38% of the world’s stock and their policies on cotton will most likely sway the market. July futures closed limit down 4 cents at 81.82 cents per pound.  Keep in contact with your cotton buyer on current quotes. At this time, I am currently at 80% priced for 2011 production and will look to finish sales this month.  December cotton closed at 79.37 cents/pound, down the 4 cent limit. Technical analysis has a strong sell with support at 76.45 and resistance at 85.21. Today’s selloff appears overdone and may be due to some funds forced liquidation. Actual planted cotton acreage will most likely be lower than the current projection. Stronger demand will be needed to pull prices up. Over the past 31 years the average difference between the May projection for U.S. ending stocks and the final estimate has been 1.7 million bales with 15 years below the final estimate and 16 years above. These numbers can and will change, but do reflect the best information and estimates at the time of the report. The next USDA Supply & Demand report will be released June 12, 2012.

Supply and Demand Projections and Historical Data Source: USDA

Soybeans

In a bullish USDA report, ending stocks for 2011/12 were lowered 40 million bushels to 210 million bushels compared to the average trade guess of 221 million bushels. Crush was increased 15 million bushels while exports were raised 25 million bushels. The season average price for 2011/12 was bumped up 10 cents to $12.35 a bushel. Stocks to use ratio was projected at 6.8%, down from 8.2% last month.  World ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected to again decrease to 1.956 billion bushels, 84 million bushels less than the April estimate.  In the new crop year, increased demand more than offsets increased production as ending stocks are projected at 145 million bushels, a historically low stocks-to-use ratio of 4.4%. Based on the March 30 USDA planting intentions report, soybean planted acreage is projected at 73.9 million acres. Acreage will most likely be increased at some point in the growing season as it is believed that higher soybean prices have encouraged either additional double crop acres or a switch from other crops. Currently, supplies are projected at 3.430 billion bushels with usage at 3.285 billion bushels. The season average price is estimated to range from $12.00 to $14.00 a bushel. Global new crop stocks are projected to increase 177 million bushels to 2.134 billion bushels as South American production is expected to rebound from their drought reduced production of 2011/12 and offset increased consumption. November soybeans closed at $13.59, up 25 ½ cents per bushel. Technical analysis has a buy bias with support at $13.16 and resistance at $13.89 a bushel. I am currently priced at 50% for the 2012 crop.  From a price risk management standpoint, a $13.60 Put would cost 80 cents and set a $12.80 futures floor. Over the past 31 years the average difference between the May projection for U.S. ending stocks and the final estimate has been 110 million bushels with 9 years below the final estimate and 22 years above. The next USDA Supply & Demand report will be released June 12, 2012.

Supply and Demand Projections and Historical Data Source: USDA

Wheat

USDA offered a friendly to neutral wheat supply and demand report today as ending stocks for both old and new crop wheat are slightly lower than the average trade guess. Projections for 2011/12 marketing year which ends on May 31 for wheat are for ending stocks of 768 million bushels, 25 million bushels lower than last month and 13 million bushels lower than the average trade guess. Exports accounted for the change as they were raised 25 million bushels. The stocks to use ratio is estimated at 34.7%. The estimated season average price was narrowed 5 cents to $7.25 a bushel. World ending stocks are projected at 7.239 billion bushels, down 34 million bushels from April. USDA new crop projections estimate ending stocks at 735 million bushels compared to the average pre-report guess of 805 million bushels. Production and total supplies are both projected higher than the previous year with demand forecast to increase 8.3% from the 2011/12 marketing year. Stocks to use are expected to drop to 30.7% with a season average price of $5.50 to $6.70 a bushel. Global stocks are expected to decrease 327 million bushels to 6.912 billion bushels. July wheat closed at $6.01 ¼ up 1 ¼ cents. Technical analysis shows a strong sell bias with support at $5.88 with resistance at $6.13 a bushel. In my weekly comments, I am currently priced 20% on the current crop and would target any rallies to the $6.50 range as a point to price more. With harvest right around the corner and wheat looking like it has reached a bottom, if price targets aren’t met I would consider selling the remainder at harvest or possibly storing some depending on the deferred contracts basis and cash flow needs. Over the past 31 years the average difference between the May projection for U.S. ending stocks and the final estimate has been 3.7 million bushels with 17 years below the final estimate and 14 years above. These numbers can and will change, but do reflect the best information and estimates at the time of the report. The next USDA Supply & Demand report will be released June 12, 2012.

Supply and Demand Projections and Historical Data Source: USDA