UT Extension Commodity Market Update

Author: Danny Morris, Ext Area Specialist - Farm Management Comments Off on UT Extension Commodity Market Update

Corn: September corn futures declined by $0.05 this week. The decline can be attributed to a lack of weather concerns. The forecast for most of the Midwest is cooler temperatures.  On Monday, the USDA reported that 85% is already silking with 23% of the crop beginning to dough. Also, the USDA reported that 61% of the crop as being good-to-excellent. In the picture below, you can see that almost 50% of the corn crop is in the crescent shape of Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. Those states were rated, on average, 63% good-to-excellent. This indicates that we ought to have a good crop if the Midwest remains cool along with ample moisture. Any forecasts with adverse conditions would trigger a small rally in corn prices. As of market close today, the average basis for new crop corn equaled -$0.14 in West Tennessee.

 

 

 

Soybeans: Soybean prices fell out of bed this week. November soybean futures declined by $0.43 this week. The decline can be attributed to better weather forecasts for the Midwest and lower exports. On Monday, the USDA reported that 82% of the crop is already blooming with 48% of the crop beginning to set pods. Also, the USDA reported that 61% of the crop as being good-to-excellent. In the picture below, you can see that almost 52% of the corn crop is in the crescent shape of Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. Those states were rated, on average, 60% good-to-excellent. This indicates that that we ought to have a good crop if the Midwest receives favorable weather throughout August. Negative weather conditions could result in a small rally in soybean prices. As of market close today, the average basis for new crop soybeans equaled -$0.17 in West Tennessee. 

 

 

 

Wheat: Wheat futures came under pressure this week due to lower exports. Russia indicated that its wheat exports to date are 22% higher than last year. Global wheat supplies continue to be rather large and are a major roadblock for higher wheat prices. However, prices are still above the $5.00 mark for West Tennessee farmers. For those with wheat in their rotation, this may present a selling opportunity for a portion of the 2018 wheat crop. As of market close today, the average basis for new crop wheat equaled -$0.14 in West Tennessee.

Cotton: Cotton equities are averaging $0.15 in West Tennessee.

Take Home Message: Farmers should continue to watch the markets for any signs of a rally in either corn or beans to book additional sales. Wheat producers should evaluate their cost structure to consider booking a portion of the 2018 crop.

West Tennessee Grain Bids 8-4-2017

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