All posts by Danny Morris, Ext Area Specialist - Farm Management

UT Extension Commodity Market Update

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Corn: Since the beginning of May, September corn futures have traded in a sideways pattern. The mid-day price of $4.14 for the September contract is only two cents higher than the closing price of $4.12, which occurred on May 1st. The sideways pattern can be attributed to a few things. We have experienced some delays in parts of the Midwest. However, as of May 20, we have already planted 80% of the crop, which is in line with the 5-year average. We have also yet to hit volatile stages of the growing season when weather dictates the market price direction. These factors combined with a not-so upsetting WASDE report this month has resulted in the market not swinging wildly in either direction. New crop corn basis is averaging -$0.09 as of today. Continue reading


UT Commodity Market Update – 5/4/2018

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Corn: Since the beginning of the year, the September futures contract has increased by $0.40. An interesting fact is that of this increase, $0.21 has occurred over the last two weeks. The below chart reflects the recent run-up in corn futures:

 

Looking at the above the chart, obviously, something is driving the market. This begs the question as to what is causing the uptick in prices. Most of the nation’s corn crop is planted in April and by mid-May. Continue reading


UT Commodity Market Update 3/16/2018

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Corn: Since Monday’s market open, May corn futures have declined by $0.05 while September futures have only decreased by $0.02. Corn futures hit a seven month high earlier this week before they began to decline. Corn exports have been excellent due to a lack of competition from South America. Last week’s export sales of 103 million bushels set a marketing year high for the 2017/2018 marketing year. Hopefully, farmers were proactive in marketing their crop and captured some profitable sales while corn futures were at these recent highs. Locally, new crop corn basis averaged -$0.12.

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UT Commodity Market Update 3/8/2018

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Corn: So far this week, corn futures have been on a steady climb. May corn futures have increased $0.08 while September corn futures increased $0.07. The increase can be attributed to the USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report that was released today. The USDA is projecting higher exports and increased domestic demand due to higher ethanol production. Export figures were increased by 175 million bushels to 2.225 billion bushels. The cause of the increase is due primarily due to U.S. corn being competitive in the export market, strong sales, and lower competition from Argentina. Continue reading


UT Commodity Market Update 2/19/2018

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Corn: Last week, March corn futures closed $0.03 cents higher while September corn futures closed $0.03 higher as well. The spike higher in soybean prices is continuing to pull the other grains along with it. However, in part, the latest USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) indicated that corn exports will continue to improve, which will cause a reduction in ending stocks. Continue reading


UT Commodity Market Update 2/2/2018

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Corn: March corn futures traded $0.04 higher for the week. September corn futures traded $0.04 for the week as well. The average local basis for new crop corn averaged -$0.13. The higher futures can be attributed to better than expected exports. Also, the size of the corn crop in Argentina is expected to be lower than previously thought. Abnormally dry growing conditions are causing analysts to think that the size of the overall crop will be reduced in USDA’s next report. The size of the Brazilian corn crop is also presumed to be reduced as well. Continue reading


UT Commodity Market Update

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Corn: Over the last three weeks, March corn futures have traded sideways. On January 1, 2018, March corn futures opened at $3.51 and closed today at $3.52. September corn futures have followed the exact same pattern. September 2018 futures opened at $3.75 on January 1 and closed at $3.76 as of today’s market close. The latest USDA estimate has ending stocks forecasted to be higher and demand to be slightly lower. The USDA is also projecting that global production for coarse grains, which includes corn, to be higher for 2017/18. The size of the South American crop will also have an impact on the upside potential of corn futures. Cash basis is averaging $0.05 while new crop basis is currently averaging -$0.15 as of market close. Continue reading


UT Commodity Market Update 11/17/2017

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Corn: For the week, December corn futures have traded sideways within a $0.08 price range. Farmer selling is reportedly slow this week and is partially evidenced by the increase in local basis. Corn harvest is continuing to progress at a steady pace. As of November 12, 83% of the national corn crop was harvested. In Tennessee, the USDA reported that 99% of all corn has been harvested. Continue reading