Corn: December corn futures ended the week one penny lower than where it began on Monday morning. This week has been light as far as trading news goes for the grains. Last week, the USDA released their latest estimate on the global supply of all commodities along with the projected demand for all commodities. Harvest is advancing across most of the Midwest. As we begin to get a better feel on the overall size of the corn crop, we can expect to see the market reflect the yield data into future prices. Basis for corn is starting to weaken as the new supplies from harvest are hitting the supply chain. Futures have been increasing since August. Continue reading
Corn: The latest WASDE report was released this week along with the Crop Production report. The USDA has decreased the national corn yield by 1 bushel per acre from 174.4 to 173.4. If the final yield does equate to this value, then this will be the largest corn crop on record. Despite the expectations of a very large corn crop, December corn futures have increased by $0.15 since the market’s open on Monday. In fact, corn closed at a three-month high, which is uncommon, especially during harvest. Local corn basis has continued to remain stable over the past week.
We have been blessed with another great harvest season and it appears we may be able to finish harvest with little rain. Here on the 5th day of Oct, I would guess the average cotton acre within the state has already received the first application of harvest aids and is very close to seeing a picker. Even so, several acres have not been defoliated. This has led many to call with concerns about the cooler temperatures in the forecast over the weekend and several have asked if it is simply time to defoliate based on calendar date. Continue reading
Corn: December corn futures have increased since the beginning of the week. This is a continuation of the upward trend we have seen in corn futures since the beginning of September. This is due in part to the realization that the USDA’s yield forecasts were a bit overzealous. That being said, we still do not know the total size of the U.S. corn crop just yet. We are still a ways off from knowing that. The USDA did indicate that the ending stocks as of 9/1/2016 were smaller than expected. Continue reading
Corn: Since the market’s open on Monday, December corn futures have increased by $0.18. Corn prices have rallied on the expectation that the USDA will be forced to cut back their national yield projections. USDA is scheduled to release their monthly report and the trade is anticipating that report will include news of a lower corn production forecast. USDA currently has the corn harvest at 15.15 billion bushels. However, Reuters took a survey of analysts that indicated that the average trade estimate for the corn crop is 15.027 billion bushels. Corn harvest is underway in Kentucky, Tennessee, and parts of Illinois. Continue reading
Corn: Corn futures have traded $0.02 lower since the market’s open on Monday morning. Informa has just released their private estimate of what the national corn crop yield will be. Their estimated national yield for corn is 174.8 bushels per acres. That is in line with the USDA August 12th estimate of a national yield of 175.1 bushels per acre. The USDA continues to rate the corn crop in a very favorable light with 75% being rated as good-to-excellent. They also reported that 92% of the crop at the dough stage with 60% having already reached dent. Informa’s estimate is likely the closest to USDA’s estimate that has been released by a private company. The market did not appear to react surprised by the figures, which could mean that the trade is beginning to anticipate a very large crop. Locally, corn basis has begun to improve slightly at some local elevators. Continue reading
Corn: Corn futures have traded $0.29 lower since the market’s open on Monday morning. Farm Journal has just released the results of the Pro Farmer 2016 Crop Tour. Their estimated national yield for corn is 170.2 bushels per acres. That is less than the USDA August 12th estimate of a national yield of 175.1 bushels per acre. Illinois was projected to have an average yield of 194 bushels per acre for the corn crop planted there. Currently, the USDA estimates the average yield for Illinois to be 200 bushels per acre. Continue reading
Corn: Corn futures have traded $0.13 higher since the market’s open on Monday morning. Corn futures have closed higher for six days straight. The USDA report from last week left room for the market to become more bearish with a projected national yield of 175.1 bushels per acre. However, after sifting through the report, it appeared that the trade was already trading the expectations of a high national yield. Some analysts are beginning to question the methods that USDA used to come up with their yield figures. Many are pointing to the fact that the estimate is based on a record ear size that excludes a kernel count.