All posts by Chuck Danehower, Extension Area Specialist - Farm Management

Tennessee Weekly Crop & Weather Report

HARVEST CONTINUES FORWARD

Tennessee producers were able to contribute a large portion of the week to harvesting thanks to 5.1 days suitable for fieldwork. Reports indicate that some corn harvest is complete and nearing completion. Many  welcome the cooler temperatures. Some report concerns of damage to crops and pasture due to recent rain. Yields are looking promising and winter animals are set to go out. Topsoil moisture rated 3 percent short, 75 percent adequate, and 22 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture rated 5 percent short, 81 percent adequate, and 14 percent surplus.  Continue reading at TN_10_15_18. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at  CropProg-10-15-2018.


Tennessee Market Highlights

Corn and cotton were up and soybeans and wheat were down for the week.

On Thursday, the USDA released the October Crop Production and WASDE reports. After the report corn and soybean prices were up cotton and wheat were neutral to slightly down.

U.S. corn production was projected at 14.8 billion bushels, up 1% compared to last year. National average yield was projected at an all-time record of 180.7 bu/acre, down 0.6 bu/acre compared to the  September estimate. Tennessee corn yield was projected at 174 bu/acre unchanged compared to last month. Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.


Crop Insurance & Soybean Damage

For more information, contact the author at:
Dr. Aaron Smith 
aaron.smith@utk.edu

 

This year has been a challenging one for soybean producers across Tennessee. Trade disruptions and record national average yield has pushed cash prices well below $8.00 in many locations in Tennessee. Additionally, the extended wet weather in late September has impacted soybean quality. Damage is ranging from minor with small discounts to extensive damage with loads getting rejected at elevators and barge points.

Farmers experiencing any of the following should contact their crop insurance agent immediately and report the issue: 1) notice quality issues in standing soybeans, 2) have cut a portion of a field and had quality dockage at the elevator, 3) or had a load rejected. A crop insurance adjustor is supposed to visit the field(s) in question within 24 hours of filing a claim to determine the extent of the damage and the steps forward.

Quality issues will be difficult to overcome when marketing the crop. For example, damage discounts to cash prices can be $1 to $1.50 for 5 to 9 percent damage, resulting in cash soybean prices well below $7.00 per bushel. Continue reading at Soybean Damage.


Supply and Demand Estimates and Profitability Outlook

The report is prepared monthly by Dr. Aaron Smith and Chuck Danehower.

 

October 11, 2018 – USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates

Corn

Market Reaction: December 2018 corn futures closed up 6 ½ cents at $3.69 ¼ with a trading range for the day of $3.60 ¼ to $3.73. December 2019 corn futures closed up 5 ½ cents at $4.02 ¼ with a trading range for the day of $3.94 ½ to $4.03. The market reacted positively to the small yield reduction on this month’s report. The increase in beginning stocks was factored into the market from the release of the September Grain Stocks report. A small increase in exports provides some hope for higher prices.

USDA Summary: This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, increased exports, reduced feed and residual use and larger ending stocks.  Corn production is forecast at 14.778 billion bushels, down 49 million on a reduced yield forecast.  Harvested area is virtually unchanged from last month.  Corn supplies are forecast record high, as a smaller crop is more than offset by an increase in beginning stocks based on the September 28 Grain Stocks report.  Exports are raised 75 million bushels reflecting U.S. price competitiveness and reduced exports for Russia.  Projected feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels based on a lower crop and indicated disappearance during 2017/18. Corn ending stocks for 2018/19 are raised 39 million bushels.  The projected midpoint for the season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at a range of $3.00 to $4.00 per bushel.  Continue reading at Supply and Demand Estimates and Profitability Outlook.


October 1 Crop Production Forecast

Released: October 11, 2018

October 1 Crop Production Forecast

Corn production in Tennessee is forecast at 119 million bushels, down 6 percent from the September forecast and down 2 percent from the  previous crop. Yield was estimated at 174 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month and up 3 bushels from the 2017 level. Acres for harvest as grain were estimated at 685,000 acres, down 25,000 acres from 2017. The U.S. corn production is forecast at 14.8 billion bushels, down slightly from the September forecast and up 1 percent from 2017. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 180.7 bushels per acre, down 0.6 bushels from last month and up 4.1 bushels from 2017. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 81.8 million acres, down slightly from the September forecast and down 1 percent from 2017. Continue reading at OctCrop18_TN.


Tennessee Weekly Crop & Weather Report

FARMERS RETURN TO FIELDS

Unseasonably warm temperatures and drier conditions allowed farmers to return to their fields. Corn, cotton, and soybean harvest all made excellent harvest, but some producers were worried that the recent heavy rains had adversely affected their yields. The high temperatures stressed livestock. There were 5.5 days suitable for field work, compared to 1.3 last week. Topsoil moisture rated 4 percent short, 79 percent adequate, and 17 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture rated 6 percent short, 78 percent adequate, and 16 percent surplus. Continue reading at TN_10_09_18. The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-10-09-2018.


Tennessee Market Highlights

Corn, soybeans, and wheat were up; cotton was down for the week.

A good bounce back week for grain and oilseed futures prices after last week’s bearish USDA stocks report. The rally this week was partially driven by a new trade deal (USMCA formally NAFTA) with Canada and Mexico as well as harvest weather concerns across the Midwest. As harvest progresses it remains unlikely that a significant rally in soybean or corn cash  prices occurs – due primarily to the size of this year’s crop – without movement in a trade deal with China, which does not appear to
be forthcoming. As such, producers should consider storage or delayed pricing alternatives that can extend the marketing interval.Continue reading at Tennessee Market Highlights.


Tennessee Weekly Crop & Weather Report

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INCESSANT RAINS BRING FIELD ACTIVITIES TO NEAR HALT

Lots of ill-timed rainfall this last week of September has delayed crop harvest and even drowned a few soybean fields. Before the rainfall yields were expected to be above average; now, we’ll just have to see. Everything else is as expected for September in TN. Matthew Deist, Marion County

There were 1.3 days suitable for field work, compared to 5.4 last week. Topsoil moisture rated 1 percent short, 46 percent adequate,  and 53 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture rated 2 percent short, 59 percent adequate, and 39 percent surplus. Continue reading at TN_10_01_18.  The U.S. Crop Progress report can be read at CropProg-10-01-2018.