UT Commodity Market Update 1/6/2017

Author: Danny Morris, Ext Area Specialist - Farm Management Comments Off on UT Commodity Market Update 1/6/2017

West Tennessee Grain Elevator Bids can be viewed here: West Tennessee Grain Bids 1-6-2017

Corn: September corn futures have increased by $0.10 over the past two weeks. The increase can be attributed to strong export sales and a better sentiment across the commodity complex. Over the past month, the increase in oil prices and stock prices has created a positive mood that continues to spill over into commodity markets. Despite the $0.10 increase in prices, the corn market is limited by large supplies due to the extremely large 2016 corn crop. This will limit any upside in corn prices. However, corn prices will likely be helped out by a reduction in corn acres in 2017. The low prices we are experiencing now will keep many producers from planting as much corn, which should help push corn prices higher in the coming months.

Soybeans: November soybean futures have declined by $0.45 over the past 30 days. The decline in soybean prices can be attributed to a higher U.S. dollar and the pending South American soybean harvest. The insurgence of South American soybeans will force U.S. prices lower in order to remain competitive in the export market. Exports for U.S. soybeans continue to be strong with the latest report showing exports sales beating USDA expectations. Producers that are looking to plant a large soybean crop for 2017 should be evaluating their crop budgets to see if they can pencil out a profit at current prices. Many producers will be holding out for $10.00 soybeans so that they can be sure to lock in a profit. One factor that is keeping producers from selling too many soybeans is the uncertainty surrounding the Extend soybean technology. Producers that have not yet grown this seed have not seen its yield potential on their farms yet. Farmers should be sure to create a crop budget and consider selling some bushels at levels above variable and fixed costs.

Wheat: July wheat futures have increased by $0.28 over the past two weeks. The increase in wheat prices can be attributed to the fear that the wheat crop will be damaged in the Southern Plains. Cold temperatures and a lack of snow coverage has the industry thinking that the wheat crop may be harmed. Farm Futures reported that winter wheat seedings could fall to the lowest levels ever since 1913. If that happens, domestic wheat supplies will be lowered. However, the world is still full of wheat and market fundamentals do not support much higher prices. Pricing opportunities for Tennessee farmers could be very limited between now and July. Any major rally should be viewed as a selling point.

Cotton: March cotton closed at 73.99 with cotton equities ranging between $0.12 and $0.14. Strong yields and stable prices will cause many Tennessee farmers to increase their cotton acres in 2017. The outlook for cotton looks to be stable with some analysts forecasting prices to stay in the $0.65 to $0.70 range. This is accounting for all loan draws, equities, and gin/seed rebates.

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