UT Commodity Market Update

Author: Danny Morris, Ext Area Specialist - Farm Management Comments Off on UT Commodity Market Update

Corn: Over the last three weeks, March corn futures have traded sideways. On January 1, 2018, March corn futures opened at $3.51 and closed today at $3.52. September corn futures have followed the exact same pattern. September 2018 futures opened at $3.75 on January 1 and closed at $3.76 as of today’s market close. The latest USDA estimate has ending stocks forecasted to be higher and demand to be slightly lower. The USDA is also projecting that global production for coarse grains, which includes corn, to be higher for 2017/18. The size of the South American crop will also have an impact on the upside potential of corn futures. Cash basis is averaging $0.05 while new crop basis is currently averaging -$0.15 as of market close.

Soybeans: Over the last three weeks, March soybean futures have traded higher. On January 1, 2018, March soybean futures opened at $9.55 and closed today at $9.84. November soybean futures traded in the same manner. November 2018 futures opened at $9.72 on January 1 and closed at $10.00 as of today’s market close. The latest USDA estimate has ending stocks forecasted to be higher and demand to be stable. Although exports are forecasted to be lower, demand should remain stable due to strong crush demand. The USDA is also projecting that global production for soybeans to be higher for 2017/18 due to an expected increase in production in Brazil and the EU. Cash basis is averaging -$0.02 while new crop basis is currently averaging -$0.19 as of market close.

Wheat: Over the last three weeks, July wheat futures have traded sideways. July wheat futures opened at $4.53 on January 1, 2018, and closed at $4.52 today. The USDA is projecting that U.S. ending wheat stocks will increase by 29 million bushels. Domestically, the USDA expects that supply will increase and demand will decline. However, global wheat supplies for 2017/2018 were reduced due to lower beginning stocks. The fact still remains that wheat supplies are high and that fact is reflected in the current futures price. New crop basis averaged -$0.06 as of today’s market close.

Cotton: December futures closed today at 75.75. Cotton equities are ranging between $0.25 and $0.265 for old crop and approximately $0.18 for new crop cotton. Cotton acres are currently estimated to be between 385,000 and 400,000 acres for Tennessee. The past few years of great yields combined with lower grain prices will make producers look at planting cotton again in 2018.

West Tennessee Grain Bids 1-22-2018

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