All posts by Chuck Danehower, Extension Area Specialist - Farm Management

Tennessee Market Highlights

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Corn, cotton, and wheat were down; and soybeans were mixed for the week.

This week the USDA released the November WASDE and Crop Production re-ports. Details of the WASDE report for corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat are available at: Supply & Demand Estimates and Profitability Outlook.

The Crop Production report estimated 2018 National (Tennessee) corn, soybean, and cotton yields at: 178.9 bu/acre; down 1.8 bu/acre (173 bu/acre; down 1 bu/acre), 52.1 bu/acre; down 1 bu/acre (48 bu/acre down 2 bu/acre), and 836 lb/acre; down 51 lb/acre (1,048 lb/acre; up 14 lb/acre).

For the week, markets moved mostly sideways to down. The yield revisions for corn, soybeans, and cotton, were viewed as positive for prices, however the markets were anticipating yield decreases so the price response was muted. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.


Supply and Demand Estimates and Profitability Outlook

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This link  Supply & Demand Estimates & Profitability Outlook is a summary of the USDA’s November 8th, 2018 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Domestic balance sheets for corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat are displayed along with price reaction in futures markets for each commodity on the day of the report release. Additionally, supply and demand estimates for key importing and exporting countries are provided for the current month along with change in estimates from the previous report. The Profitability Outlook section contains estimated returns per acre for 2019 for each commodity based  on 2018 Tennessee state average/trend yields and current price offerings (note: cotton prices include a seed and hauling rebate). Variable expenses are based on the University of Tennessee Extension 2018 Row Crop Budgets. Prices are updated monthly; expenses are updated as warranted during the year and may be different than the expenses contained in the 2018 Row Crop Budgets. This section provides an estimation of the current relative profitability amongst major row crops in Tennessee.
The report is prepared monthly by Dr. Aaron Smith and Chuck Danehower.

Crop Production – Tennessee

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Released: November 8, 2018

Record Tennessee Corn Yield Projected

Corn production in Tennessee is forecast at 119 million bushels, down 1 percent from the October forecast and down 2 percent from the previous crop. Yield was estimated at a record 173.0 bushels per acre, down 1.0 bushels from last month and up 2.0 bushels from the 2017 level. Acres for harvest as grain were estimated at 685,000 acres, down 25,000 acres from 2017. The U.S. corn production is forecast at 14.6 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the October forecast and up slightly from 2017. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average 178.9 bushels per acre, down 1.8 bushels from last month and up 2.3 bushels from 2017. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 81.8 million acres, unchanged from the October forecast and down 1 percent from 2017. Continue reading at NovCrop18_TN.

 


Tennessee Weekly Crop & Weather Report

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RAINS PUT FIELD WORK ON HOLD

Mid-week rains once again put a halt to field activities, but not before some harvest of field crops occurred. Despite mostly good yields, soybean and cotton producers reported quality issues due to wet conditions. Winter wheat planting continued as the weather allowed. As cooler temperatures approach, livestock producers were reporting adequate hay supplies. There were 3.5 days suitable for fieldwork. Topsoil moisture rated 1 percent short, 58 percent adequate, and 41 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture rated 2 percent short, 68 percent adequate, and 30 percent surplus. Continue reading at TN_11_05_18.  The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-11-05-2018.


Tennessee Market Highlights

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Corn, cotton, and soybeans were up; and wheat was mixed for the week.

On Thursday, positive comments from President Trump regarding trade negotiations with China sparked a 30 cent rally in soybean futures, ending a three week slide in soybean futures that saw January futures prices decline from $9.00 to below $8.50. While the market reacted positively, there is still a long way to go before a long term resolution with the Chinese is likely. Moving forward volatility is likely to remain in soybean markets as positive/negative trade news is released. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.


Crop Insurance & Soybean Damage

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This topic was discussed at our recent Generic Base/Seed Cotton meetings and with the soybean damage some producers have been seeing was worthy of being posted again on the blog.  In summary, use your grain elevator ticket production bushels to sign up for the Market Facilitation Program at FSA rather than production that has been adjusted for crop insurance. Please read the article for details. Chuck

 

For more information, contact the author at:
Dr. Aaron Smith 
aaron.smith@utk.edu

 

This year has been a challenging one for soybean producers across Tennessee. Trade disruptions and record national average yield has pushed cash prices well below $8.00 in many locations in Tennessee. Additionally, the extended wet weather in late September has impacted soybean quality. Damage is ranging from minor with small discounts to extensive damage with loads getting rejected at elevators and barge points.

Farmers experiencing any of the following should contact their crop insurance agent immediately and report the issue: 1) notice quality issues in standing soybeans, 2) have cut a portion of a field and had quality dockage at the elevator, 3) or had a load rejected. A crop insurance adjustor is supposed to visit the field(s) in question within 24 hours of filing a claim to determine the extent of the damage and the steps forward.

Quality issues will be difficult to overcome when marketing the crop. For example, damage discounts to cash prices can be $1 to $1.50 for 5 to 9 percent damage, resulting in cash soybean prices well below $7.00 per bushel. Continue reading at Soybean Damage.


Tennessee Weekly Crop & Weather Report

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FIELD ACTIVITIES RESUME

Drier conditions allowed farmers to resume harvest activities until late week rains forced them out of their fields again. Yield reports were mixed with some producers fearing that recent rains had adversely affected yields. Pasture conditions declined a bit with a few areas reporting frost, but, for the most part, conditions remained good. There were 3.9 days suitable for fieldwork. Topsoil moisture rated 2 percent short, 74 percent adequate, and 24 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture rated 2 percent short, 82 percent adequate, and 16 percent surplus. Continue reading at  TN_10_29_18. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-10-29-2018.


Tennessee Market Highlights

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Corn and cotton were up, soybeans and wheat were down for the week.

Futures prices declined for the week as tepid weekly export sales numbers for corn and soybeans resulted in further concerns about dispersing this year’s large domestic crop. Soybean and wheat export commitments (outstanding sales and accumulated exports) are well behind the pace to meet USDA projections. Currently, wheat export commitments are 45% of the USDA’s marketing year goal. This compares unfavorably to last year at 68% and the five year average of 64% for the same time period. Similarly, soybean export commitments are at 38% of USDA’s marketing year total, compared to 50% last year and a five year average of 57%. Chinese tariffs have obviously played a substantial role in reduced soybean export commitments. However, these are troubling numbers during harvest when export sales are typically at their highest. Reduced exports will increase domestic carry-over and further decrease cash prices. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.